WHITE PAPER BENEFITS OF USING EXPERT FX RISK MANAGEMENT RESOURCES PREPARED BY ANDRE CILLIERS DIRECTOR AND CURRENCY RISK STRATEGIST AT TREASURYONE
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- Rhoda Clementine Osborne
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1 WHITE PAPER BENEFITS OF USING EXPERT FX RISK MANAGEMENT RESOURCES EXCHANGE RATE RISK MANAGEMENT PREPARED BY ANDRE CILLIERS DIRECTOR AND CURRENCY RISK STRATEGIST AT TREASURYONE SEPTEMBER 2018
2 Introduction S o u t h A f r i c a s e x p o s u r e t o c o m m o d i t y p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t y i s w e l l k n o w n a n d i s a m p l i f i e d b y t h e m a n y p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c i s s u e s a f f l i c t i n g t h e g l o b a l e c o n o m y. F i r s t a n d f o r e m o s t w e h a v e s e e n t h e U S e c o n o m y r a t t l i n g a h e a d w h i c h h a s c a u s e d s o m e s p e c u l a t i o n w h e t h e r t h e F e d w i l l s t a r t h i k i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s s o o n e r t h a n t h e y h a v e i n d i c a t e d a l l a l o n g. T h i s h a s c a u s e d a r u s h t o U S m a r k e t s w h i c h h a s d r a i n e d t h e e x c e s s l i q u i d i t y f r o m E m e r g i n g M a r k e t s. T h e d r a i n i n g o f l i q u i d i t y c o u p l e d w i t h p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y h a s s p a r k e d a m i n i - c o l l a p s e i n m o s t E M m a r k e t s. T h e R a n d h a s n o t b e e n s p a r e d t h e r o t a n d h a s b e e n o n e o f t h e w o r s t p e r f o r m i n g c u r r e n c i e s i n t h e l a t e s t E M r o u t. L o c a l e c o n o m i c d a t a a n d p o l i t i c a l n o i s e h a s a l s o w e i g h e d o n t h e R a n d a n d h a s m a d e t h e c o u n t r y l e s s a t t r a c t i v e t o i n v e s t i n. I t l o o k s l i k e t h e n e x t i n t e r e s t r a t e m o v e m e n t i n S o u t h A f r i c a w i l l b e a h i k e i n o r d e r t o c u r b t h e i n f l a t i o n a r y p r e s s u r e t h a t t h e r e w i l l b e f o l l o w i n g t h e w e a k n e s s i n t h e R a n d. W i t h t h e U S l o o k i n g s t r o n g t h i s h a s p l a c e d m o r e p r e s s u r e o n c o m m o d i t i e s l i k e G o l d a s i n v e s t o r s a r e s e a r c h i n g f o r y i e l d i n t h e U S r a t h e r t h a n t h e s a f e t y o f G o l d, d u e t o G o l d n o n - i n t e r e s t b a r i n g q u a l i t y. I t w o u l d n o t b e a s t r e t c h t o s a y t h a t t h e U S i s c a l l i n g t h e s h o t s a t t h e m o m e n t a n d t h a t a p e r i o d o f v o l a t i l i t y i n E M w i l l b e t h e n e w n o r m Rand graph from 1 Jan to 12 Sep 2018 The Rand is one of the most volatile currencies in the world
3 The Global Backdrop S o u t h A f r i c a s e x p o s u r e t o c o m m o d i t y p r i c e u n c e r t a i n t y i s w e l l k n o w n a n d i s a m p l i f i e d b y t h e m a n y t r o u b l i n g i s s u e s a f f l i c t i n g t h e g l o b a l e c o n o m y. C u r r e n t l y, w e a r e s e e i n g t h a t p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s f r o m b o t h h o m e a n d a b r o a d i s h a v i n g a g r e a t e r i m p a c t o n c u r r e n c i e s t h a n e v e r. L o c a l l y, w e s a w t h e R a n d r e a c t i n g f a v o u r a b l y t o t h e e l e c t i o n o f C y r i l R a m a p h o s a t o t h e P r e s i d e n t o f t h e A N C, b u t w i l l t h e r e b e e n o u g h p o l i c y c h a n g e s a n d a c t i o n t o j u s t i f y f u r t h e r R a n d c o n s o l i d a t i o n a n d i n t h e l o n g r u n s u s t a i n e d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h. I n t h e U S w e a r e s t i l l f a c e d w i t h P r e s i d e n t T r u m p a n d t h e p o t e n t i a l d e c i s i o n s h e m a k e s a n d t h e r a m i f i c a t i o n s t h e r e o f, a s w e l l a s t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e h i k i n g s t r a t e g y o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e. W e s t i l l d o n t k n o w t h e f u l l e f f e c t s o f B r e x i t, a n d t h i s s t i l l h a s t h e p o t e n t i a l t o t h r o w s o m e c u r v e b a l l s i n t h e y e a r. C l e a r l y, e x c h a n g e r i s k m a n a g e m e n t w i l l b e a s u s t a i n e d p r i o r i t y f o r S o u t h A f r i c a n C F O s a n d t r e a s u r e r s. The Value of Using Expert Strategic Advisory Services M a n y c o m p a n i e s c a n r a d i c a l l y i m p r o v e t h e i r e x c h a n g e r i s k p r o f i l e b y w o r k i n g w i t h e x p e r t t h i r d p a r t i e s t o a d d e x t e r n a l s t r a t e g y d e s i g n a n d h e d g e p r o g r a m e x e c u t i o n s e r v i c e s a s o u t s o u r c e d c o m p l e m e n t s t o t h e i r f i n a n c e o p e r a t i o n s. T h e s e l e c t i o n o f a s t r a t e g i c p a r t n e r e n a b l e s t h e c o m p a n y o r c o r p o r a t e c l i e n t t o w o r k w i t h a n o r g a n i s a t i o n w i t h a p r o v e n t r a c k r e c o r d i n t h e i r s p e c i f i c c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r, b e i t m i n i n g, a g r i c u l t u r e, r e t a i l, m a n u f a c t u r i n g o r i m p o r t / e x p o r t. T h e p a r t n e r w i l l w o r k w i t h f i n a n c e m a n a g e m e n t t o d e s i g n a n F X h e d g i n g p r o g r a m t h a t m o s t c l o s e l y f i t s t h e b u s i n e s s a n d t h e o u t l o o k o v e r t i m e f o r t h e r e l e v a n t m a r k e t s, a n d w h i c h i s c o m p l i a n t w i t h r e g u l a t o r y a n d l e g a l r e q u i r e m e n t s. T h e p r o g r a m w i l l b e t a i l o r e d t o f i t t h e c o m p a n y s p a r t i c u l a r b u s i n e s s p a t t e r n s a n d o u t l o o k a n d f i n a n c e p o l i c y, t o p r o t e c t f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y p r o f i t s a n d e a r n i n g s o v e r t i m e. T h e p a r t n e r w i l l r e c o m m e n d i n s t r u m e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s a n d e x e c u t i o n t i m i n g o b j e c t i v e s t o o p t i m i s e r e s u l t s. T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e c l i e n t a n d t h e t r e a s u r y s e r v i c e s c o m p a n y w i l l o f n e c e s s i t y b e c l o s e s o t h a t s o l u t i o n s a r e o r i g i n a t e d w h i c h c l o s e l y c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e a c t u a l r i s k s a n d t h e i r r e s o l u t i o n p r i o r i t i e s. T h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r s e l e c t i n g a h e d g i n g p r o g r a m u l t i m a t e l y r e s i d e s w i t h t h e c l i e n t c o m p a n y b u t t h e i r d e c i s i o n i s u n d e r p i n n e d b y t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e o u t s o u r c i n g p a r t n e r s e x p e r i e n c e, a n a l y s i s, a n d a d v i c e. T h e c l i e n t c o m p a n y c a n c o n f r o n t t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s o f f u t u r e v o l a t i l i t y w i t h j u s t i f i a b l y e n h a n c e d c o n f i d e n c e.
4 The Value of Using Expert Market Execution Services A c o m p e l l i n g r e a s o n f o r a c o r p o r a t e t o w o r k w i t h a n e x p e r t t h i r d p a r t y f o r F X m a r k e t h e d g e p r o g r a m e x e c u t i o n i s t h e v o l a t i l i t y, u n c e r t a i n t y, a n d c o m p l e x i t y o f t h i s m a r k e t. T h e n e c e s s a r y e x p e r t i s e i s e x p e n s i v e, a n d i n s h o r t s u p p l y, s o i t i s o f t e n m o s t e f f i c i e n t t o w o r k w i t h a t r u s t e d p a r t n e r t o c o m p l e m e n t t h e i n - h o u s e f i n a n c e t e a m. T h e F X m a r k e t i t s e l f i s s u b j e c t t o t h e c o n f l i c t i n g p u l l s a n d p u s h e s o f t e c h n i c a l, f u n d a m e n t a l a n d p s y c h o l o g i c a l f o r c e s. T e c h n i c a l f o r c e s a r e s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d f a c t o r s w h i c h a r e d r i v e n b y m o n e t a r y e v e n t s, p o l i c y s h i f t s, a n d s i g n i f i c a n t m a r k e t m o v e m e n t s. F u n d a m e n t a l f a c t o r s a r e t h e u n d e r l y i n g e c o n o m i c r e a l i t i e s i m p a c t i n g a c u r r e n c y, s u c h a s i n f l a t i o n a r y i n d i c e s, G D P p e r f o r m a n c e a n d r e l a t e d f a c t o r s s u c h a s i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n a n d e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s. P s y c h o l o g y c o m e s i n t o p l a y w h e n u n e x p e c t e d e v e n t s s u c h a s B r e x i t, t h e f i r i n g o f a F i n a n c e M i n i s t e r, o r t h e e l e c t i o n o f a n u n e x p e c t e d c a n d i d a t e p r e s i d e n t c o m e i n t o p l a y a n d w h e n p s y c h o l o g y i s d o m i n a n t, v o l a t i l i t y i n c r e a s e s a n d m a r k e t d i r e c t i o n m a y b e t h e o p p o s i t e o f w h a t c o m m o n s e n s e m i g h t s u g g e s t. T h r o u g h a l l o f t h i s, c o r p o r a t e s m u s t s o m e h o w p l a n a n d t i m e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n s t o a c h i e v e s u p e r i o r p r i c i n g o v e r a s u s t a i n e d p e r i o d i f t h e y a r e t o s e c u r e a c o m p e t i t i v e a d v a n t a g e i n h e d g i n g e f f i c i e n c y, a n d h e n c e f o r e i g n r e v e n u e a n d a s s e t v a l u e p r o t e c t i o n. D e a l e r s m u s t b o t h i n s t a n t l y u n d e r s t a n d t h e c u r r e n t i m p a c t o f c h a n g e s a n d m u s t a n t i c i p a t e h o w t h i n g s a r e m o s t l i k e l y t o p l a y o u t. A f u r t h e r s t r o n g r e a s o n f o r w o r k i n g w i t h a p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e p r o v i d e r i s t h e c o s t f a c t o r. T h e e c o n o m i e s o f s c a l e w h i c h a r e a v a i l a b l e w i l l o f t e n o u t p e r f o r m t h e s t a f f a n d o v e r h e a d e x p e n s e s o f s e t t i n g u p a n d o p e r a t i n g a n e f f e c t i v e i n - h o u s e d e a l i n g t e a m. T h e s u p p l y o f t o p - c l a s s d e a l e r s i s l i m i t e d, s o i t i s o f t e n b e t t e r t o l i c e n s e t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e e x e c u t i o n s e r v i c e s w h e n n e e d e d, t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f t h e r i g h t o u t s o u r c i n g p a r t n e r. T h e c o s t / b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s w i l l n a t u r a l l y v a r y f r o m c o m p a n y t o c o m p a n y b u t e v e n t h e l a r g e s t m u l t i n a t i o n a l s c a n f i n d t h a t t h o u g h t f u l a n d i n f o r m e d u s e o f e x p e r t, o b j e c t i v e l y p r o v e n t h i r d p a r t i e s p r o v i d e t h e b e s t o p t i o n f o r m a n a g i n g m a r k e t o p e r a t i o n s. "Team of 50 treasury specialists at your service" Team TreasuryONE
5 Conclusion I n s e v e r a l w a y s, t h e g l o b a l e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l o u t l o o k i s u n i q u e l y c h a l l e n g i n g t o d a y, w i t h a n e w n o r m a l i t y o f v o l a t i l i t y a n d u n c e r t a i n t y. W o r k i n g w i t h a c o m p l i m e n t a r y e x p e r t t h i r d p a r t y p r o v i d e s a m e a n s o f e l i m i n a t i n g m a n y o f t h e k e y r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x c h a n g e e x p o s u r e s, l e a d i n g t o e n h a n c e d f i n a n c e m a n a g e m e n t t h o u g h d e m o n s t r a b l y m o r e d e p e n d a b l e r e v e n u e f o r e c a s t i n g, a n d a c t u a l p e r f o r m a n c e. A n d r e C l l i e r s D i r e c t o r a n d C u r r e n c y R i s k S t r a t e g i s t a t T r e a s u r y O N E : A n d r e s c a r e e r i n t r e a s u r y s t a r t e d i n H e h a s e x t e n s i v e t r e a s u r y e x p e r i e n c e i n b o t h t h e b a n k i n g a n d c o r p o r a t e a r e n a s. F o r t h e l a s t 1 5 y e a r s o f h i s b a n k i n g c a r e e r, A n d r e h e a d e d u p T r e a s u r y f o r a G e r m a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l b a n k i n S o u t h A f r i c a. H e j o i n e d T r e a s u r y O N E i n A n d r e s t u d i e d a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f P r e t o r i a a n d h a s a t t e n d e d t r e a s u r y c o u r s e s b o t h l o c a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y i n c l u d i n g t h e O C o n n e l l & P i p e r o p t i o n s a n d d e r i v a t i v e s c o u r s e i n C h i c a g o a n d i s a r e g u l a r g u e s t o n T V a n d r a d i o. "Adding external strategy design and hedge program execution services as outsourced complements to your finance operations is a good risk strategy" Andre Cilliers W W W. T R E A S U R Y O N E. C O. Z A T R E A S U R Y O N E I S A N A U T H O R I S E D F S P
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