Fate of permafrost in Denali National Park and Preserve - A modeling investigation
|
|
- Candace Bryant
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Photo credit: Jacob W Frank Fate of permafrost in Denali National Park and Preserve - A modeling investigation Santosh K Panda, Sergey S Marchenko, Vladimir E Romanovsky Permafrost Laboratory, Geophysical Institute, UAF, Alaska David K Swanson National Park Service, Fairbank, Alaska skpanda@alaska.edu February 27, 2014
2 Outline Permafrost and Active-layer Permafrost in Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA) Permafrost model (GIPL 1.0) Salient features Limitations Input data Output products Modeling results Accuracy assessment Summary 2
3 Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic matter) that remains at or below 0 C for at least two consecutive years, for natural climatic reasons (van Everdingen, 1998). Photo Courtesy: M. Gooseff Left: U.S. Army Permafrost Tunnel at Fox, Fairbanks Right: Ice-rich permafrost near Toolik Field Station, Alaska 3
4 Active layer The layer of the ground above permafrost that thaws in summer and freezes again in winter (Muller, 1947). William and Smith (1989) 4
5 DENA Permafrost
6 Location of DENA in Alaska
7 Why care about DENA permafrost? Permafrost is an important driver of Denali s ecosystems because thermal characteristics of the ground directly control or indirectly influence Denali s local hydrology, pattern of vegetation, and wildlife communities. (Adema, 2006) Permafrost as foundation State of permafrost Form and amount of ice Wigand Creek thermokarst developed by thawing of icewedge polygons, Toklat Basin, DENA (Adema, 2006) 7
8 Thermokarsts, Toklat Basin, DENA a b d c e f (a-b) Wigand Creek Thermokarst (c-d) Boundary Thermokarst (e-f) Hook s Hole Thermokarst Yocum et al. (2006) 8
9 A generalized permafrost map of DENA N 100 km A product of the joint NPS- NRCS six year soils survey of DENA (Clark and Duffy, 2006) (>80% of the soil) Continuous (20-80%) Discontinuous (5-20%) Sporadic Nearly 45% of the park underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost 32% Not rated 1375 Sites in 16,676 km 2 area Or 1 site per 12 km 2 9
10 Modeling 1. Permafrost presence or absence 2. State of permafrost 3. Can be improved 10
11 Permafrost model GIPL
12 GIPL 1.0 model salient features Models near-surface permafrost An equilibrium model (temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer and its thickness) Conductive heat transfer Analytical solution of the ground heat equation that includes freezing/thawing processes (Kudryavtsev et al. 1974; Romanovsky and Osterkamp 1997) Accounts for the effects of snow cover, surface vegetation, soil moisture and soil thermal properties Ignores the effect of geothermal heat flux 12
13 GIPL 1.0 model limitations Assumes Steady state temperature regime (annual or decadal cycle) No within layer variation in thermal properties No change in surface vegetation Does not take into account Unfrozen water content Effect of wind on snow distribution (thickness) 13
14 GIPL 1.0 model conceptual diagram (Marchenko and Romanovsky, 2012) 14
15 Input Data Climate data (mean monthly air temperature and monthly total precipitation) CRU Climate data ( ); Decades: , GCM composite A1B Scenario ( ); Decades: , , Ecosystem Properties Snow Map: Nine snow classes (Marchenko, unpublished) Fresh snow density and maximum snow density Ecotype Map: Twenty Ecotypes (Stevens et al, 2001) Surface vegetation thickness Thermal diffusivity in frozen and thawed state Soil Map: One-Hundred-and-Fifty-One soil classes (Clark and Duffy, 2006) Volumetric heat capacity in frozen and thawed state Thermal conductivity in frozen and thawed state Volumetric water content 15
16 Output products Average ground surface soil surface bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Thermal offset Thickness of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Thickness of snow cover Input resolution = Output resolution 16
17 Input maps for DENA permafrost modeling
18 Input Decadal Mean Air Temperature CRU
19 Input Decadal Mean Annual Precipitation CRU
20 Input Snow Map Marchenko (Unpublished) 20
21 Input Soil Map Clark and Duffy (2006) 21
22 Input Ecotype Map Stevens et al. (2001) Derived from Landsat images 28 m Spatial resolution 22
23 Permafrost modeling results
24 Permafrost Map CRU forcing 28 m spatial resolution Ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -1.6 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 651 mm Modeled permafrost characteristics: Near-surface 51% of DENA Mean decadal permafrost temp.: -1.1 C 24
25 Thickness of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Layer Map CRU forcing Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -1.6 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 651 mm Modeled active-layer characteristics: Mean Decadal ALT: 1.1 m Active-Layer Thickness < 1 m: 19 % 25
26 Products accuracy assessment
27 Warm-bias Test CRU forcing Clark and Duffy (2006 ) Field data (Aug.-Sept ) Permafrost present at 408 Sites Agree (88%) Disagree (12%) Modeled Present Absent Field Present Present Possible reasons of disagreement: o Scale o Model limitations 27
28 Cold-bias Test CRU forcing Clark and Duffy (2006 ) Field data (Aug.-Sept ) Permafrost absent at 967 Sites Agree (84%) Disagree (16%) Modeled Present Absent Field Absent Absent Possible reasons of disagreement: o Scale o Model limitations 28
29 29
30 Comparison with recorded ground temperature Recorded at climate stations Dunkle Hills Stampede Toklat Average air temperature -2.8 C ( ) Average ground temperature at 0.02 m 1.1 C ( ) -4.1 C ( ) 0.4 C ( ) -3.1 C ( ) 1.0 C ( ) CRU average air temperature ( ) -1.8 C -1.6 C -1.4 C Modeled ( ) Average ground surface temperature 0.3 C 0.9 C 0.6 C Average ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer m m m Smaller (< 1 C) differences between modeled ground surface temperatures and recorded ground temperatures (at 0.02 m) 30
31 Modeled permafrost maps with past climate forcing
32 Permafrost Map CRU forcing Ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -3.5 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 679 mm Modeled permafrost characteristics: Near-surface 75% of DENA Mean decadal permafrost temp.: -2.1 C 32
33 Thickness of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Layer Map CRU forcing Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -3.5 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 679 mm Modeled permafrost characteristics: Mean Decadal ALT: 1.1 m Active-Layer Thickness < 1 m: 38% 33
34 Modeled permafrost maps with future climate forcing
35 Permafrost Map 5-GCM forcing Ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -0.7 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 845 mm Modeled permafrost characteristics: Near-surface 6% of DENA Mean decadal permafrost temp.: -1.3 C 35
36 Permafrost Map 5-GCM forcing Ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: +2.7 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 938 mm Modeled permafrost characteristics: Near-surface 1% of DENA Mean decadal permafrost temp.: -3.3 C 36
37 Thickness of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Layer Map 5-GCM forcing Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: -0.7 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 845 mm Modeled active-layer characteristics: Mean Decadal ALT: 1.1 m Active-Layer Thickness < 1 m: 2 % 37
38 Thickness of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Layer Map 5-GCM forcing Climate input: Decadal mean air temp.: +2.7 C Decadal mean annual precip.: 938 mm Modeled active-layer characteristics: Mean Decadal ALT: 0.8 m Active-Layer Thickness < 1 m: 0.7 % 38
39 ( C) Decadal Mean Air Temperature ( C) (mm) Decadal Mean Annual Precipitation (mm) (%) Near-surface permafrost (% of DENA area) s 2000s 2050s 2090s 39
40 Summary Improved high-resolution (28 m) permafrost maps 86% agreement with field observations Smaller (< 1 C) differences between modeled and recorded ground temperatures Scale and model limitations Near-surface stable permafrost distribution is predicted to decline from present 51% of DENA area to a mere 6% by 2050s and to 1% by 2090s Only tiny areas of bedrock terrain at highest elevations are predicted to maintain stable permafrost 40
41 Broader impacts How permafrost distribution may evolve in response to changing climate? Identify sites with higher risk of permafrost thawing Enable informed decision making 41
42 References Adema 2006 Permafrost landscapes. DENA. National Park Service Clark and Duffy 2006 Soil survey of DENA, Alaska. National Cooperative Soil Survey, 822p. Kudryavtsev et al Osnovy merzlotnogo prognoza (in Russian), MGU Press, 431p. [CRREL Translation: Fundamentals of Frost Forecasting in Geological Engineering Investigations, CRREL Draft Translation 606, 1977, 489p.] Lachenbruch 1959 Periodic heat flow in a stratified medium.usgs Bulletin, 1083-A, 36 p. Marchenko and Romanovsky 2012 The GIPL model for estimation of.available at Romanovsky 1987 Approximate calculation of the insulation.geokriologicheskie Issledovania (in Russian), MGU Press, vol. 23: Romanovsky and Osterkamp 1995 Interannual variations of the thermal regime. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 6(4): Romanovsky and Osterkamp 1997 Thawing of active layer.permafrost and Periglacial Processes 8(1): 1-22 Stevens et al DENA landcover mapping project.nps/dena/nrtr-2001/001. NPS, Fort Collins, Colorado. Sturm et al A seasonal snow cover classification system Journal of Climate 8(5): Yershov ED 1984 Thermal-physical properties of Earth materials (In Russian). MSU Press, p
43 Acknowledgements Pam Sousane (NPS, Fairbanks) Louise Farquharson, Prajna Regmi, Bill Cable, Reginald Muskett, and Alexander (Sasha) Kholodov (GIPL, UAF) Funding Source: National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska 43
44 Permafrost-affected NPS Units 44
45 Photo credit: Daniel A Leifheit Thank you for your time and attention.
46 46
47 Summary statistics of climate and modeled permafrost characteristics Climate characteristics Mean decadal air temperature ( C) Mean decadal precipitation (mm) Modeled permafrost characteristics Permafrost distribution (%) Mean decadal permafrost temperature ( C) Mean decadal active-layer thickness (m)
High-Resolution Permafrost Modeling in Denali National Park and Preserve Natural Resource Technical Report
High-Resolution Permafrost Modeling in Denali National Park and Preserve Natural Resource Technical Report Santosh K Panda Sergey S Marchenko Vladimir E Romanovsky Geophysical Institute University of Alaska
Short Communication Thermal Conductivity of Soils in the Active Layer of Eastern Siberia
PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES Permafrost and Periglac. Process. 16: 217 222 (2005) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/ppp.502 Short Communication Thermal
Pan-Arctic permafrost thermal conditions: Where does the Yamal Peninsula fit?
Pan-Arctic permafrost thermal conditions: Where does the Yamal Peninsula fit? V. Romanovsky, A. Kholodov and S. Marchenko University of Alaska Fairbanks 1600 The Mammoth Steppe Concept: R. D. Guthrie,
REMOTE SENSING OF PERMAFROST IN NORTHERN ENVIRONMENTS
REMOTE SENSING OF PERMAFROST IN NORTHERN ENVIRONMENTS What is permafrost? What can we monitor with satellite data? Permafrost is an Essential Climate Variable About 25 % of the land surface is underlain
An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09502, doi:10.1029/2007gl029536, 2007 An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost V. A. Alexeev, 1 D. J. Nicolsky,
IMPACT OF SOIL FREEZING ON THE CONTINENTAL-SCALE SEASONAL CYCLE SIMULATED BY A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
IMPACT OF SOIL FREEZING ON THE CONTINENTAL-SCALE SEASONAL CYCLE SIMULATED BY A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL Kumiko Takata 1, Masahide Kimoto 2 1. Domestic Research Fellow, National Institute of Environmental
Snowcover accumulation and soil temperature at sites in the western Canadian Arctic
Snowcover accumulation and soil temperature at sites in the western Canadian Arctic Philip Marsh 1, C. Cuell 1, S. Endrizzi 1, M. Sturm 2, M. Russell 1, C. Onclin 1, and J. Pomeroy 3 1. National Hydrology
Periglacial Geomorphology
Periglacial Geomorphology Periglacial Geomorphology Periglacial: literally means around glacial - term introduced in 1909 to describe landforms and processes around glaciated areas. Periglacial environments:
Climate of Alaska: Past, Present and Future
Climate of Alaska: Past, Present and Future Pond shrinkage in Alaska's Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, 1951-2000. Source: USGCRP (2009) Uma S. Bhatt, usbhatt@alaska.edu John Walsh for many of today
PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES & LANDFORMS
PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES & LANDFORMS Periglacial processes all non-glacial processes in cold climates average annual temperature between -15 C and 2 C fundamental controlling factors are intense frost action
Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension
Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project. November 28 th & 29 th, 2018
1 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project November 28 th & 29 th, 2018 Climate Dataset: Aitik Closure Project 2 Early in the Closure Project, consensus was reached to assemble a long-term daily climate
ACTIVE LAYER MONITORING IN NORTHERN WEST SIBERIA
ACTIVE LAYER MONITORING IN NORTHERN WEST SIBERIA A. V. Pavlov Earth Cryosphere Institute, B RAS 142452, Zeleny-village, 5-67, Noginsk district, Moscow region, Russia e-mail: emelnikov@glas.apc.org Abstract
WRF Historical and PGW Simulations over Alaska
WRF Historical and PGW Simulations over Alaska Andrew J. Newman 1, Andrew J. Monaghan 2, Martyn P. Clark 1, Kyoko Ikeda 1, Lulin Xue 1, and Jeff R. Arnold 3 GEWEX CPCM Workshop II 1 National Center for
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
Observations of surface dynamics with thermokarst initiation, Yukechi site, Central Yakutia
Permafrost, Phillips, Springman & Arenson (eds) 2003 Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, ISBN 90 5809 582 7 Observations of surface dynamics with thermokarst initiation, Yukechi site, Central Yakutia A. Fedorov
Soil climate and frost heave along the Permafrost/Ecological North American Arctic Transect. Abstract
Soil climate and frost heave along the Permafrost/Ecological North American Arctic Transect V. E. Romanovsky, S. S. Marchenko, R.Daanen Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks D. O. Sergeev
Climate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.
The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi
INFLUENCE OF THE SEASONAL SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND THERMAL REGIME: AN OVERVIEW
INFLUENCE OF THE SEASONAL SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND THERMAL REGIME: AN OVERVIEW Tingjun Zhang National Snow and Ice Data Center Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of
Local Climate Change Impacts for Central Illinois
Local Climate Change Impacts for Central Illinois Molly Woloszyn Extension Climatologist Midwestern Regional Climate Center & Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant Urbana Sustainability Advisory Commission February
Frost boils, soil ice content and apparent thermal diffusivity
Frost boils, soil ice content and apparent thermal diffusivity P. P. Overduin Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA C.-L. Ping Palmer Research Center,
Permafrost: Earth Observation Applications: Introduction
Polar Meeting 3 Permafrost: Earth Observation Applications: Introduction Mark Drinkwater CNES, Paris, 22 23 May, 2013 Remote Sensing of Permafrost which Remote Sensing products? applicability to Permafrost
Spa$al and temporal variability of ac$ve layer thickness under changing clima$c condi$ons in Northwest Siberia
Spa$al and temporal variability of ac$ve layer thickness under changing clima$c condi$ons in Northwest Siberia Dmitry Streletskiy 1, Nikolay Shiklomanov 2 Fritz Nelson 1, 1 University of Delaware, Newark,
Using High-Resolution Airphotos for Assessing Landscape Change. Torre Jorgenson
Using High-Resolution Airphotos for Assessing Landscape Change Torre Jorgenson It s All a Matter of Scale Landsat TM 28-m pixel Ikonos Fused 1-m pixel Digital Camera 0.2-m pixel Examples of Landscape
Great Lakes Update. Volume 193: 2015 January through June Summary. Vol. 193 Great Lakes Update August 2015
Great Lakes Update Volume 193: 2015 January through June Summary The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) monitors the water levels of each of the Great Lakes. This report provides a summary of the Great
CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL HYDROLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US: Evidence of Changes, Model Projections, and Remote Sensing Approaches
CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL HYDROLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US: Evidence of Changes, Model Projections, and Remote Sensing Approaches Michael A. Rawlins Dept of Geosciences University of Massachusetts OUTLINE
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
RESEARCH ARTICLE Key Points: We develop scenarios of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to projected climate change The ground thermal properties are upscaled using
Permafrost & climate change in northern Finland Dr Steve Gurney
Permafrost & climate change in northern Finland Dr Steve Gurney Senior Lecturer in Geomorphology University of Reading, UK Docent in cold climate geomorphology University of Turku, Finland Topics Introduction
Winter Precipitation, Sublimation, and Snow-Depth in the Pan-Arctic: Critical Processes and a Half Century of Change
Winter Precipitation, Sublimation, and Snow-Depth in the Pan-Arctic: Critical Processes and a Half Century of Change PI s: Glen E. Liston, Colorado State University Larry J. Mahrt, Oregon State University
Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks. Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC
Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC Outline Three Snow Lectures: 1. Why you should care about snow: Snow and the cryosphere Classes of
SVALBARD. Environmental changes in Svalbard since the last glacial maximum THE ROLE OF PERMAFROST
SVALBARD Environmental changes in Svalbard since the last glacial maximum THE ROLE OF PERMAFROST Bernd Etzelmüller, Oslo, Norway With contribution by Hanne H. Christiansen, UNIS, Svalbard Discussion points
Freezing n-factors in discontinuous permafrost terrain, Takhini River, Yukon Territory, Canada
Permafrost, Phillips, Springman & Arenson (eds) 23 Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, ISBN 9 589 582 7 Freezing n-factors in discontinuous permafrost terrain, Takhini River, Yukon Territory, Canada K.C. Karunaratne
Extent of Periglacial = Global Permafrost Permafrost: Soil and/or rock where temperatures remain below 0 degrees C for 2 or more years.
Geog 1000 - Lecture 34 Periglacial Environments and Paleoclimatology http://scholar.ulethbridge.ca/chasmer/classes/ Today s Lecture (Pgs 422-434) 1. Exam questions from last week, and today 2. Extent of
The N-Factor of Nonsorted Circles Along a Climate Gradient in Arctic Alaska
PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES Permafrost and Periglac. Process. 17: 279 289 (2006) Published online 17 October 2006 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com).563 The N-Factor of Nonsorted
A High Elevation Climate Monitoring Network
A High Elevation Climate Monitoring Network Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada AGU San Francisco WRCC / OSU Nevada Precip-Elevation Distribution 100%
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE. Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center
Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Remember These? Factor 1: Our Energy Source Factor 2: Revolution & Tilt Factor 3: Rotation!
Mapping the extent of temperature-sensitive snowcover and the relative frequency of warm winters in the western US
Mapping the extent of temperature-sensitive snowcover and the relative frequency of warm winters in the western US Anne Nolin Department of Geosciences Oregon State University Acknowledgements Chris Daly,
Alaska, USA. Sam Robbins
Using ArcGIS to determine erosion susceptibility within Denali National Park, Alaska, USA Sam Robbins Introduction Denali National Park is six million acres of wild land with only one road and one road
OBSERVATIONS OF PERMAFROST-LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS RELATED TO ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCES, YUKECHI STUDY SITE, CENTRAL YAKUTIA
OBSERVATIONS OF PERMAFROST-LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS RELATED TO ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCES, YUKECHI STUDY SITE, CENTRAL YAKUTIA A.N. Fedorov, P.Ya. Konstantinov, I.S. Vassiliev, N.P. Bosikov, Ya.I. Torgovkin,
Regional offline land surface simulations over eastern Canada using CLASS. Diana Verseghy Climate Research Division Environment Canada
Regional offline land surface simulations over eastern Canada using CLASS Diana Verseghy Climate Research Division Environment Canada The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) Originally developed for the
Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project (FERC No ) Riparian Vegetation Study Downstream of the Proposed Susitna-Watana Dam Study Plan Section 11.
(FERC No. 14241) Riparian Vegetation Study Downstream of the Proposed Susitna-Watana Dam Study Plan Section 11.6 2014 2015 Study Implementation Report Prepared for Prepared by ABR, Inc. Environmental Research
Climate Regions. Combining Climate Graphs and Köppen s Classification
Lab 15 Climate Regions Combining knowledge of the global patterns behind the major climatic controls, this lab will teach students how to construct climate graphs and then allow them to explore patterns
Doug Kluck NOAA Kansas City, MO National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) for the Missouri River Basin Drought Early Warning Information System (DEWS) & Runoff Trends in the Missouri Basin & Latest Flood Outlook Doug Kluck
Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply
Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Roger Bales, UC Merced Snow conditions Snow & climate change Research directions Sierra Nevada snow
REGIONAL ACTIVE LAYER MONITORING ACROSS THE SPORADIC, DISCONTINUOUS AND CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONES, MACKENZIE VALLEY, NORTHWESTERN CANADA
REGIONAL ACTIVE LAYER MONITORING ACROSS THE SPORADIC, DISCONTINUOUS AND CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONES, MACKENZIE VALLEY, NORTHWESTERN CANADA F. Mark Nixon 1, Alan E. Taylor 2 1. Geological Survey of Canada,
Active layer and permafrost monitoring in Livingston Island, Antarctic. First results from 2000 to 2001
Permafrost, Phillips, Springman & Arenson (eds) 2003 Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, ISBN 90 5809 582 7 Active layer and permafrost monitoring in Livingston Island, Antarctic. First results from 2000 to 2001
High resolution ground-based snow measurements during the NASA CLPX-II campaign, North Slope, Alaska
High resolution ground-based snow measurements during the NASA CLPX-II campaign, North Slope, Alaska H.P. Marshall1, N. Rutter2, K. Tape3, M. Sturm4, R. Essery5 1 Boise State University, Department of
Supplement of Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
Supplement of Biogeosciences, 14, 5143 5169, 2017 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017-supplement Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Supplement
NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS,
Climate change projections for Ontario: an updated synthesis for policymakers and planners
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Climate change projections for Ontario: an updated synthesis for policymakers and planners Shannon Fera and Adam Hogg Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and
Arizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses
Arizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses A Water Sustainability Institute, Technology and Research Initiative Fund Project Christopher L. Castro, Francina Dominguez, Stephen Bieda
Thomas P. Phillips CIRES Prof K. Steffen, L. Colgan PhD ABD, D. McGrath MA
Thomas P. Phillips CIRES Prof K. Steffen, L. Colgan PhD ABD, D. McGrath MA Problem: we know very little about the processes happening within the Greenland Ice Sheet. What is the velocity at the base? What
Lecture 10 Glaciers and glaciation
Lecture 10 Glaciers and glaciation Outline Importance of ice to people! Basics of glaciers formation, classification, mechanisms of movement Glacial landscapes erosion and deposition by glaciers and the
Modeling study of talik freeze-up and permafrost response under drained thaw lakes on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 109,, doi:10.1029/2003jd003886, 2004 Modeling study of talik freeze-up and permafrost response under drained thaw lakes on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain Feng Ling
Permafrost Dynamics at the Fairbanks Permafrost Experimental Station Near Fairbanks, Alaska
Permafrost Dynamics at the Fairbanks Permafrost Experimental Station Near Fairbanks, Alaska T.A. Douglas Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Fairbanks, AK M. Torre Jorgenson Alaska Biological
SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: October 21, 2013 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System March 26, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System March 26, 2019 The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right:
Drought and Climate Extremes Indices for the North American Drought Monitor and North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System. Richard R. Heim Jr.
Drought and Climate Extremes Indices for the North American Drought Monitor and North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System Richard R. Heim Jr. NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center Asheville,
BEAUFORT SEA ICE CONCENTRATION AND THE CLIMATE OF THE ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE
Ice in the Environment: Proceedings of the 16th IAHR International Symposium on Ice Dunedin, New Zealand, 2nd 6th December 2002 International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research BEAUFORT
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System May 23, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet
By Charis Smith, Cassie Scruggs, Erol Chandler, & Shawna Fox Anderson
By Charis Smith, Cassie Scruggs, Erol Chandler, & Shawna Fox Anderson What are the different types of ice? How was the ice identified? What can we draw from comparing Mars ice with the ice seen here on
Research highlights from permafrost research: Rock glacier mapping in the HKH region with Google Earth
Research highlights from permafrost research: Rock glacier mapping in the HKH region with Google Earth M.-O. Schmid, P. Baral, S. Gruber, S. Shahi, T. Shrestha, D. Stumm, and P. Wester International Centre
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
Precipitation. Standardized Precipitation Index. NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System January 3, 2017
1/3/2017 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System January 3, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP,
Northwest Alaska Parks Webinar #2 Scenario Building: Choosing drivers
Climate Change Planning in Alaska s National Parks Northwest Alaska Parks Webinar #2 Scenario Building: Choosing drivers 1 Overall Project Summary Changing climatic conditions are rapidly impacting environmental,
Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated
Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated Klaus Wolter University of Colorado at Boulder, klaus.wolter@noaa.gov Kudos to Joe Barsugli and Jon Eischeid Seasonal Precipitation
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma. Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey OCS LEGISLATIVE MANDATES Conduct and report on studies of climate and weather
Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University
Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Northern Colorado Business Innovations November 20, 2013 Loveland, Colorado
2016 Irrigated Crop Production Update
2016 Irrigated Crop Production Update Mapping Climate Trends and Weather Extremes Across Alberta for the Period 1950-2010 Stefan W. Kienzle Department of Geography University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada
Definitions Weather and Climate Climates of NYS Weather Climate 2012 Characteristics of Climate Regions of NYS NYS s Climates 1.
Definitions Climates of NYS Prof. Anthony Grande 2012 Weather and Climate Weather the state of the atmosphere at one point in time. The elements of weather are temperature, t air pressure, wind and moisture.
Climate variability and change in the Canadian Eastern Subarctic IRIS region (Chapter 2)
Climate variability and change in the Canadian Eastern Subarctic IRIS region (Chapter 2) Lead authors 1 Ross Brown and 2 Mickaël Lemay Contributing Authors 2 Carl Barrette, 2 Michel Allard, 2 Yves Bégin,
2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
Global Level GIS. Geocryological Map of the USSR, 1: , 1991
Geocryological Map of the USSR, 1: 2 500 000, 1991 (Editor E.D.Ershov, Moscow State University, Faculty of Geology, Geocryological department) Global Level GIS Compiled for almost 20 years; Based on modeling
Climatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future
Climatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future A Collaborative Effort by: CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE INSTITUTE FOR A SUSTAINABLE
Climates of NYS. Definitions. Climate Regions of NYS. Storm Tracks. Climate Controls 10/13/2011. Characteristics of NYS s Climates
Definitions Climates of NYS Prof. Anthony Grande 2011 Weather and Climate Weather the state of the atmosphere at one point in time. The elements of weather are temperature, air pressure, wind and moisture.
Future Climate and Sea Level
Future Climate and Sea Level Tonight: 2 nd night on human changes and controversy around them. three night series : 1) An Inconvenient truth 2) Impacts: Observed Warming and Projected Sea Level Changes
How Will the Colorado Run? The Colorado River in a Warmer World
How Will the Colorado Run? The Colorado River in a Warmer World The Future of the Colorado River October 13, 2018 Brad Udall Senior Scientist/Scholar Colorado State University Bradley.Udall@colostate.edu
Snow processes and their drivers in Sierra Nevada (Spain), and implications for modelling.
Snow processes and their drivers in Sierra Nevada (Spain), and implications for modelling. M.J. Polo, M.J. Pérez-Palazón, R. Pimentel, J. Herrero Granada,02 de November 2016 SECTIONS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Introduction
ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF COUPLED-FLOW EFFECTS IN THE ACTIVE LAYER AND UPPER PERMAFROST, BARROW, ALASKA U.S.A.
ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF COUPLED-FLOW EFFECTS IN THE ACTIVE LAYER AND UPPER PERMAFROST, BARROW, ALASKA U.S.A. S. I. Outcalt 1, K. M. Hinkel 2, F. E. Nelson 3, L. L. Miller 4 1. Department of Geography,
Water information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS
Water information system advances American River basin Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Opportunities Unprecedented level of information from low-cost
A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005gl025080, 2005 A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century David M. Lawrence 1 and Andrew G. Slater
Cryosphere Interface. Nicole Mölders UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS
Cryosphere Interface Nicole Mölders 1 Cryosphere encompasses sea ice, lake ice, river ice, snow-cover, glaciers, ice-caps, icesheets, frozen ground, permafrost From: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/cryosphere_fuller_projection.png
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,
Regional-scale permafrost mapping using the TTOP ground temperature model
Permafrost, Phillips, Springman & Arenson (eds) 2003 Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, ISBN 90 5809 582 7 Regional-scale permafrost mapping using the TTOP ground temperature model J.F. Wright, C. Duchesne & M.M.
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Waterways from glaciers to coastal waters in Iceland. Jórunn Harðardóttir, IMO Nordic WFD conference September 26, 2012
Waterways from glaciers to coastal waters in Iceland Jórunn Harðardóttir, IMO Nordic WFD conference September 26, 2012 What to include and what not to include? Hydrology of Iceland Much on glaciers and
Climate Change and Runoff Statistics in the Rhine Basin: A Process Study with a Coupled Climate-Runoff Model
IACETH Climate Change and Runoff Statistics in the Rhine Basin: A Process Study with a Coupled Climate-Runoff Model Jan KLEINN, Christoph Frei, Joachim Gurtz, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Christoph Schär Institute
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Weather Station Monthly Summary Report Month: February Year: 2017 Webcam catching a hawk watching over the station. Temperature: Mean T max was 54.4 F which
EC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System
EC-PORS III Research Sodankylä, February 2012 Developing a Polar Prediction System Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop,
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
Improving Streamflow Prediction in Snow- fed River Basins via Satellite Snow Assimilation
Improving Streamflow Prediction in Snow- fed River Basins via Satellite Snow Assimilation Yuqiong Liu NASA GSFC & University of Maryland, College Park Co- authors: Christa Peters- Lidard, Sujay Kumar,
Christopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona
Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications Christopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric
Glacier (and ice sheet) Mass Balance
Glacier (and ice sheet) Mass Balance The long-term average position of the highest (late summer) firn line is termed the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) Firn is old snow How an ice sheet works (roughly):
Missouri River Basin Water Management
Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING
Lesson 10.1 Assignment
Lesson 10.1 Assignment Name Date What, Me Negative? Introduction to Negative Integers Use the scenario to answer each question. Roller coasters have a rich history in the United States, and engineers are
What Measures Can Be Taken To Improve The Understanding Of Observed Changes?
What Measures Can Be Taken To Improve The Understanding Of Observed Changes? Convening Lead Author: Roger Pielke Sr. (Colorado State University) Lead Author: David Parker (U.K. Met Office) Lead Author:
NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System December 11, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and
Sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter
JOURNAL of GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, F02011, doi: 10.1029/2007JF000883, 2008 Sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil