Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

Transcription

1 Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Welcome to the webinar: CONNECTING ALASKA LANDSCAPES INTO THE FUTURE December 8, AM (ADT) By Nancy Fresco, Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning and Karen Murphy, US Fish and Wildlife Service This webinar will be recorded for internal documentation. For more information, please contact ACCAP:

2 CONNECTING ALASKA LANDSCAPES INTO THE FUTURE ACCAP Presentation on Preliminary Results December 2009 Karen Murphy & John Morton FWS Falk Huettmann EWHALE - UAF Nancy Fresco SNAP - UAF 1

3 Agencies: ADF&G BLM NPS FWS USGS USFS Acknowledgements NGO s & Universities Defenders of Wildlife The Nature Conservancy The Wilderness Society Alaska Natural Heritage Program Alaska GAP Alaska Audubon USFWS Region 7, National Wildlife Refuges, Fisheries & Ecological Services, Migratory Birds and State Programs and Subsistence all contributed to funding this project in FY08 and FY09 2

4 FWS Partners Workshop III participants: FWS (Refuges, Mig Birds, ES), BLM, NPS, USGS, ADF&G, USFS, TNC, Wilderness Society, UA (SNAP&EWHALE), Alaska GAP, Defenders of Wildlife 3

5 Our Goals Identify lands and waters in Alaska that likely serve as landscape-level migration corridors currently and into the future given climate change; and Identify conservation strategies with our partners that will help maintain landscape-level connectivity by focusing conservation efforts, minimizing redundant research and monitoring efforts, and by sharing data and information for these areas. 4

6 Landscape connectivity metrics Land status and infrastructure Corridors and landscape matrices Buffers 5

7 Modeling Subjects Biomes Vegetation Communities Caribou Alaska marmot Trumpeter swans Reed canary grass 6

8 SNAP Climate Inputs Climate projections based 5 bestperforming IPCC global models Downscaled to 2 km resolution Selected 5-model composite averaged by decade, A1B (mid-range) emissions scenario Used precipitation and temperature for June and December as inputs More info available at

9 Climate change forecasted from SNAP data using RandomForest TM at 5km grid Precipitation Mean decadal Starting: Future: MISSING! Sea level rise & Permafrost change + = Temperature Classification and regression trees Inputs: June precip, Dec. precip, June temp., Dec. temp Multiple interactions 8

10 Alaska Biomes Derived from Unified Ecoregions Nowacki et al 2001 Aleutians Western Tundra Arctic Boreal Boreal Transition Used for Training Data North Pacific Maritime 9

11 Western Canadian Ecozones included as training data 10

12 Predicted biome/climate Western Tundra Arctic AK Boreal Boreal Transition N. Pacific Maritime Aleutian Islands 11

13 Predicted biome/climate

14 Predicted biome/climate

15 Predicted biome/climate

16 YK Delta NWR Western Tundra Aleutian Islands Arctic AK Boreal Boreal Transition N. Pacific Maritime YK Delta NWR 15

17 YK Delta NWR: Western Tundra Transition Boreal

18 YK Delta NWR: Boreal Transition Aleutian Island Tundra Western

19 YK Delta NWR: Boreal Transition Montane Cordillera Islands Aleutian

20 Resiliency Red = 3 changes Orange = 2 changes Light Green = 1 change Dark Green = No Changes (refugia) 19

21 Assessing Connectivity Stepping stones or linkages through time and space 20

22 Modeling Approach Use MARXAN to optimize for each 40km pixel: Very high or very low NDVI (10% deciles) Covers 10% or 25% of AK High resilience (upper 50%) Biome refugia for Selected penalty factors (weighting of above criteria) Ran Marxan for each biome separately The best Marxan solutions are overlaid for each biome Note that Marxan cannot always find a solution that meets all criteria; the final solution represents a compromise between criteria 21

23 Western Boreal Interior Tundra Year1_ Year1_12 Year1 Year_

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25 Example Solution Legend for Connectivity No connectivity: 1 Path: 2 Paths: 3 or more:

26 Recommendation: focus on better modeling, delineation, and monitoring of both refugia and regions of extreme change And explore opportunities to develop anticipatory adaptation associated with predicted species responses in parts of Alaska 25

27 We can also add species distributions and populations to the analysis Each species needs to be modeled for its life history constraints (ability to migrate, temperature tolerance) At a minimum, we need good species occurrence data something that is often lacking Use to assess vulnerability and evaluate population objectives 26

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30 Modeling Trumpeter Swan Occurrence: Future Predictions based on Ice Free Days SNAP data and Connectivity 29

31 Trumpeter Swan Data (2005 Trumpeter Swan Survey, a census flown every 5 years in August) Provided by Debbie Groves via Bob Platte Tundra Swan data are not available, yet 30

32 Potential Trumpeter Swan distributions based on climate envelopes

33 Potential Trumpeter Swan distributions based on climate envelopes

34 Potential Trumpeter Swan distributions based on climate envelopes

35 Potential Trumpeter Swan distributions based on climate envelopes

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37 2099 with nonforest + ice-free masks 36

38 Modeling Canary Reed Grass: Future Predictions of an Invasive Species (based on Road Proximity and SNAP climatologies and Connectivity) 37

39 Reed Canary Grass potential distribution GREEN = none YELLOW = low RED = high roads + known occurrences

40 GREEN = none YELLOW = low RED = high Reed Canary Grass potential distribution

41 Reed Canary Grass potential distribution GREEN = none YELLOW = low RED = high

42 Reed Canary Grass potential distribution GREEN = none YELLOW = low RED = high

43 Reed Canary Grass potential distribution roads + known occurrences GREEN = none YELLOW = low RED = high

44 Alaska Marmot Photo: AKNHP website

45 Known Known occurrences occurrences of Alaska of AK Marmots Marmot

46 Known occurrences and predicted Alpine

47 A new layer: DEM roughness

48 AK Marmot distribution using climate and roughness 2009

49 AK Marmot distribution using climate and roughness 2039

50 AK Marmot distribution using climate and roughness 2069

51 AK Marmot distribution using climate and roughness 2099

52 How can we forecast climate and caribou distribution? 51

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54 2009 composite distribution

55 2009 modeled distribution

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57 Predicted climate-suitable habitat Based on subsample of herds with defined Summer and Winter ranges. Winter predictions = purple, Summer prediction = green Based on the combined herd distributions for all 33 herds. Seasonality not included.

58 Lessons from species modeling Creation of climatic niche is possible to suggest trends but must be done thoughtfully and acknowledge limitation Even simple models of distribution shifts require more data than we have readily available Classic connectivity models are scale- and species-dependent Invasive plant spread likely to accelerate 57

59 Next Steps and Conservation Strategies 58