Dr. ELIAS A., International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, AUB - 15 Oct 2012

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1 3/3/14 Dr. Ata ELIAS, Geology department AUB Outline 1. Tsunami events: 2. The physical and geological tsunami event 3. Global tsunami mitigation efforts Tsunami hazard 1. The tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean 2. Tsunami hazard in Lebanon 3. Conclusion 1

2 Generated by a sudden displacement of important volume of solids inside a large body of water. This geological event can result from Submarine earthquakes Submarine (or coastal) landsides, Submarine (or coastal) volcanic eruptions Offshore impact of objects from the space A Tsunami wave long wavelength (~200Km) Velocity is related to the water depth where wave is propagating Can show all patterns of regular wave interference, diffraction Its amplitude is modulated by the characteristics of the seafloor (shape and depth) and the basin where it is propagating. 2

3 Earthquakes that happen in the sea are the main tsunami source. The extent of the inundation zone depends on different parameters such as: the source strength, position, directivity the seafloor characteristics the coastal area slope, material, shape and position. The runup can be very different along the same coast. Propagation of the Sumatra 2004 tsunami. Titov et al., Science 2005 The tsunami propagates very long distances, Can go around coasts and islands, The height of the waves is always higher over the coasts. Dr. ELIAS A. Workshop Jan/05/2011 3

4 Our understanding of tsunami waves and hazard has largely increased since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster. Tsunami research production has greatly increased in number and diversified including many aspects such as reconstructing tsunami catalogs from historical and geological records, modeling tsunami waves propagation establishing inundation maps, building tsunami alert systems. 4

5 3/3/14 Map of Earthquakes in the Mediterranean area between Known sources of tsunami in the Mediterranean: - Earthquakes, - Volcanic eruptions. Main tsunami sources in the Mediterranean basin: Hellenic area (Crete), Cyprus, and mainly Lebanese offshore. Sicily Cyprus Crete 365 and 1303 Some (historical) tsunamis in the area: Santorini (-1500), Crete 365, Lebanon 551, Crete 1303, Messina 1908, Rhodes 1956, Algeria

6 B01305 SØRENSEN ET AL.: TSUNAMI HAZARD IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA B01305 Sørensen et al 2010, JGR Figure 3. Tsunami propagation scenario for a M = 8.5 earthquake in the eastern Hellenic Arc. PCTA: Peak Coastal Tsunami Amplitude The Lebanese coast has witnessed more than a tsunami throughout its history and before. The AD 551 earthquake has left the greatest impact in its historical record. 6of15 6

7 3/3/14 A historical text about the 9July, AD 551 earthquake. As for the terrible disaster and the great and remarkable portent which happened in the city of Beirut in Phoenicia, when the earthquake took place and the cities collapsed, we have decided to make it a warning sign for the knowing of posterity. For when the earthquake came from heaven, the sea withdrew and retreated from Beirut and the other coastal cities of Phoenicia for a distance of nearly two miles; the dreadful depths of the sea became visible and various and amazing sights were revealed: sunken ships full of different cargoes and other ones which suddenly, when the sea withdrew from the land, were moored in the harbours, settled on the ground and they were broken to pieces when the sea left them and withdrew on God s command Then, by a secret command, a tremendous surge of the sea rushed up to return to its original depth, overwhelmed and consumed all these wretched people in the depths of its swirling waters. And God rolled the waters of the sea over them, as the flood burst forth and flowed back to its former abundance. As the sea was rising up against them from behind, the earthquake brought down the city in front of them. (John of Ephesus (AD )) July 551AD Eq, M~7.5 The A.D. 551 earthquake in historical records: - Severe damage along the coast from Tripoli to Tyre: Beirut jewel of Phoenicia destroyed, pple of the inhabitants killed, End of a flourishing Roman city Tripoli drowned. - less severe destructions inland. - followed by a tsunami Elias et al, Geology 2007 Elias et al, Geology 2007 Elias A. - UN workshop Feb Beirut 7

8 Research results show evidence for tsunami potential in Eastern Mediterranean in general, and in Lebanon in particular. The tsunami threat is real. For more details check poster outside. Transported boulders along the coast: a possible tsunami product. 8

9 Difficulties in researching Tsunami hazards in Lebanon: - The important man-made modification of natural sites. - The missing information on the shallow bathymetry of the offshore. Important points to remember: - A tsunamigenic earthquake can happen anytime without warning. - A tsunami wave propagates very fast for long distances: Based on the distances and the average water depths : offshore. We may have ~10mn before the wave reaches Beirut if the source is in Cyprus. We may have less than 3 mn if the source is from within the Lebanese Preliminary studies suggest that the wave height we should expect over the Lebanese coast in case of a near source is ~5-7m.(**) (**)- This is a rough, but logical estimation. It needs more investigations. 9

10 UNESCOPRESS Progress Towards a Tsunami Early Warning System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas On 27 and 28 November 2012, the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS*) will conduct its first tsunami exercise since its inception in 2005 under the aegis of UNESCO s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC). Efforts that need to be done to increase the resilience of Lebanon facing tsunami hazards: 1- Establishing Tsunami alert system 2- Supporting and facilitating research on hazard and risk (exple: shallow bathymetry) 3- updating our hazard and risk models and preparedness plans according to new research results. 4- raise awareness among citizens and urban designers. 10

11 Thank you. 11

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