e-science on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Taiwan

Transcription

1 e-science on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Taiwan Eric Yen EGI User Forum, April 2011

2 ~50 earthquakes/day Taiwan Seismicity on Google Earth km Eurasia Plate S01R Philippine Sea Plate ~ 80 mm/yr

3 Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Objectives Exploring the Earth deep interior by seismology Minimize impact by early warning and good preparation Support seismology study and regional collaborations Major Factors Influencing Ground Motions Amplification by soft near-surface material Focusing of energy by material boundaries Earthquake source rupture directivity Prerequisite of Reliable Ground Motion Prediction Earth structure model Reliable model of the source Computational resources 3

4 Pathways of Seismology Study source Observation Earth instrument instrument response Modeling

5 Paradigm of Seismology Problems Observation Deploy instruments to collect waveform records Waveforms carry information about the sources of earthquake and the structure along the paths between source and station Prediction Calculate waveforms for models of source and structure Issue: efficiency and accuracy Model Update Inversion Solve the inverse problem Measurement Compare predicted and recorded waveforms Differences (residuals, anomalies) serve as data to refine source and structure models. Set Up Inverse Problem Relate data and model perturbations Issue: (1) linear relation (2) both source and structure models

6 e-science for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Collaborators: PH, VN, TW, ID, MY, TH Seismic Sensor Networks Local Sensor & Observation Data High Resolution Source & Global/Regional Sensor Data Rupture Process Analysis Fast Reporting System Archive Ref. Historical Events Data Archive Earthquake Data Center (SeisGrid) Forward Simulation & Event Construction on Grid Risk Analysis & Reduction

7 Seismogram Simulation Services 1. Location and Tomography Model Selction 2. Epicenter Data Preparation 4. Seismogram Access & Visualization 3. Choose Position for Seismogram

8 Current Focus Hazard Mapping Achieving full process of quantitative seismic hazard assessment Collecting and analyzing event data Understanding fault characteristics in details Facilitating accurate simulation on seismic waves Assessing anticipated earthquake and potential damages by the correct seismic and engineering models Maps of disaster coverage, risk and also evacuation are pragmatic to better preparedness 7168 grid points for Taiwan SGT DB is done. 25,088 CPU Hrs in 45 days on 80x 8-core nodes, and 100TB output created Near-surface velocity Shake map could be generated in < 20 min

9 Finite-Difference Simulation Parameters (1) Spatial grid size h: > 5 points per wavelength λ = v T speed 1 h < v min Tmin 5 For v min = 1 km/s, Tmin = 3 s, h = 600 m. (W e use h = 400 m). (2) Time step Δt: Δt < period 1 h 2 vmax For v max = 10 km/s, h = 400 m, Δ t < Modeling range: 250 km 400 km 80 km 90 s Total # of spatial-temporal grids: CPU time and storage: 3 hours on 32 processes, 15 GB From Y.-C. Chan

10 Shake Movie CWB Strong Motion Observation Click to show movie

11 Distribute the 7168 Green s functions (15GB each): up to 7168 sites. Distribute Green s function retrieval (21KB each): up to 7168 volunteers desktops/laptops. Greater distribution enables consideration of more detailed features (higher frequency/resolution). All waveforms and shake movies can be available within minutes after earthquake alert.

12 Current sensor are 14 bit and will be integrating 16 bit and 24 bit soon Low-cost MEMS and distributed sensing techniques can provide valuable acceleration data for real-time event detection and characterization Creating educational activities to complement the network activities

13 Aftershock Education & Training Easy-deployed sensor networks for velocity structure in certain areas in SEA Regional Server in Taiwan will be established soon

14 e-science for Combined Disasters Earthquake Exploring earth deep interior (sensor networking, source rupture analysis) Disaster mitigation Seismic wave propagation analysis Early warning Event data preservation Tsunami Tsunami propagation and flood simulation Breaking-wave simulation Early warning Event data preservation Air Pollution Social Resilience Air pollutant propagation and quality analysis Weather simulation Agent modeling and risk assessment Adaptation or recovery process modeling 14

15 The Japan- Taiwan geodynamic system is very similar to the Indonesian- Tibet one. Hsu and Sibuet, 2005

16 Numerical Simulation for Tsunami Hazards (Liu et al., 2007) 16

17 Fukushima radioactive plume dispersion 17

18 e- Science for the Masses Not only porting scientific applications for e-science collaboration, but also establishing research oriented production services and long term scientific collaboration among partners close work with user communities. Unique scientific values of e-science application data, e.g. Quantification of earthquake source characteristics, SGT, geological structure, and wave propagation model, etc. Primary common concerns are Disaster Mitigation, and sustainable development address the challenge of regional cooperation Take advantage of sharing and collaboration to better protect our lives, bridge the gap between Asia and the world, an opportunity to leapfrog However, one must reduce the entry barriers for e-science in Asia In Asia, e-science for the masses is more strategic than the big science!

19 Acknowledgement Li Zhao, Institute of Earth Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Wen-Tzong Liang, Institute of Earth Science, Academia Sinica Tsuo-Zen Wu, National Central University, Taiwan Elizabeht Cochran, UC Riverside Chuan-Yao Lin, Research Center of Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica 19