Increasing Resilience through Earth Observation- IncREO

Transcription

1 Increasing Resilience through Earth Observation- IncREO Numerical simulations and operational forecast of the hydro-meteorological hazards along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. Results from the EU FP7 project IncREO. Assoc. Prof. Anna Kortcheva, PhD & Vasko Galabov (NIMH-BAS) International seminar Interagency Interaction. Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, Centre of Excellence

2 Content The objective, project facts, partners Work package 202 (WP202):Winds, waves, storm-surges Climate change and Coastal hazards Operational system of NIMH for marine forecasts Downscaling procedure high resolution WIND fields Simulation of waves and storm-surges Use of the EO satelitte data for validation of IncREO results IncREO Bulgarian END-USERS IncREO products European system METEOALARM Early Warning System, activities, interagency interaction

3 The overall objective of IncREO IncREO aims to provide actors responsible for disaster management, risk prevention, civil protection and also spatial planning with EObased solutions contributing particularly to an improved preparedness and mitigation planning for areas highly vulnerable to natural disasters and already noticeable climate change trends. The types of IncREO products are mainly assets maps and hazard / risk and vulnerability maps,extreme events - results from numerical simulations.

4 Project facts GMES/Copernicus FP7 project IncREO (Increasing Resilience through Earth Observation), GA number Duration: 2 years ( ) European consortium of 9 partners from industry, science and public institutions

5 Parthers Spot Image SA (Astrium GEO), France geomer GmbH, Germany GeoVille Information System, Austria University Twente (ITC), the Netherlands UNESCO, France/Italy NIMH, Bulgaria Meteo France, France Romanian Space Agency, ROSA, Romania Infoterra GmbH (Astrium GEO), Germany

6 WP202 WINDS, WAVES, STORM-SURGES Partners: Meteo-France (MF) and the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH-BAS) Winds, waves and storm-surges are connected to each other and therefore the studies of these phenomena is the key to the understanding of the impacts that climate change will have on coastal areas. Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014

7 Transferability Two areas have been considered in WP202, the French and Bulgarian coastlines respectively:

8 Climate Change and Coastal Hazards The global climate change in the mean temperature is predicted to provoke a rise of the global sea level. This will have a negative impact on a big amount of coastal areas all over the world. Land areas will be flooded and big amounts of sediments will be eroded Even if the risks concerns a relatively distant future it is important for the coastal municipalities to start make investigations and try to gain an overview of the potential risks connected to a rising sea level (EU Floods Directive)

9 Climate change and Coastal hazards Report of EC about Climate Change: Coastal erosion poses the greatest threat to the coastal zones of Bulgaria. About 45% of the coastline is currently subject to erosion, assumed to be caused by a combination of human activities as well as natural events such as extreme wind waves. The risk of flooding due to Sea Level Rise (SLR) is rather limited as SLR is expected to be modest, tides are non-existent (8-9 sm) and currents are very weak along the Black Sea shoreline. Also the significant altitude of most parts of the Bulgarian coastal zones (70%) makes the risk of coastal flooding less severe. IPCC - Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change (5 th Assessment report) The total sea level =Storm-surges+tides+SLR+WAVES (wave set-up, wave run-up, overtopping)

10 Hydro-meteorological hazards Hydro-meteorological events (strong winds, high waves and storm-surges) are DRIVERS to the coastal HAZARDS (flooding and coastal erosion)! Comprehensive information about stormsurges and wind-waves along and Bulgarian Black Sea coast will be used by end-users for identification, risk assessment and risk management of the potential areas vulnerable to flooding and coastal erosion.

11 Storm surge & waves =sea level rise + waves! Storm surge Reached level (tide gauges) Predicted level (tides) Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014

12 Sea level rise and coastal flooding Implementation of the EU Flood Directive (NIMH Methodology) Map of the inundation near the town of Kiten (Bulgarian coastal zone of the Black Sea). Projected 100-year flooding area. BDBS-Varna, Bulgaria

13 From observations to numerical predictions Observations ERS, ASCAT Vents MODIS Forecast model SSMIS IASI AIRS Data assimilation Wave & storm surge numerical models Centre of Excellence, Sofia, Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014

14 Simulation of historical storm situations Simulation of historical storm situations is examining potential coastal hazards a key tool in In the absence of measured data, site-specific storm surges and wave hindcasts satisfy the need for historic data One of the priorities of IncREO project is to generate high resolution wind forcing for the wave and storm-surge models, in order to describe in details the features and processes which characterize hazards within the coastal areas of France and Bulgaria. Crisis Management Kick-off meeting, and Disaster Brussels, Response Jan. Centre of Excellence, 23/24, Sofia, 2013 Bulgaria, 1/3 July, 2014

15 Operation system of NIMH-BAS for marine forecasts

16 Downscaling -tool for obtaining the high resolution fields Downscaling, proposed in the framework of this project (WP202), targets the study of risks of extreme winds and dangerous coastal events for France and Bulgaria Downscaled atmospheric data (winds and sea level pressure) is highly useful for detailed hindcast of waves and storm surges in coastal areas of France and Bulgaria ECMWF ERA-Interin reanalyses resolution:79 km spatial and 6 hours temporal IncREO downscaled fields 10 km spatial and 1 hour temporal resolution

17 Region and orography of the limited area NWP model ALADIN

18 Downscaled wind field This map provides a snapshot of downscaled ERA-Interin ECMWF reanalyse (from 79 km to 10 km) wind field over the Black Sea during the max of storm situation on February 2012

19 Simulation of past storm surge events with Aladin downscaling from ERA-Interim

20 Geo-referenced storm-surge model output Example of BS_ (Bulgarian case): Maximum storm-surge

21 Geo-referenced wave model output Significant wave height

22 Validation The EO satellite data has been used for the validation study: The altimeter wave data from TOPEX-POSEIDON, ERS1/2, Envisat and JASON1/2 satellites used for the validation of the SWAN and WAVEWATCH III wave models using in the hindcast study of WP202 (NIMH) The scatterometer wind data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on board the Metop-A satellite used for the validation of the regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN (NIMH)

23 Increasing resilience trough satellite Earth observation

24 JASON 2 satellite track & model SWH

25 End users involvement French end-user : SCHAPI (Central Service for Hydrometeorology and Support to flood forecasting part of the Directorate General for Risk Prevention, under the Ministry on Ecology, Sustainable development and Energy) Bulgarian end-users: 1. Chief Directorate Fire Safety and Civil Protection (CD FSCP), Ministry of Interior (Bulgaria) - Mr. Stoycho Andreev. Helps the project with dissemination of WARNINGS. 2. Basin Directorate for Water Management in the Black Sea Region (Ministry of Environment and Waters). Risk management planning in the framework of the EU Water and Flood Directives - Director of BD Mr. Yavor Dimitrov. BDBS has provided the project with DEM and GIS layers for the RISC ASSESSMENT.

26 METEOALARM French and Bulgarian vigilance systems: hazard-based NIMH European METEOALARM Red: Utmost vigilance is required; forecasts call for exceptionally intense dangerous phenomena Amber: Be extremely vigilant; forecasts call for dangerous phenomena Yellow: Be careful; forecasts call for phenomena that are usual in the region but may be dangerous occasionally Green: No particular vigilance required Wp202 products can be used to identify the areas vulnerable to the natural hazards along the coastal zones of France and Bulgaria as well as for the calibration of the wave and stormsurge numerical models, which are the main part of the Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and the European map METEOLARM

27 Xynthia STORM France Issued to prevent/ avoid hazards altogether: METEOALRM gives an idea of the meteorological risk for the next 24 hours the information is communicated to authorities in order to alert the population or to prevent the population to be exposed to subsequent problems

28 Damages from severe storms (case France) Example of Xynthia storm ( ) Noteworthy storm surge : > 1.60m in La Rochelle and Les Sables d Olonnes 1.15m in Saint-Nazaire 1.05m in Le Crouesty Tide coefficient : 102 Analysis 28/02/ UTC P+12 28/02/ UTC P+24 29/02/ UTC ERA-Interim forecast ARPEGE forecast with ERA-Interim initial conditions Flood in La Faute-sur-mer on ARPEGE operational forecast

29 Damages from severe storms (case Bulgaria) Flood in Golden Sands resort on Damages to road infrastructure town of Varna on Irakly beach during the storm on

30 IncREO results A more comprehensive and better documented historical background on the coastal hazards (strong winds, high waves, storm surges, floods) from the past events leads to : better calibration of the wave, storm surge and floods forecasting models; better storm surge and wave forecast; (available to the END USERS from the IncREO website) improvement of the coastal hazard Early Warning System and meteorological vigilance map EUROPEAN METEOALARM

31 Building national resilience to extreme weather - the role of the national meteorological agencies NMHSs form a global network that shares weather and climate observations and forecasts that are vital for identifying and forecasting hazardous events. NIMHSs are the backbone of government efforts to build national climate resilience. We have to work in close collaboration with disaster management and health agencies, the media, and economic sectors. As the intensity and frequency of extreme weather increase as a result of climate change, we have to shift our focus to prevention and preparedness. Effective preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services urges Bulgaria to modernize NIMH so that we can strengthen our capacity to provide early warnings of extreme events.

32 Beyond the project regular reviewing of the warning system performance, receiving the user feedback, and identifying problems and actions needed for an improvement improvement the basic set of standard operating procedures between NIMH, end users, and communities at risk building institutional capacities for the application of warning information products in decision-making. INTERAGENCY INTERACTION is very important task to narrow gaps and to develop disaster risk management plans using a coordinated approach

33 References Funding: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ ) under grant agreement n Web page:

34 Contact The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences NIMH-BAS IncREO NIMH team leader: Assoc. Prof Anna Kortcheva, PhD Head of Marine Meteorology Division Member of JCOMM Expert Team on Waves and Coastal Hazards Forecasting Systems. Tel: (0)

35 Contact Coordinating entity: Astrium GEO-Information Services (SpotImage SA) Project coordinator: Dr Marc Mueller Project Manager GEO-Information Services Astrium Services 5 rue des Satellites, BP14359 F Toulouse Cedex 4, France Tel: +33 (0) marc.mueller@astrium.eads.net

36 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!