Identifying climatic refugia for boreal species and ecosystems

Transcription

1 Identifying climatic refugia for boreal species and ecosystems Diana Stralberg University of Alberta AdaptWest Boreal Avian Modelling Project Ottawa, 13 April 2016 Co-authors: Erin Bayne, Fiona Schmiegelow, Andreas Hamann, Carlos Carroll, Scott Nielsen, Steve Matsuoka, Péter Sólymos, Samantha Song, Steve Cumming, Xianli Wang Photo Craig Machtans, Environment and Climate Change Canada

2 Introduction North American boreal forest 5.9 million km regularly breeding bird spp 2

3 Introduction Climate Change- Projected Biome Shifts Current Boreal -14% Boreal -23% Boreal -22% 3 Rehfeldt et al. 2012, Ecological Applications

4 Introduction Bioclimatic niche models provide working hypotheses about the future vbrant.eu b Future a Current Environmental space (niche) Geographic space 4

5 Steering committee: F. Schmiegelow, S. Song, S. Cumming, E. Bayne 5

6 Niche models Model-building region determined by future boreal climate conditions ~350,000 surveys at 120,000 locations available for sampling 6

7 Future Baselineclimate: climate: Moisture DD5 CMI Niche models Heat sum Interpolated th Assessment Report, CMIP3 Models IPCC 4station weather data from PRISM, WorldClim 19-GCM average, , A , Derived bioclimatic variables , (4-kmSRES grids) (Andreas Hamann s website, U of Alberta) 7

8 Niche models Projected shifts in diversity and density species richness index multi-species density (males / ha) Time 30/80 declining species 34/80 declining species 37/80 declining species 8 Averaged over 11 bootstrap samples, 2 variable sets, 4 GCMs Stralberg et al. 2015, Ecological Applications

9 Climate Refugia Challenges for conservation planning Prediction uncertainty Moving conservation targets Differential species vulnerability Lags in ecosystem response to climate 9

10 Climate Refugia Emphasis on climate refugia Areas of persistence during periods of major climatic change Warm or cold Species-specific or general Long-term or transitional In-situ or ex-situ Micro or macro Ice age forest refugia Weir and Schluter

11 Climate Refugia Scale Macro Drivers Latitude Continentality Importance High-velocity (flat) areas Weir and Schluter 2004 Elevation Coastal/Lake effects Micro Aspect Cold-air drainage Low-velocity (mountainous) areas 11 Dobrowski 2010

12 Boreal forest landscapes Boreal forest landscapes Michel Rapinski, ABMI Alberta Saskatchewan Bill de Groot, NRCan 12 Ducks Unlimited Northwest Territories Alaska St. Elias National Park

13 In situ refugia defined by overlap between current and projected future distributions Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Models available at borealbirds.databasin.org Climate-predicted density Core: mean current density Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Baseline Core loss Core gain Refugia Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea

14 In situ refugia defined by overlap between current and projected future distributions Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Models available at borealbirds.databasin.org Climate-predicted density Core: mean current density Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Baseline Core loss Core gain Refugia Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea

15 In situ refugia defined by overlap between current and projected future distributions Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Models available at borealbirds.databasin.org Climate-predicted density Core: mean current density Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Baseline Core loss Core gain Refugia Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea

16 In situ refugia criteria too strict for some species? Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Models available at borealbirds.databasin.org Climate-predicted density Core: mean current density Study Area Boreal / Arctic Transition Core loss Core gain Refugia Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea

17 Climate Refugia Broadening refugia considerations 1. Species-specific criteria: Differential dispersal capabilities Life-history traits Habitat associations (Stralberg et al. 2015) 2. Climatic criteria: Micro: landscape position (Ashcroft et al. 2012) Macro: biotic velocity (Carroll et al. 2015) 17

18 Species-specific Refugia Species-specific refugia criteria Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea D. Stralberg 18 B. Majoros, Cornell Lab of Ornithology

19 Species-specific Refugia Forest age preference determines overlap between suitable vegetation and climate Number of species E. Bayne Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga castanea 20 bird density upland spruce mixedwood 40 forest age aspen Forest Resource Inventory data (Cumming et al. 2015) 19 Minimum forest age threshold (years)

20 90-year refugia Species-Specific Refugia Species-specific modified refugia Proportion of models identified as core density Climate-based prediction (no lag) 30-year lag time Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea 60-year lag time 20

21 Biotic Velocity Refugia Biotic velocity-based refugia Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea 21 B. Majoros, Cornell Lab of Ornithology adaptwest.databasin.org

22 Biotic Velocity Refugia Refugia defined by backward biotic velocity Where will an ecosystem or species move to in the future? Which of those locations are closest to its current distribution? f2 f2 current f3 22

23 Biotic Velocity Refugia Refugia defined by backward biotic velocity Can be estimated using backward velocity Depends on unit of interest (species, ecosystem, or local climate type) 0 km/yr f2 1 km/yr f2 current 2 km/yr f3 23

24 Biotic Velocity Refugia Single species refugia index Bay-breasted Warbler Setophaga Castanaea B. Majoros, Cornell Lab of Ornithology A2 emisions scenario 4-GCM mean Index = normalized log distance 24

25 Biotic Velocity Refugia Common multi-species refugia Top 3 predictors: Climatic moisture index Chilling degree days Temperature seasonality 53 forest-associated species A2 emissions scenario 4-GCM mean Index = normalized log distance 25

26 Biotic Velocity Refugia Common multi-species refugia Top 3 predictors: Climatic moisture index Chilling degree days Temperature seasonality A2 emissions scenario 4-GCM mean Index = normalized log distance 26

27 Planning Tools Optimal conservation depends on targets boreal forest species

28 Planning Tools Species refugia as post-hoc evaluation tool Lisgo, Schmiegelow et al. in prep. 28 Canadian BEACONs Project Conservation Matrix Model

29 Planning Tools Species refugia as post-hoc evaluation tool % Area of Focal Species in Benchmark Network Focal Species Network 1 Network 2 Caribou Herd Ranges 12% 5% Moose HD 12% 10% Lisgo, Schmiegelow et al. in prep. Rusty Blackbird Habitat ( 0.8) Current Rusty Blackbird Refugia ( 80% model agree) BOCH (Old-growth) Core Habitat ( 0.8) Current BOCH (Old-growth) Refugia ( 80% model agree) Chinook Salmon (spawning streams) 10% 14% 10% 8% 4% 1% 5% 7% 0% 5% 29 Canadian BEACONs Project Conservation Matrix Model

30 Conclusions Conclusions Refugia = greater stability, conservation efficiency Still need to decide refugia for what, when, and at what scale? Boreal refugia characterized primarily by elevation and coastal proximity (moisture availability) Refugia mapping as proactive strategy for adaptation action given incomplete information about rate of future change 30

31 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Co-authors: Erin Bayne, Fiona Schmiegelow, Andreas Hamann, Carlos Carroll, Scott Nielsen, Steve Matsuoka, Péter Sólymos, Samantha Song, Steve Cumming, Xianli Wang 31