Publishable Summary. Summary Description of the project context and main objectives

Transcription

1 Publishable Summary Summary Description of the project context and main objectives Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from tens of nations along coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. The catastrophe shocked the world. Particularly unfortunate were the casualties far away from the source region in NW Sumatra. In India, Sri Lanka, and Somalia, where warning of the populations would be possible many casualties would be avoided. The Indian Ocean 2004 mega-tsunami demonstrated the need for operational early warning systems around the world. However, tsunami warning systems are only one of the various components of tsunami preparedness and resilience. Seven years after the Indian Ocean tsunami, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in 2011 devastated the world best-prepared country for tsunami. This event dramatically showed the limitations of our scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts, and mitigation measures. More than 15,000 people died or are missing. Also, more than 250,000 buildings were totally or partially destroyed, including coastal defenses and critical infrastructures, as globally diffused in real time by the mass media and reported in many technical reports. In Kessenuma, Japan, even though the emergency manager ordered the residents to evacuate, even while the earthquake was in progress and without waiting for the official warning, over one thousand were killed. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on tsunami resilience of the coastal communities. This event reopened scientific and public discussions on the need and upgrade of coastal defenses. Post event strategies for coastal areas recovery became a topic of debate among the policymakers and coastal management agencies. Most types of known potential tsunami sources exist in Europe and NEAM (North East Atlantic Mediterranean and Connected Seas) region. These sources include large earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Tsunami source areas in the Mediterranean include geological structures with well known neo-tectonic activity namely the Hellenic Arc, and the North and East Anatolian Faults and other fracture zones in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Tsunami source areas in the Atlantic include the complex seismogenic environment off Southwest Iberia that generated megatsunamigenic earthquakes in the past and the mega-landslides in the Norwegian margin. ASTARTE focus in the well known Santorini and Stromboli volcanic complexes and investigates the Canary Islands and Phlegrean Fields as possible tsunami generation areas.

2 ASTARTE combines research on long term recurrence of large tsunamis with research on generation mechanisms. ASTARTE combines the development of new computational tools to describe the tsunami impact on-shore with results of physical experiments on tsunami interaction with coastal structures. ASTARTE develops new approaches to quantify tsunami vulnerability and risk. The objectives of ASTARTE are to improve knowledge on: (i) Long term recurrence of tsunamis (ii) Tsunami generation mechanisms; (iii) New computational tools for hazard assessment; (iv) Tsunami interactions with coastal structures; (v) Tsunami detection capabilities, forecast, and early warning tools in the NEAM region; (vi) New methods to quantify vulnerability and risk and to identify the key components of tsunami resilience and their implementation in the NEAM region. ASTARTE will guide the implementation of improvements of tsunami research in detection and warning systems. ASTARTE will help mitigate tsunami impacts, and will foster the preparation of tsunami building codes relevant to the NEAM region. A particular focus is the societal implication of tsunami warning and mitigation, education and training. The outcomes of this project will improve tsunami resilience in the NEAM coastal areas. The ultimate goal of ASTARTE is to reach a higher level of tsunami resilience in the NEAM region and, ultimately, to save lives and assets. Description of work during the reporting period ASTARTE consortium accomplished all milestones of this reporting period ensuring the successive production of deliverables and significant progress towards the full objectives of the project. ASTARTE website was set up [WP1], with one area open to general public and one area reserved to the consortium (members area). The public area includes news and events related to the project, open deliverables or information of general interest to the community. The members area is an effective communication channel for consortium members. Research on long-term recurrence rates of tsunamis [WP2] in critical NEAM areas focus earthquake, landslide, and volcanic tsunamigenic sources. ASTARTE researchers performed some marine surveys for the acquisition of long cores to feed the objective of better knowledge of tsunami recurrence. Also, onshore surveys targeted palaeotsunami deposits in selected areas. The understanding of risk-driving tsunami sources [WP3] progressed with the completion of a reference

3 document [D3.12] focused on the study of the basic source processes and mapping of tunami sources in the NEAM region. ASTARTE research focus on the upgrade of the existing numerical model infrastructures using highperformance computing techniques [WP4]. The final product of this work [D4.13] clarifies the quantification of uncertainty and the methodology for sensitivity analysis in tsunami calculations. ASTARTE addresses the stability and performance of coastal defences and critical structures under tsunami impact [WP5]. To do this, ASTARTE reviewed lessons from recent tsunamis [D5.3] studied tsunami interaction with the seabed and its impacts on aquaculture, ecosystems, and marine protected areas [D5.10]. Additionally, ASTARTE investigated boundary layer processes, sediment transport, and other near-shore phenomena [D 5.11]. Research on the stability of coastal structures (rubble mound breakwaters, vertical breakwaters and sea walls), based on laboratory experiments is in progress. The transfer of research knowledge to the operational environment is the only strategy that can lead to better tools and means at the disposal of the citizens. Two of the basic components of operational systems are the detection and the communication infrastructure [WP6], needed to broaden the forecast and warning skills of the NEAM area [WP7]. In this sense, ASTARTE developed a new database of the existing tsunami early warning relevant infrastructures in the NEAM region [D6.4]. The main factors that contribute to risk assessment are hazard and vulnerability [WP8]. In both cases, there is a need to increase the standardisation of methods in use in the European area. ASTARTE completed a review of deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment methods, with application in the NEAM region and the ASTARTE test sites [D8.8]. Moreover, a review on the methods to assess exposure and vulnerability to tsunamis, applied to the NEAM region and the ASTARTE test sites [D8.14]. The ultimate goal of ASTARTE is the building of tsunami resilient societies [WP9]. It is of paramount importance to learn from past experiences on very active tsunami areas in the world. To do this, ASTARTE reviewed the work published on tsunami resilient communities around the world [D9.2] and prepared a report on preparedness skills, resources and attitudes within the communities [D97]. ASTARTE dissemination activities [WP10] included presentations in top scientific meetings publication of research papers and meetings with end-users in ASTARTE test-sites. The presentation of ASTARTE smartphone application (members version) took place in October 2014 during ASTARTE

4 general assembly [D10.5]. ASTARTE consortitium distributed factsheets and newsletters also available in Expected Results and their social and economic impact ASTARTE will improve knowledge on tsunami generation involving novel empirical data and statistical analyses so that the long-term recurrence of large events in sensitive areas of the NEAM could be established; ASTARTE includes the development of numerical techniques for tsunami simulation concentrating in real-time codes, novel statistical emulations and refined methods for the assessment of tsunami hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will contribute to the implementation of new warning tools. This work is developed back to back with the existent National and Regional Tsunami Warning Centers of the NEAM region. The present design of the NEAMTWS developed under the umbrella of IOC, benefits from the incorporation of most of these achievements. ASTARTE results on physical experiments on tsunami impact on coastal structures namely harbor defense structures will serve as the basis for recommendations and guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes. ASTARTE research on tsunami hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment will support coastal management activities and decision makers so that sustainability and resilience of coastal communities could be increased. The integration of scientific, policy and societal views is of paramount importance for tsunami resilience in the Euro-Mediterranean region. However, there is a large heterogeneity in terms of social structure, territorial management policies, access of populations to technical information, and civil protection agents in place. ASTARTE will develop conceptual models and strategies that will take this diversity into account. The overall results of ASTARTE initiative will lead to the goal of the European/NEAM Horizon 2020 strategy: to foster tsunami resilient communities. Tsunamis are a societal problem in the NEAM regions due to the existence of very high populated coastal areas. The cost of protecting them by building protective/defenses is out of the question because of the frequency of tsunami events. ASTARTE fosters the real-time mitigation through the improvement of existent Tsunami Warning Systems. The performance of the TWS improved since the Indian Ocean Event, but there is still a long way to go in the NEAM region. The ASTARTE

5 consortium will contribute to ameliorate the quality and in-time information provided to the endangered populations. The magnitude and the global character of tsunami threat makes it the ideal process to foster the shaping of modern warning systems. These systems focused on the safety of citizens will benefit from ASTARTE the scientific and technological skills and results. The market that will be created concerns different elements of such a system: earthquake monitoring (mature market in what concerns land stations but still developing market in what concerns marine devices and marine communications), geological monitoring centered on landslide hazard (technology still dependent on apparatus developed by research groups, but that will extend in the future, together with the on-going effort for the sustainable exploration of the seafloor), modeling and forecasting (mature market in what concerns conventional computer and communication systems but with possible developments in the use of low-cost graphical processors for fast and cost-effective simulations), dissemination (fast developing market in what concerns the use of mobile devices to access warning information, and to cooperate in the acquisition and spread of observations). We expect that ASTARTE approach will contribute to the development of innovative technologies in consonance with the EU2020 flagship initiative Innovation Union. ASTARTE 1 st Annual Meeting Siracusa, Italy, October 2015