CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting

Transcription

1 CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS SOUTHERN ALBERTA Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting

2 Probability of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Less change In cold weather Historical Climate New Climate Much more hot weather and record hot weather Cold Average Hot

3 Average Annual Temperature has Increased Over the Last Century The Data % 4 13 %

4 Temperature o C Southern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Southern Alberta Climate Stations Environment Canada Adjusted and Homogenized Climate Data Year Lacombe Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Pincher Creek Lethbridge

5 Temperature o C o C/Century Southern Alberta Southern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Temperature Mann Kendall p = 5.0E-5 95% Confidence Level Year

6 Temperature o C 19.0 Southern Alberta Summer Temperature SA SUM T o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 6.5E-2 Confidence Level Year

7 Temperature o C Southern Alberta Winter Temperature SA WIN T o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 9.3E-4 95% Confidence Level Year

8 Temperature o C -2-4 Southern Alberta Winter Temperature +5.4 o C/Century SA WINT70 Mann Kendall p = % Confidence Level Year

9 Temperature o C Southern Alberta Mean Coldest Month Temperature +8.4 o C/Century AVG MCMT Significance F = 1.8E-2 95% Confidence Level Year

10 Heating Degree Days 6500 Southern Alberta Heating Degree Days AVG DD dd/century Mann Kendall p = 3.0E-2 95 % Confidence Level Year

11 Precipitation mm Southern Alberta Average Annual Precipitation Southern Alberta Annual Precipitation +20 mm/century Mann Kendall p = 0.14 Not Significant Year

12 Precipitation mm Southern Alberta Average Summer Precipitation Southern Alberta Annual Precipitation mm/century Mann Kendall p = 0.94 Not Significant Year

13 Precipitation mm Southern Alberta Average Winter Precipitation WIN AVG mm/century Mann Kendall p = 0.15 Not Significant Year

14 160 Southern Alberta Average Winter Precipitation Southern Alberta Winter Precipitation -141 mm/century 140 Mann Kendall p = % Confidence Level

15 Snow mm Water Equivalent Southern Alberta Precipitation as Snow mm/century AVG PAS Mann Kendall p = % Confidence Level Year

16 Detailed analyses have shown that the warming since 1900 is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change, including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate.

17 Climate Projections for Southern Alberta (2050s) PCIC A2, B1, A1B

18 Climate Profile for Southern Alberta Climate element Average temperature Average precipitation ANNUAL ANNUAL Projected future change in the Southern Alberta Region By 2050s +2.1 o C (+1.5 to +3.0) +5% (-1% to +12%) Average temperature Average precipitation Average temperature Average precipitation SUMMER SUMMER WINTER WINTER 2.4 o C (+1.6 to +3.3) -1% (-11% to +6%) 2.3 o C (+1.1 to +3.4) +10% (-3% to +19%) Average precipitation Average Snowfall SPRING SPRING +9% (2% to 22%) -12% (-34% to -3%)

19 Climate Profile for Southern Alberta Climate element Heating Degree Days ANNUAL Cooling Degree Days ANNUAL Growing Degree Days ANNUAL Climate Moisture Deficit SUMMER Frost Free Days ANNUAL Projected future change in the Southern Alberta Region By 2050s -706 days (-466 to -940) +41 days (+17 to +115) +343 days (+214 to +500) -7.0 mm (-46 to +13) +20 days (+13 to +35)

20 Frequency Southern Northern Alberta Alberta Historical Mean Annual Climate Temperature vs Projections Southern Alberta 20 th Century climate Baseline Data Range o C 6

21 Frequency Southern Northern Alberta Alberta Historical Mean Annual Climate Temperature vs Projections Southern Alberta 20 th Century climate 2.1 o C Projected climate during 2050s % 34.1% % 13.6% % 2.1% 2σ Data Range o C σ μ 1σ 2σ

22 Temperature o C/Century Southern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Mean 2.1 o C 3.0 o C 1.5 o C Are PCIC Model Projections Plausible? Are the Model Projections Plausible? Range 10 th -90 th percentile +2.3 o C/Century Model projections for Northern Alberta o C above baseline 2 Year

23 Temperature o C Southern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Extreme Years o C/Century Year

24 Athabasca Glacier Change in 88 years

25 Mean Annual Flow (m/sec) Stream Flow Trend and Ice Volume Projection The significant decline in recorded flow can be attributed primarily the increasing diversion and consumption of the river water, mostly for irrigation Projected changes in mean flow for the SSR and it major tributaries by the 2050s. Source: SEAWA Watershed Report

26 Stream Flow Trend and Ice Volume Projection Alberta glaciers will lose 80-90% of their volume by Glacier contributions to stream flow reduced by similar amount.

27 Temperature and Extreme Rainfall Intensity The results are that rainfall extremes are increasing on average globally. They show that there is a 7% increase in extreme rainfall intensity for every degree increase in global atmospheric temperature. Westra et al., 2013

28 Environment Canada June Climate Normals P = 88.8 mm June 19-21, Rainfall = 265 mm 3 x June Monthly Average in three days Kananaskis Daily Precipitation June 19, Rainfall = 157 mm ~200 year RI June 17, Rainfall = 129 mm ~100 year RI

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