Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482)

Transcription

1 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC Myanmar Water Global Practice IBRD/IDA Investment Project Financing FY 2015 Seq No: 8 ARCHIVED on 19-Dec-2018 ISR35167 Implementing Agencies: Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministy of Transport Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 09-Dec-2014 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 01-Mar-2018 Original Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 pdotable Project Development Objectives Effectiveness Date: 10-Jun-2015 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 19-Mar-2018 Revised Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river, and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said Eligible Crisis or Emergency. Components Table Name Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building:(Cost $30.50 M) Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization:(Cost $28.80 M) Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River:(Cost $36.10 M) Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response:(Cost $4.60 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating High High 12/19/2018 Page 1 of 7

2 Implementation Status and Key Decisions The last implementation support mission for the AIRBM Project (US$100 million) found exemplary turnaround in lagging parts of the project, increase in disbursements, key staff positions filled and clear line of sight to project close through improved project management. Despite strong progress and doubling the disbursement rate since Mid-Term Review, the volume of procurement and contract management is demanding and will stretch existing capacity across all components, and a few activities are at risk of non-completion by project close. The first half of 2019 is crucial for the Project to demonstrate that measures taken across all components materialize in accelerated procurement and implementation of the remaining items from the Results-Based Action Plan before project close. Component 1. Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems and Capacity Building: Component 1 made progress on (i) the first phase of the development of a River Basin Master Plan with the acceptance of the Inception Report and draft Detailed Design for the DSS; and (ii) under the Preparation of Future Investments sub-component the PMU has progressed well to finalize the Concept Note for the Yangon IWRM project as well as securing co-financing from The Netherlands. Component 2. Hydro-Meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization: Component 2 has increased its performance most since last ISR although it is still lagging in terms of contracting. The management team shows strong leadership in developing a longer term vision for DMH and donor coordination. Component 2 has also made very significant progress with the completion of a detailed and prioritized procurement plan that serves as a roadmap for digital and organizational transformations, ultimately leading to modernization of DMH s hydro-met system. At the same time, Component 2 is assessing socioeconomic benefits (SEB) of hydromet information, in collaboration with stakeholders. Component 3. Navigation Enhancement in the Ayeyarwady River: Component 3 has progressed well by implementing the first batch of Aids-to- Navigation (AtN). Installation of AtN for the remaining part of Stretch 1 is scheduled for this dry season as is the preparation of the detailed design for the remaining river sections to Yangon. Component 3 made significant progress with the completion of bank protection works for Sub-project 1 and the Works contract for installation of porcupines* is planned to be signed before the end of the year. With the completion of all river works, DWIR can pilot a more strategic and proactive approach to river management. *) Porcupines refer to roughness inducing objects in the form of concrete piles than have been tied together and placed in the river bed to enhance sedimentation and stabilize the river. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- High High Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- High High Stakeholders -- High High Other Overall -- High High Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes 12/19/2018 Page 2 of 7

3 IN IN IN IN IN To contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River Component 1: River Basin Master Plan (Yes/No, Custom) Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec May Nov Mar-2020 Large consultancy mobilized in April 2018 and Inception Report tabled May 15, A draft detailed design for the decision support system was submitted in August Indicator to be clarified in level 2 restructuring, as per MTR. Component 1: Preparation of Feasibility Studies (Number, Custom) Value Date 09-Dec May Nov Mar-2020 Two investments packages defined; the concept note for Yangon IWRM was prepared and partnership with the Dutch Government confirmed and formalized. RFP for first consultancy has been issued; Procurement for preparation for ESIA, technical design and feasibility study for Stretch 1 dynamic river engineering project is in final stage (Bid evaluation reports under review by World Bank). Indicator to be clarified in level 2 restructuring, as per MTR. Component 2: Hydro-Met Products (Number, Custom) Value Modernization plan completed; REOI finalized for Impact-based Flood Forecasting and Agricultural Climate Advisory Services in draft. Indicator to be clarified in level 2 restructuring, as per MTR. Component 2: Hydro-Met Stations Functioning per SOP (Percentage, Custom) Value Although 100 UNOPs stations have been installed, SOPs are not yet implemented. Indicator to be clarified in level 2 restructuring, as per MTR. Component 3: Navigation Improvements (Percentage, Custom) Value /19/2018 Page 3 of 7

4 IN IN IN The first lot of buoys for Aids to Navigation (AtN) are installed and operational. The second lot have been delivered and installation is scheduled for the upcoming dry season. MTR identified need to clarify the indicator and metric (level 2 restructuring pending). CERC - To provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency Overall Comments PDO The MTR concluded that the original PDO remains valid and there is no need for modification. However, a formal level 2 project restructuring will recommend changes in indicators in order to: (i) Clarify indicator metrics; (ii) Redefine outputs based on changes in technical approaches; (iii) Adapt to lessons learned; and (iv) Meet project schedule. Restructuring was also advised to accommodate the budget loss due to the exchange rate fluctuation between the XDR and the USD. The total budget loss amounts to USD 6.1 million and may increase further if exchange rates show an increased devaluation of the XDR. Work programs are being implemented for all indicators; however, the MTR revealed many outcomes will be delivered within 3 months of scheduled close Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building Component 1: Decision Support System (Yes/No, Custom) Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec May Nov Mar-2020 International consultancy contracted and mobilized; inception report finalized and detailed design under review. Independent scenario scoping study finalized. Component 1: River Basin Master Plan - Phase 1 Report (Yes/No, Custom) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec Nov Nov Dec-2017 Capacity building and gender (Number, Custom) Value /19/2018 Page 4 of 7

5 IN IN IN IN IN Date 09-Dec Nov Nov Mar-2020 An increase to 50% female participation (from 40%) will be assessed during level 2 restructuring, given current strong performance and additional focus on increasing women's participation by all components Capacity building - percentage of participants female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Value Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization Component 2: Hydromet Stations Upgraded (Percentage, Custom) Value stations under UNOPS have been constructed. An additional 106 planned from AIRBM. Definitions and numbers to be finalized in Level 2 restructuring Component 2: Hydromet System Design (Yes/No, Custom) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec Apr Apr Dec-2017 Draft design presented in January 2018 and finalized by April Component 2: Hydromet System Financial Sustainability (Percentage, Custom) Value Date 09-Dec May Nov Mar-2020 Indicator needs clarification to take into account lessons learned in other World Bank projects (level 2 restructuring pending). Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River Component 3: Navigation Detailed Design (Yes/No, Custom) Value No No No Yes 12/19/2018 Page 5 of 7

6 IN IN Date 09-Dec Apr Nov Dec-2017 Proposals for Engineering Design for River Enhancement works and for ESIA and ESMP for River enhancement works in Stretch 1 are currently being evaluated. Mobilization of both contracts are delayed to January Component 3: River works construction (Percentage, Custom) Value River bank protection works under Sub-project 1 have been successfully completed. Contract for production & installation of porcupines is under negotiation and works shall start soon. Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP (Yes/No, Custom) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 14-Jun Nov Nov Jun-2017 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P IDA Effective USD % Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P IDA Effective 09-Dec Apr Jun Sep Sep-2020 Cumulative Disbursements 12/19/2018 Page 6 of 7

7 Restructuring History Level 1 Approved on 19-Jun-2016 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/19/2018 Page 7 of 7