Ingo Meirold-Mautner Yong Wang Alexander Kann Benedikt Bica Georg Pistotnik
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1 INCA-CE: The challenge of severe weather warnings Ingo Meirold-Mautner Yong Wang Alexander Kann Benedikt Bica Georg Pistotnik INCA Central Europe Integrated nowcasting for the Central European area BALTRAD final seminar Tallinn, Estonia 7 December 2011
2 Severe weather effects:
3 Disaster types Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain-Brussels-Belgium"
4 Disaster groups Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain-Brussels-Belgium"
5
6 Objective of INCA-CE Nowcasting Road safety Winter maintenance RWIS Civil protection Storm warning Chemical hazards 1x1 km resolution 15 min update frequency Hydrology Flash floods Large scale flooding
7 The Central Europe Programme JTS, 8 EU countries 1 third country Surface: Around km² Population: Around 148 million citizens 7 (and more) languages 4 Programme Priorities: Innovation Accessibility Environment Competitiveness and attractiveness of cities and regions
8 Partnership 16 partners from 8 CE countries Weather services Research institutions National and local authorities Project budget: 3.3 M Project duration: Apr 2010 Sep
9 Partnership: Three fields of application Met Services Road Safety Civil Protection Hydrology ZAMG (AT) SHMU (SK) IMWM (PL) CHMI (CZ) HMS (HU) ARPA-FVG (IT) ARSO (SI) NÖL-RS (AT) CGS (SI) LSZ-B (AT) NÖL-CP (AT) BMI (AT) MINV (SK) DMDSC (HU) DCMP (PL) IOSB (DE) + stakeholders from these application areas + scientific advisory board: 7 specialists in above mentioned fields of intervention SHMU (SK) IMWM (PL) CHMI (CZ) IOSB (DE)
10 INCA-CE work packages I/O standardisation! Parallelisation! Road temperature! Wind gusts! Precipitation! WP1: Management WP4: INCA WP3: Strategy WP5: Pilots WP6: Evaluation WP2: Communication Current systems? Requirements? Application strategy? Road safety Hydrology Civil protection Implementation manual Training material User experience Extension beyond Central Europe
11 INCA: Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis ARPEGE ALADIN ECMWF Station observations (~300 stations) Topography (from 30 USGS DEM) INCA Satellite data (MSG cloud type ) Analyses Nowcasts (< 6h) Forecasts (> 6h) Radar data (max-cappi)
12 INCA details Austrian domain: Region: Eastern Alps Domain size: 600 x 350 km Elevation range: m Resolution: horizontal: 1 km, vertical: m, temporal: 5 min - 1 h 2-D Analyses und Forecasts Precipitation Precipitation type Cloudiness Global radiation 3-D Analyses und Forecasts Temperature Humidity Wind 2-D Convective Analyses Fields Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Convective Inhibition (CIN) Moisture flux convergence Other derived 2-D Fields Snowfall line Icing potential Wind chill
13 INCA precipitation analysis Interpolated station data Radar derived rain rate Calibrated radar rain rates INCA precipitation analysis
14 INCA nowcasting strategy Analysis background Nowcasting method NWP forecast Nowcasting limit Precipitation Cloudiness Temperature & Humidity Radar data Satellite data NWP forecast (ALADIN) Extrapolation with motion vectors ALADIN + ECMWF Extrapolation with motion vectors Persistence + modelled trend Wind NWP forecast (ALADIN) Persistence + modelled trend ALADIN ALADIN ALADIN 6 hours 6 hours 3 to 12 hours (depending on stability) 6 hours
15 From INCA to applications Nowcasting model Downstream models Hydrological model Warning centres Hydrology INCA Landslide model Road weather model Civil protection Road safety
16 Pilot implementations Hydrology Civil protection Road safety
17 Examples of pilot implementations Gust monitor for Lake Neusiedl Road weather for winter maintenance
18 Web portal to display INCA analyses & forecasts Central Europe composite!
19 Further information Further information: Publications: - Haiden, T., A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica and C. Gruber, 2011: The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region. Weather and Forecasting, 26/2, pp INCA system description:
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