Applied Climate Change Science Supporting National Park Management in the US Northern Rockies and Appalachians

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1 National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Name of Office Applied Climate Change Science Supporting National Park Management in the US Northern Rockies and Appalachians Bill Monahan NPS Inventory & Monitoring April 2015 George Wright Society Oakland, CA

2 NASA-NPS Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project Clingman s Dome, Great Smoky Mountain NP NASA Applied Sciences Program (NNH10ZDA001N - BIOCLIM) Montana State University: Andy Hansen, Nate Piekielek, Tony Chang, Linda Phillips Woods Hole Research Center: Scott Goetz, Patrick Jantz, Tina Cormier, Scott Zolkos NPS I&M Program: Bill Monhan and John Gross NPS / Great Northern LCC: Tom Olliff CSU Monterey Bay / NASA Ames: Forrest Melton, Weile Wang Conservation Science Partners: Dave Theobald NPS I&M Program

3 NASA-NPS Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project Clingman s Dome, Great Smoky Mountain NP NASA Applied Sciences Program (NNH10ZDA001N - BIOCLIM) Montana State University: Andy Hansen, Nate Piekielek, Tony Chang, Linda Phillips Woods Hole Research Center: Scott Goetz, Patrick Jantz, Tina Cormier, Scott Zolkos NPS I&M Program: Bill Monhan and John Gross NPS / Great Northern LCC: Tom Olliff CSU Monterey Bay / NASA Ames: Forrest Melton, Weile Wang Conservation Science Partners: Dave Theobald NPS I&M Program

4 Goals & Objectives Demonstrate the four steps of a climate adaptation planning strategy in two LCCs using NASA and other data and models Glick et al Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.

5 Study Areas

6 Outline 1900 > Present > 2100 Climate change Ecosystem processes Vegetation response Decision Support Products Greater Yellowstone Area

7 Vulnerability Climate and land use change Exposure Sensitivity Ecosystem and tree species climate tolerances Projected response Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Dispersal capability Vulnerability Priority for management Glick et al. (2011)

8 Extreme Temperature Pushing the envelope: 81% of parks (235/289) already extreme warm Most recent years warmer than 95% of historical conditions going back to 1901 Extreme for any one of 7 temperature variables Monahan & Fisichelli (2014)

9 Climate Change Great Northern Gross et al. (in prep)

10 Climate Change Appalachian Delaware Water Gap NRA Shenandoah NP Great Smoky Mountains NP Guay et al. (in prep)

11 Extreme Precipitation 78 parks (27%) extreme wet 43 parks (15%) extreme dry 2 parks (<1%) both extreme wet and dry 166 parks (57%) no extreme Extreme for any one of 7 precipitation variables Monahan & Fisichelli (2014)

12 Projected Ecosystem Processes WRCP CMIP5 Scenarios US NED Elev STATSGO soils Convert to MODIS MCDQ1 land cover classes TOPS BIOME- BGC MODIS land cover, snow cover, NDVI, LAI/FPAR & NOAA NCDC met data NASA Ames SERGoM land use change model Simulations: Snow Pack Soil Moisture Watershed outflow Primary Productivity

13 Projected Ecosystem Processes

14 Vegetation Response Line. Line. Line. Line. Late 21 st Century business as usual emissions Reanalysis of data from Rehfeldt et al. 2012

15 Vegetation Response Climate: (RCP 4.5 W/m 2 ) Insect & Disease: Monahan et al. 2013

16 Vegetation Response Balsam fir Sugar maple Zolkos et al. 2014

17 Decision Support Products Resource briefs NPS Standard Operating Procedures Serve key data sets and modeling tools Policy Documents Convene expert panel for vulnerability assessment Book (Climate change in wildlands) Agency and peer-reviewed journal publications Methods and products are handed off to NPS I&M and the North Central CSC

18 Resource Briefs

19 Informing Decision Making

20 For More Information Bill Monahan NASA-NPS Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project NASA Applied Sciences program: 10-BIOCLIM Glacier Gorge NPS photo