Adapting to Climate Change in Black River First Nation
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1 Adapting to Climate Change in Black River First Nation Dr. Brian G. Kotak, General Manager -Manitoba Model Forest Jack Johnson, Special Projects Black River First Nation Climate Change & Health Adaptation Workshop South Beach Casino Hotel February 1, 2017
2 Presentation Outline Model Forests and the Model Forest Network Climate Resilience Guidebook for Rural Communities The process and results for Black River 2
3 3
4 Pathways to Climate Change Resilience Guidebook developed by the CMFN to assist rural municipalities and communities to plan for, and adapt to, a changing climate 4
5 Context for the Project BRFN Elders have observed significant changes in climate over the last years Changes in temperature and precipitation are having an impact on the environment in their traditional area, safety, health, infrastructure and ability to access the land Want to be better prepared for the future: TAKE ACTION NOW Project was funded through AANDC Climate Change Adaptation Program 5
6 Getting Prepared Establishment of a small Community Core Team Members of Elders committee Youth Chief and Council Departmental reps Identify the community champions External experts 6
7 Learn about Climate Change Brief intro to weather and climate change IMPORTANT: Focus first on the community s observations Changes in temperature and precipitation Changes to seasons Finally, bring in the experts Compile and compare past (1950 to 1980) and current (1980 to 2010) climate data Use Global Circulation Models (CGMs) to identify potential future climate outcomes 7
8 Community Observations on Climate Warmer, shorter winters More frequent freeze/thaw events More intense rainstorms in late spring/early summer More wind storms (particularly off Lake Winnipeg) More thunderstorms and severe weather Hotter, drier summers (late summer) More variable climate 8
9 Recent Changes in Climate (1950 to 1980 vs 1980 to 2010) Snapshot Spring (March to May) Change Temperature Warmer +0.9 o C Precipitation Much Wetter +34 mm Summer (June to August) Temperature Warmer +0.6 o C Precipitation Much Wetter +53 mm Fall (September to November) Temperature Warmer +1.4 o C Precipitation No trend - Winter (December to February) Temperature Warmer +1.3 o C Precipitation No trend - 9
10 Small Changes in Climate Large Impacts The changes observed by community members match the climate record (meteorological data) These small changes in temperature (e.g., 0.6 to 1.4 o C) have resulted in large changes (impacts) already observed by Black River community members As we will see in the next few slides 10
11 Future Changes in Climate based on GCMs (to 2080) Snapshot Change Spring (March to May) Temperature Warmer +1.9 to 5.5 o C Precipitation Possibly Wetter Up to +19 mm Summer (June to August) Temperature Warmer +2.2 to 5.7 o C Precipitation Drier or wetter -16 to +41 mm Fall (September to November) Temperature Warmer +2.5 to 5.0 o C Precipitation Possibly Wetter Up to +11 mm Winter (December to February) Temperature Much Warmer +3.7 to 7.5 o C Precipitation Wetter Up to +17 mm 11
12 BRFN: Impacts, Risks and Opportunities Climate Observations Increased thunder storms Drier, hotter summers More variability in climate (dry vs wet years) Impact on Environment Increased lightning strikes/fires, severe winds Increased forest fires Longer, more intense fire season Variability in water flow and quality (dirtier water) Impact on Community Increased tornados + emergency situations Emergency evacuations, impact of smoke on health Current water treatment processes not adequate 12
13 BRFN: Impacts, Risks and Opportunities Climate Observations Increased/more intense rain storms in spring Increased wind storms Impact on Environment Flooding Increased erosion on rivers and beaches NW winds off Lake Wpg cause water to back up on Black and O Hanly rivers Impact on Community Flooding of community roads, premature filling of sewage lagoon Loss of property on rivers Loss of beaches on Lake Winnipeg Erosion of river banks, potential for sewage release to enter drinking water intake 13
14 Decide Priorities Can be based on simple, rapid assessment techniques or more detailed analysis (e.g., vulnerability assessment) BRFN Process Degree of impact to community Ability of community to adapt (human, financial, social resources) 14
15 Plan and Take Action Improve emergency preparedness and response Develop emergency preparedness and response plan (evacuations, tornados, muster locations, back up generator) STATUS: complete Protect community from wildfires Develop wildfire protection plans (Fire Smart Plans) for community and proposed cottage subdivision STATUS: complete 15
16 Plan and Take Action Identify areas of shoreline erosion problems Conduct shoreline erosion assessment STATUS: complete 16
17 Plan and Take Action Improve safety of drinking water Relocate raw water intake to prevent contamination from sewage releases Upgrade water treatment technology STATUS: complete ($5.5 million) Increase capacity of sewage lagoon to accommodate for more intense rainstorms STATUS: in progress 17
18 THANK YOU 18
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