Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability

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1 Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability Climate Information Program: David Jones (Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction) & Leading in Climate Data, Monitoring, Prediction and Advice Perry Wiles (Manager of Climate Liaison) Bureau of Meteorology &

2 Overview Scientific context (IPCC AR5) The recent observational context Technological opportunities (the push), service gaps and needs (the pull) Priorities and opportunities for partnerships

3 Key findings of the IPCC WG I Fifth Assessment Report Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

4 The IPCC and the 5 th Assessment Report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, consisting of ~195 governments under the auspices of the UN Three Working Groups I: The Physical Science Basis II: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation III: Mitigation IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri Each working group has two co-chairs, one from a developed and one from a developing country Thomas Stocker and Qin Dahe Working Group I co-chairs photos from iisd.org

5 IPCC and the 5 th Assessment Report Scientists contribute voluntarily and are selected by their countries and the IPCC to be authors, based on their expertise and considerations such as geographic balance WGI AR5 has 259 authors from 39 countries Australia has a significant number of contributors Scott Power, Julie Arblaster, Nathan Bindhoff, Neville Smith, Lisa Alexander. photo from iisd.org Lisa Alexander and Scott Power authors

6 New Findings Warming is unequivocal and many observed changes are unprecedented on timescales of decades or millennia Increased certainty of a human influence on climate Improved models and increased understanding of many components of the climate system New emission scenarios and projections of climate change beyond 2100 to 2300 Slightly revised estimates of climate sensitivity Sea level rise projections include ice-sheet dynamical changes Estimates of the total allowable global emissions in order to limit temperature rise to 2 C

7 Global Mean Surface Temperatures Increased by 0.89ºC Between 1901 and 2012 Globally averaged surface temperatures

8 Each of the last Three Decades has been Warmer than any Previous Decade since 1850 Globally averaged surface temperatures

9 A Global view of Global Warming Global heat content A better view Global sea level Traditional view of global warming Ocean heating equivalent of detonating more than a 150 million Hiroshima bombs in our oceans each year!

10 Almost the Entire Globe Warmed Between 1901 and 2012

11 Change Happening Everywhere you look..

12 CO 2 Emissions Largely Determine Future Warming

13 Temperature changes at the end of the 21 st C are dependent on scenario

14 The contrast between wet and dry regions and wet and dry seasons will increase

15 Overview Scientific context (AR5) The recent observational context Technological opportunities (the push), gaps and needs (the pull) Bureau activities (underway)

16 Northern Australia has Become Wetter Australian warm season rainfall deciles: November 1997 March 2013 Annual Northern Australian rainfall anomalies since 1900

17 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Southern Australia has Become Drier South Coastal Rainfall Anomalies (April to August) Year Australian cool season rainfall deciles: April 1997 to August 2012 April-August rainfall anomalies for southcoastal Australia since 1900

18 Tmean Anomaly ( C) Classical View of our Warming World Month Australian Mean Temperature Anomaly ( C) Start Year Australia has warmed by 1 C since 1950 Warming is most rapid in the subtropics Warming tending to be a little less in summer and autumn (strengthening monsoon) and particularly fast in spring

19 An Alternative View of our Warming World How often to I experience temperatures I haven t seen before? Number of hottest day records Number of coldest day records Number of hottest night records Number of coldest night records Year Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) maximum temperature Year Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) minimum temperature

20 An Alternative View of our Warming World Looking at national temperature How often am I breaking records - how often am I surprised? Cold How big is the surprise? Cold The base rate

21 Record 12-month Australian Temperature Hist Nat simulations: 1 year in 5705 exceeds 2005 record RCP : 41 years in 465 exceed 2005 record

22 Overview Scientific context (AR5) The observational context Technological opportunities (the push), gaps and needs (the pull) Priorities for partnerships

23 Advancing Seasonal Prediction May 2013 Statistical (SST based) Dynamical (POAMA) Higher skill, more variables, twice weekly updates (possible), consistency with weather forecasts, predictions of extreme events, potential for seamless forecasts

24 POAMA A model of the Real World

25 Increase in Forecast Skill: Rainfall < Statistical hit rate all seasons Dynamical (POAMA) based Statistical (SST) based Dynamical hit rate all seasons > Dynamical (POAMA)

26 SCO-Rebuild project 2013/2014 Building The Next Generation Outlook Service Key Features User-focussed design Range of user options: simple, intermediate and advanced Richer user interface with map interface ( MetEye ) based on BoM.Map like Google Maps Video briefing and contextual information Drill down to locations Seamless forecasting seasonal and intraseasonal

27 Predicting Extremes: POAMA two week forecasts Record warm start to Spring 2013 Forecast Observed Record hot January 2013

28 Overview Scientific context (AR5) The observational context Technological opportunities (the push), gaps and needs (the pull) Priorities for partnerships Forecasts, drought, extremes and projections

29 Developing POAMA/ACCESS POAMA-1 Development POAMA-1 Operational POAMA-1.5 Development POAMA-1.5 Operational Based on hindcasts up to 2001 POAMA-2P Development 2M Dev 2P Op 2M OP POAMA-3/ACCESS Dev P3 Op V1 V1.5 V2 V3 (ACCESS)

30 Improving Drought Services Current Service Future Service Improving Drought Information User-focussed design informed by extensive stakeholder engagement Product integration across weather, water and climate Integration across government (BoM, ABARES/DA, MDBA etc) Alignment with COAG drought policy reform Services across meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought New measures of drought: soil moisture, drought indices, streamflow Drought predictions and future projections

31 Improving Drought Services: September 2013 Upper Soil Moisture Rainfall Streamflows (August) Greenness

32 Developing a National Climate Extremes Service Improved monitoring, reporting and alerts for extremes Climate context and support for weather forecasts and warnings Intraseasonal and seasonal prediction of extremes Risk based analyses is this a 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 year event? Attribution of events and an event reporter Tailored services

33 Developing a National Climate Extremes Service POAMA 2 one week forecasts for early October heatwave

34 Questions & Comments Further Information:

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