EC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System

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1 EC-PORS III Research Sodankylä, February 2012 Developing a Polar Prediction System

2 Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop, Oslo (October 2010) -> WWRP-PPP 3. EC-PORS II (Oct. 2010) -> GIPPS Concept 4. WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Regions (Oct. 2010) -> WCRP-PPI

3 Medium-term prediction (years to decades) WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Climate Bergen, October, 2010 Programme 1. Sea ice variability; interaction with atm & ocean 2. Oceanic variability; sea ice impacts; deep & bottom water formation 3. Stratospheric and tropospheric impacts 4. Polar processes: boundary layers, clouds, a-i-o coupling 5. Seasonal predictability 6. Decadal predictability 7. Roadmap discussion

4 Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop, Oslo (October 2010) -> WWRP-PPP 3. EC-PORS II (Oct. 2010) -> GIPPS Concept 4. WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Regions (Oct. 2010) -> WCRP-PPI 5. WMO Congress (June 2011) -> endorsed GIPPS 6. WWRP/THORPEX PPP SG Meeting Nov.2011 Thomas Jung -> Implementation Plan 1 7. WCRP PPI (April 2012) -> Implementation Plan 2 8. EC-PORS III -> Imp.Plan1 + Imp.Plan2 = GIPPS

5 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Side Event on Strengthening WMO Polar Activities Observing the Cryosphere with 2020 Vision Geneva, 23 May 2011 Peter Lemke (on behalf of EC-PORS)

6 Polar Regions in the Weather, Climate and Water System cryospheric impacts on surface energy balance forcing of global ocean/atmosphere circulations strong impact on sea level change many governing processes not adequately known (atm-ice-ocean int.) strongest response to global warming

7 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Values 1. Improved services: transportation, logistics and planning, biological and energy resources management, water resources, tourism, marine and aviation activities, disaster risk reduction 2. Improved understanding of key physical processes that drive the polar weather and climate system 3. Providing input to global models to ensure improved representation of polar processes

8 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Time-scales 1. Short-term prediction (hours to seasons) 2. Medium-term predictability (years to decades) 3. Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries) For all time-scales (except a few hours) the full coupled system (atm/land/ice/ocean) has to be addressed.

9 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Focus on predicting 1. Typical synoptic and hydrological variables 2. Sea ice concentration, thickness, motion, internal forces 3. Seasonally frozen ground, active layer 4. Snow cover 5. Ice sheet mass balance, dynamics 6. etc.

10 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Key Gaps 1. Understanding key processes and interactions in Polar Regions: stable boundary layers, polar clouds and precipitation, sea ice/ocean dynamics, hydrology, permafrost, ice sheet dynamics 2. Sustaining in-situ and satellite observations in Polar Regions, including reference observations 3. Products and services for Polar Regions

11 Origin of inhomogeneity over sea ice covered regions: Leads and polynyas Photos: J. Hartmann Surface topography of sea ice (ridges)

12 Leads in the Arctic (March 2003) ~ 80 km

13 Air temperature as fct of sea ice concentration 20 K 2 K 2 % C. Lüpkes, AWI 10 m ABL temperature after 12 hr simulation

14 Heat conduction through sea ice 1m ice reduces the heat supply to the atmosphere by an order of magnitude

15 Airborne EM sea ice thickness sounding EM bird

16 Ice thickness variability in the Transpolar Drift: 1991, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004 & Haas, 2004 Rabenstein, Hendricks,Leinweber, 2007

17 EM bird S. Hendricks, AWI

18 Longyearbyen April 29. May 7. NP 38 Station Nord April 26. April 27. Barrow March 28. April 03. ICEX CFS Alert (CryoVEx) April 11. April 18. Eureka April 20. April 24. Inuvik (Sachs Harbour) April 5. April 6. S. Hendricks, AWI Barrow Inuvik (Sachs Harbour) Resolute Bay Alert Eureka Station Nord Longyearbyen

19 Courtesy: Stefan Hendricks, AWI Sea Ice Thickness Observations (Lincoln Sea)

20 Greenland ice sheet is shrinking Greenland mass loss is increasing Loss: glacier discharge, melting Greenland gains mass in the interior, but loses more at the margins New (2011): Ice loss has doubled Lemke et al. (2007) IPCC AR4, Chapter 4

21 Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking Antarctic ice sheet loses mass mostly through increased glacier flow New (2011): Ice loss has doubled Lemke et al. (2007) IPCC AR4, Chapter 4

22 Antarctic Ice Sheet Ian Allison

23 Contribution of the cryosphere to sea level rise 1.2 ± 0.4 mm/year New data: 3.2 mm/year New data for land ice melt ~2.0 mm/year

24 winter Scenarios of future sea ice development summer ACIA Report Walsh & Jakobsson, 2004 IPCC, B2 Grand Challenge: Polar processes in summer

25 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Key Gaps 1. Understanding key processes and interactions in Polar Regions: stable boundary layers, polar clouds and precipitation, sea ice/ocean dynamics, hydrology, permafrost, ice sheet dynamics 2. Sustaining in-situ and satellite observations in Polar Regions, including reference observations 3. Products and services for Polar Regions

26 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Next steps 1. Embark on a decadal endeavour towards a Global Integrated Polar Prediction System as an IPY Legacy 2. Requirements: optimized observing systems improved model components improved assimilation techniques

27 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) GIPPS will need to be an end-toend operational prediction system Partners (Science and Operations) 1. WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP (CliC, SPARC,...), Alfred Wegener Institute, British Antarctic Survey, Byrd Polar Institute, Bjerknes Centre, ECMWF, NCEP, various national NWP centres

28 Polar Prediction System 1. Short-term prediction (hours to seasons) 2. Medium-term predictability (years to decades) 3. Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries) For all time-scales (except a few hours) the full coupled system (atm/land/ice/ocean) has to be addressed.

29 Sea Ice - Ocean Coupling melting freezing precipitation snow melt

30 Sea Ice - Ocean Coupling

31 Next Steps 1. WWRP/THORPEX PPP -> Implementation Plan 1 -> Project Office 2. WCRP PPI -> Implementation Plan 2 3. EC-PORS -> Implement GIPPS -> Joint International Polar Prediction Project -> Joint Implementation Plan -> Link through WG on Seasonal to Interannual Pred. -> Joint Project Office?

32 Thanks for your attention