DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA. Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae
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1 DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae
2 LOCATION DETAILS AND BOUNDARIES ethekwini Municipal Area = 2297 km 2 Population : 3.7 million Length of Streams and Rivers : 4000 km 18 River Catchments and Estuaries 200 km of culverts and 50 km of canals 98 km of Coastline
3 DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM - GETTING AHEAD OF DISASTERS
4 BENEFITS OF GETTING AHEAD OF DISASTERS?
5 BENEFITS OF GETTING AHEAD OF DISASTERS?
6 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR DECISION MAKERS
7 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR MOST ENGINEERS AND DECISION MAKERS South Africa Weather Service has issued a high level flood warning! Reports indicate heavy rains in the catchment The Disaster Joint Forum is notified (?Severity?) The Police, Fire Brigade and Disaster Management Teams want to know were to deploy the limited resource?
8 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR DECISION MAKERS
9 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR MOST ENGINEERS AND DECISION MAKERS
10 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR MOST ENGINEERS AND DECISION MAKERS Informal settlements 100 Year floodline
11 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR MOST ENGINEERS AND DECISION MAKERS
12 TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR MOST ENGINEERS AND DECISION MAKERS
13 HOW BEST TO REACT WITH LIMITED RESOURCES?
14 HOW BEST TO REACT WITH LIMITED RESOURCES?
15 FUNDAMENTALS OF GETTING AHEAD? IT S ALL ABOUT THE DATA FLOW AND ANALYSIS THEREOF. A generic information platform for data processing Links to all kinds of observed and meteorological data sources, such as ground station monitoring devices, weather radar,. numerical weather models and satellite images. Facilities to process such data in required formats Links to a wide range of hydrological and hydraulic modelling systems. Easy to connect models and data sources, irrespective of their producers in order to avoid capital destruction of earlier investments by clients. Resilient system
16 TRIED AND TESTED METHODS DELFT FEWS
17 DELFT-FEWS AROUND THE WORLD Number of Delft-FEWS users is increasing each year
18 DELFT-FEWS THIS IS AFRICA Systems applied elsewhere often need some African Tweaking
19 import FUNDAMENTALS OF GETTING AHEAD? IT S ALL ABOUT THE DATA FLOW AND ANALYSIS THEREOF data (feeds) import validation interpolation general adapter export / report administration viewing (data, forecasts) archiving models export & dessimination
20 POSSIBLITIES AND STARTING POINT FLOOD MODELLING COASTAL WATER QUALITY, EROSION, SURGE PLUME DISPERSION AIR QUALITY
21 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 1: Collation of Current Data Rainfall data, GIS, field instrumentation Understand possibly shortcomings Budget vs objectives Phase 2: Hindcast Testing / Development hydraulic models (flooding) Running hindcast with field data Calibration and Validation of models Phase 3: Forecast / Realtime Testing build FEWS platform Run FEWS system with forecast data (GFS, ECMWF) Build data transfer protocols, systems etc Phase 4: Early Warning System Operations Identify hot spots Identify warning mechanism Run scenario testing (hind cast events)
22 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 1: Collation of Current Data what is available vs needed Rain gauges Weather stations Ocean instruments FIND THE GAP TO MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS
23 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 1: Collation of Current Data what is available vs needed Rain gauges
24 FEWS (ocean instruments)
25 FEWS (river stations)
26 FEWS (stormwater culverts)
27 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 2: Hindcast Testing / Development hydraulic models (flooding) - internal skills or outsourcing Running hindcast with field data - rain gauge inputs Calibration and Validation of models river observations Hydraulic Models (river, urban, 1D, 2D) River Stations Increase Observational Network REDUCE UNCERTAINTY
28 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 2: Hindcast Testing / Development hydraulic models (flooding) - internal skills or outsourcing Running hindcast with field data - rain gauge inputs Calibration and Validation of models river observations Hydraulic Models (river, urban, 1D, 2D) New River Stations Increase Observational Network REDUCE UNCERTAINTY
29 HYDRAULIC MODELS EXAMPLE Palmiet River
30 HYDRAULIC MODELS EXAMPLE Palmiet River
31 REAL TIME ANALYSIS
32 REAL TIME ANALYSIS
33 REAL TIME ANALYSIS?
34 FUNDAMENTALS OF GETTING AHEAD? IT S ALL ABOUT THE DATA FLOW AND ANALYSIS THEREOF Rain and river observations Radar rainfall Global rainfall forecasts Tide and ocean forecasts FEWS - Import - Process - Store - Prepare - Manage - Validate Models - Hydraulic - Coastal - Atmospheric Product generation Partner agencies Archiving Public
35 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 3: Forecast / Real-time Testing build FEWS platform Run FEWS system with forecast data (GFS, ECMWF, SAWS) NEED FORECAST DATA 1. Global Forecast Data (GFS)
36 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 3: Forecast / Real-time Testing build FEWS platform Run FEWS system with forecast data (GFS, ECMWF, SAWS) NEED FORECAST DATA 2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
37 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 3: Forecast / Real-time Testing build FEWS platform Run FEWS system with forecast data (GFS, ECMWF, SAWS) NEED FORECAST DATA 3. SAWS - South African Weather Service
38 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 3: Forecast / Real-time Testing build FEWS platform The reality of obtaining forecast data
39 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 3: Forecast / Real-time Testing build FEWS platform The reality of obtaining forecast data 1. GFS ~27km gridded, hourly data, 7 days 2. ECMWF ~50km gridded, hourly data, 7 days 3. SAWS? Near future 4. Other? NFCS
40 HOW TO FORECAST WITH ANALYSIS 4. Import Global Forecast System data
41 HOW TO FORECAST WITH ANALYSIS 4. Import Global Forecast System data
42 REAL TIME ANALYSIS?
43 HOW TO FORECAST WITH ANALYSIS
44 DEVELOPMENT OF A FEWS SYSTEM? Phase 4: Early Warning System Operations Identify hot spots Identify warning mechanism Run scenario testing (hind cast events)
45 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA SOMEONE HAS TO BE ALERTED, AND THEN DESCISIONS MADE
46 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA River water level checks
47 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA River water level checks
48 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA River water level checks FORECAST MEASURED
49 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA Rainfall intensity checks
50 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA Coastal Erosion and Surge Checks
51 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA Coastal Erosion and Surge Checks
52 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA Coastal Erosion and Surge Checks
53 ANALYSIS OF FORECAST DATA Coastal Erosion and Surge Checks Delft3D coupled FLOW and WAVE model in 3D model Trigger Xbeach model Every 6 hours, 72h lead time. Forced by NOAA GFS, including river discharges Riemann invariant Open Boundaries 21 km 58 km
54 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS 1.) Water samples collected for analysis as well as portable RBR 2.) Deploy (5) Acoustic Current Doppler Profilers (ACDP s)
55 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS Water samples collected for analysis as well as portable RBR
56 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS Tidal Gauge
57 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS Portable RBR & TCM s RBR Wave Ryder Buoy Tidal Gauge
58 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS Portable RBR & TCM s RBR Wave Ryder Buoy Radar Tidal Gauge
59 Coastal Water Quality Applications for FEWS
60 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Some interesting points and lessons learnt 1: A Pilot Study Is Underway EM will have a fully functional basic system Workshops how to get info out and assist other parties 2: Open Source Software Freely available software and forums 3: Any application is possible really Tailor the system to your desired objectives
61 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Some interesting points and lessons learnt 1: A Pilot Study Is Underway EM will have a fully functional system Flood Module (2017) Coastal and Atmospheric Modules (2018?) Workshops Operational and Setup (mid 2017)
62 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Some interesting points and lessons learnt 2: Open Source Software Freely available software, open data and forums no black boxes
63 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Some interesting points and lessons learnt 3: Any application is possible really Structural response monitoring Traffic management Treatment works City monitoring
64 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward - Reduce uncertainty - Improve confidence in EWS Install rainfall scanner radar Lidar topography acquired Skill up internally / nationally Identify support structure Reanalysis FC vs HC pytopkapi? Modflow?
65 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward - Need to automate as much as possible - use remote sensing
66 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa - Focussing on the major hydraulic parameters? % Imperviousness
67 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa - Focussing on the major hydraulic parameters?
68 Things are changing all the time 2011 Bringing research to operations 2015
69 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa IT S ALL ABOUT THE DATA FLOW AND ANALYSIS THEREOF Rain and river observations Radar rainfall Global rainfall forecasts Tide and ocean forecasts FEWS - Import - Process - Store - Prepare - Manage - Validate Models - Hydraulic - Coastal - Atmospheric Product generation Partner agencies Archiving Public
70 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward Getting the correct info to the correct people in the correct format and the correct time Rain and river observations Radar rainfall Global rainfall forecasts Tide and ocean forecasts FEWS - Import - Process - Store - Prepare - Manage - Validate Models - Hydraulic - Coastal - Atmospheric Product generation Information - Internet - Cloud - SMS / Twitter - Partner agencies Public Archiving
71 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward Getting the correct info to the correct people in the correct format and the correct time Information - Internet - Cloud - SMS / Twitter - Partner agencies Public
72 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward Getting the correct info to the correct people in the correct format and the correct time Information - Internet - Cloud - SMS / Twitter - Partner agencies Public
73 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Moving Forward Benefits of an Early Warning System Understand current status-quo Identify gaps to sorted out Skill up and build support structures Start mitigation on identified risk areas Wake up sleeping giants
74 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Need to establish Southern Africa Structure
75 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Need to establish Southern Africa Structure
76 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Need to establish Southern Africa Structure
77 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR South Africa Need to establish Southern Africa Structure
78 Current EM Setup and Aims
79 Current EM Setup and Aims Angus, Kwanda Mlondi, Natasha, Justin Clint
80 Current EM Setup and Aims
81 DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA
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