Lessons Learned from Past Tsunamis Warning and Emergency Response

Transcription

1 UNESCO IOC CTIC US NOAA ITIC Regional Training Workshop on Strengthening Tsunami Warning and Emergency Response Standard Operating Procedures and the Development of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS PTWC New Enhanced Products November 2013, Bridgetown, Barbados Lessons Learned from Past Tsunamis Warning and Emergency Response Laura Kong UNESCO/IOC NOAA International Tsunami Information Center Masahiro Yamamoto Retired UNESCO/IOC

2 Japan 2011 Tsunami Experience Masahiro YAMAMOTO UNESCO IOC

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4 Video from Shizugawa High School 3 schools are located in higher place

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6 Released Warning & Information from JMA

7 From Disaster Management Center

8 Tsunami Evacuation Building

9 65% of casualty are more than 60 years old (students are safe at school) casualty population

10 3 min

11 12 h 34 min

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14 2 days tsunami records (Western part of Japan)

15 Ocean bottom pressure (ERI)

16 Coastal observation (PARI)

17 Tsunami records by GPS Buoy system

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19 Tsunami heights red: inundation height, blue: run-up height (more than 5,000 points are surveyed)

20 Sendai: Tsunami Hazard map (blue area) and actual inundation area (pink) Hazard Map Assumption 1896 Tsunami (21,900) 1933 Tsunami (3,064)

21 Tarou: Hazard Map (red area: more than 6 m) Actual Inundation Area (red line)

22 Seawalls overtopped and destroyed Seawall access door was closed and survived the tsunami, but entire wall was destroyed Concrete-lined earth-filled seawall destroyed by tsunami flow in Taro Courtesy I. Robertson

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24 Reconstruction Plan Before After? Basic Idea for reconstruction

25 Elapse Actions JMA: Major Tsunami Warning M: min 6 m for Miyagi, 3 m for Iwate & Fukushima 10 PTWC: Warning for Japan, Russia M: 7.9 (JMA) 13 JMA: observed tsunami height; 20 cm 28 (Updated Warning) JMA: more than 10 m for Miyagi 6 m for Iwate & Fukushima 3 m for Aomori 33 DART (E off Tohoku): 1.1 m tsunami 57 PTWC: M: DART (S of Kuril): 0.7 m 1 : 22 JMA M: : 44 JMA: Mw: 8.8

26 Comments to JMA from the 3 rd party 1 st Warning was extremely lower Improvement of the Warning message; clear and simple message (3 m tsunami warning & 0.2 m observed tsunami height were understood as safety information) Multiple procedures for M estimation Need off-shore tsunami measurement Challenge for a gigantic tsunami (M: 9)

27 JMA Tsunami Warning Center (6 minutes records in Tokyo) 2 Centers; Tokyo & Osaka Identical System 24/7 continuous operation Mutual back-up Emergent Operation in strong shaking

28 Safety operation in the Center All equipment and furniture should be fixed

29 No Common Sense for Tsunamis Tsunamis are Not Common - Often 1 st Time For individuals at risk For government officials that must respond (incl. TWCs) Tsunamis Can Be Learned From Tsunami wave characteristics from physics / models Human response behavior from social science Each Tsunami is Unique Warning / Response Planning Needs Imagination. What situations might occur? How to prepare/respond based on best science? Procedures recorded in SOPs Learn from the Past to Improve Future Response

30 Recent Tsunamis to Learn From Since tsunamis > 1m, 41 deadly Since deadly tsunamis (8 in the Pacific Ocean, 5 in the Indian Ocean) Dec 2004 Indian Ocean (230,000 lives) Jul 2006 Java (668 lives) Apr 2007 Solomon Islands (52 lives) Sep 2009 Samoa (192 lives) Oct 2010 Mentawai (400 lives) Feb 2010 Chile (156 lives) Mar 2011 Japan (16,000 lives) Feb 2013 Solomon Islands (10 lives) What have we learned for early warning?

31 September 1992 Nicaragua Tsunami Ms=7 earthquake off the coast of Nicaragua Very little shaking along the coast Little or no tsunami expected, but Large tsunami struck 116 lives lost Lessons Learned Slow Earthquake Use Mw, not Ms Not always shaking

32 New Guinea Tsunami - Jul 1998 Mw 7.1 earthquake no tsunami expected, but Large tsunami impact 2200 lives lost Probable cause was undersea landslide triggered by the earthquake Lessons Learned Tsunami possibility after any large earthquake Roar from the sea may be only real warning

33 Sumatra Tsunami - Dec 2004 Mw 9.2 earthquake size not known for 4 hours Rupture direction and extent only known later Unrecognized hazard nothing like this expected End-to-end alerting not possible Lessons Learned Use new methods to measure huge quakes Techniques to quickly gauge rupture area Expect 1000-yr event Use forecast models End-to-end alerts

34 Japan Tsunami Mar 2011 Mw 9.0 earthquake that big was not expected First alert in 3 min, but earthquake size and forecast tsunami impacts too small Human behavior some did not evacuate Lessons Learned Expect 1000-yr event Conservative first alert message Study/address how to motivate right actions

35 What to do. Prepare in advance. Have SOPs for your organisation Have SOPS across organisations Test SOPs against scenarios and across organisations Have good relationships with key people in all response organisations Know who needs fast notification Know who to call for help (scale up) Have a variety of sources for information Bookmark those sources

36 What to do. Have access to seismic data (or at least the earthquake information) Have access to sea level data (has a tsunami occurred?) Understand the principles of tsunami generation and propagation Be able to estimate likely wave arrival times on your coast Understand which local, offshore earthquakes are likely to cause tsunamis because of their size and location Understand the likely distant tsunami sources

37 In Conclusion Every tsunami is unique and can provide new information to improve early warning The problem is dynamic technologies for detection, evaluation, forecasting, and alerting keep changing Coastal vulnerabilities change with increasing coastal populations and infrastructure Human behavior and how to affect it keeps changing (e.g., social media) We must continue to share our knowledge and experiences to improve the system.

38 Complementary Note Tsunami may arrive before residents receive tsunami warnings Share Understanding of the Limitation of Tsunami Forecast Technique and NOT Rely Only on Tsunami Warnings Build Up Public Awareness When a strong shake is felt, leave the seashore immediately and take shelter to the place of safety even if a tsunami warning is not issued

39 UNESCO IOC CTIC US NOAA ITIC Regional Training Workshop on Strengthening Tsunami Warning and Emergency Response Standard Operating Procedures and the Development of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS PTWC New Enhanced Products November 2013, Bridgetown, Barbados Thank You Masahiro Yamamoto UNESCO/IOC Laura Kong UNESCO/IOC NOAA International Tsunami Information Center Charles McCreery Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

40 Tsunami Warning (Role of each Center) National Tsunami Warning center... Issues tsunami warning Takes measures for dissemination of tsunami warning Makes efforts to disseminate tsunami warning to the public, asking for cooperation of the press Emergency Response Center... Disseminate tsunami warning to the residents Warn the residents and relevant organizations to take actions against the expected disasters Broadcasting services... Deliver broadcasts which assist in preventing disaster or reducing damages, in case a disaster is occurring or expected to occur

41 Possible Tsunami Warning Messages (example of Japan) A. Tsunami Warning (the 1st issuance) Regions where tsunamis are expected Expected tsunami height B. Tsunami Warning Expected arrival time and height of tsunamis C. Tide and Tsunami Information Time of the highest tide etc. D. Tsunami Observations Information Observed tsunami at sea level stations (Note: Early cancellation if confirmed)