1. Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/Project/etc)

Transcription

1 Polar Prediction Project 1. Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/Project/etc) The Polar Prediction Project has been initiated following the WMO's Executive Council meeting (EC-64) Resolution 17 (EC-64). The project shall serve growing demand for skilful and reliable predictions in polar regions and beyond. Major goals are to improve the understanding of the requirements for, and evaluate the benefits of, enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions and to establish and apply verification methods appropriate for polar regions. Concerns about the amplified responses to anthropogenic climate change have prominently enhanced public awareness of polar regions during recent years. In particular, growing economic and transportation activities in polar regions call for the sustained availability of reliable immediate information on weather and sea ice conditions to timely support decision-making. However, due to a lack in environmental observation coverage, forecasting products in the polar regions are still deficient. There is thus a pronounced need for a mutual effort to advance prediction information and services in polar regions. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is one of the highlight deliverables of the decade long Polar Prediction Project (PPP), which is one of three projects within the World Meteorological Organization s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The core phase of YOPP covers two years from mid 2017 to mid By coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, verification, user engagement and education activities, YOPP will enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond. YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to manage the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change. International and interdisciplinary collaboration within PPP and YOPP will be enhanced through the development of strong linkages with closely related initiatives and academia, research institutions and operational forecasting centres. PPP significantly promotes interactions and communication between research and stakeholders, and significantly fosters education and outreach. 2. Key highlights in the last year (1 page, describing the main activities and rationale) January: Overview paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) A paper summarizing the PPP's approach to advance polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales has been published in BAMS. March: Side meeting at ASSW2016 in Fairbanks, Alaska A side meeting for the Planning of the Year of Prediction was held at the Arctic Science Summit Week on March, 14 in Fairbanks, Alaska.

2 April: First Polar Prediction School at Abisko, Northern Sweden 29 polar early career scientist from 16 countries gathered for the first school on polar prediction organized by the Bolin Centre, CliC/WCRP, and PPP held from 5-15 April at the Abisko Field Station, Sweden. Abisko school activities are documented here. The meeting report is published in BAMS. April: First meeting of sub-committee PPP-SERA The PPP sub-committee on Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP) convened in Christchurch, New Zealand, April to discuss improvements in knowledge transfer between information-providers and stakeholders. The report of the outcomes is available here. May 2016: Steering Group meeting #7 hosted by NMEFC, Beijing, China The seventh PPP Steering Group meeting May was hosted by the National Marine Environment Forecasting Center (NMEFC) in Beijing, China. The meeting report is available here. June: Funding granted for APPLICTE and Blue Action proposals Both, the EU Horizon2020 projects APPLICATE (PI: Thomas Jung) and Blue Action (PI: Steffen M. Olsen) have been successful. Two of three funded EU projects will thus be coordinated by members of the PPP Steering Group. August: Online Request for YOPP Endorsement Launched Projects, programs and initiatives that plan to contribute to the aims of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) can request endorsement by YOPP now online at August: New version of YOPP Implementation Plan A revised version of the Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar Prediction has just been released through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is available here. September: YOPP Planning Meetings at ECMWF, Reading, UK The YOPP Planning Meetings on Arctic Observations and the YOPP Modelling Component were held 5-9 September at the European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, UK. During a joint session, modellers and observationalists discussed how to improve polar forecasting in a concerted effort. The report on the meetings can be downloaded here. Key deliverable: YOPP at the White House Arctic Science Ministerial On 28 September 2016, the U.S. Administration hosted the first-ever Arctic Science Ministerial meeting in Washington, D.C. High-level officials from 25 governments convened to discuss Arctic research priorities. In the resulting fact sheet, YOPP is listed as a major WMO activity aiming at achieving a significant improvement in environmental-prediction capabilities for the polar region and beyond.

3 October: First PPP Newsletter PolarPredictNews #01 The first issue of the newsletter PolarPredictNews has been distributed in order to involve the polar prediction community in the planning and to ensure that existing synergies are identified and exploited during the Year of Polar Prediction. 3. Links to WGs, Projects, International initiatives (1 page, what are the existing links or the ones we need to establish with WWRP WGs/projects, with WMO programmes, and with other no-wmo international initiatives) PPP will be strongly engaging with a number of WWRP-WG: There is discussion with the DAOS WG on contributions to the observing design (e.g. data denial experiments) shortly after the YOPP core phase. Furthermore, coupled data assimilation is a topic where collaboration is being established. There is scope for strengthening the collaboration with the Nowcasting and Mesoscale Forecasting WG, especially in the area of limited area ensemble forecating during the YOPP core phase. Collaboration with the PDEF WG is well established, with John Methven participating in the YOPP planning week held in early September Areas of collaboration include collaboration in NAWDEX and the YOPP core phase. Collaboration with the JWGFVR is well established. One of the main outcomes of this collaboration has been a joint report on forecast verification in polar regions. The leaders of the PPP SERA task team have recently contacted Linda Anderson Berry from WWRP SERA with the aim of establishing a strong link between both group. PPP and S2S have continued their collaboration. From the PPP community it is planned to use the S2S database for research purposes; at the same time there is ongoing discussion on the provision of additional PPP relvant parameters. Coordination is also envisaged with respect to the Year of Tropics Midlatitudes Interactions and Teleconnections. A strong link with WCRP-CliC is maintained. The Abisko Polar Prediction School, for example, was jointly organized by PPP and CliC and a joint workshop on Polar Prediction is planned for PPP works closely with the Association for Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) when it comes to developing the educational programme. Collaboration with YESS could be strengthened. The PPP-SG works closely with the planning team for the Arctic drifting station MOSAiC ( ). 4. Next year planning (1 page, describing the priorities for next year) YOPP Launch, Steering Group meeting,

4 Resulting from the YOPP Planning Workshops at ECMWF in September 2016, in addition to existing groups such as PPP-SERA and the outreach team, new YOPP task groups will form in order to strengthen the coordination of airborne observations, data management, and operational centres contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction. Further planned activities for the coming year are listed below: October 2016: Planning Meeting on the YOPP Data Component The planning meeting on the YOPP Data Component will be hosted from November by Met Norway in Oslo, Norway. February 2017: US CLIVAR Workshop 'Arctic Change & Its Influence on Mid- Latitude Climate & Weather' co-sponsoring by PPP The US CLIVAR workshop 'Arctic Change & Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate & Weather', which will be held from 1-3 February at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, will be co-sponsored by PPP. During the workshop possible links between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather that has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies will be discussed. More information is available here. February 2017: Steering Group meeting #8 hosted by NCEP, Maryland The eighth PPP Steering Group meeting will be kindly hosted from 27 February to 1 March, 2017 by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based in Maryland, United States. March 2017: Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 hosted by ICO The 4 th Polar Prediction Workshop scheduled for March 2017 will be jointly organised by the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), and the Sea Ice Prediction Network (ARCUS- SIPN) and the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). The focus will be on environmental prediction in the polar regions on a wide range of timescales, thereby helping to build a seamless polar prediction community. The workshop is hosted by the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany. March/April 2017: YOPP Planning Meeting at ASSW2017 A YOPP Planning Meeting is scheduled during the business section of the Arctic Science Summit Week from 31 March 2 April, 2017 in Praha, Czech Republic. April 2017: PPP-SERA meeting at ACCAP, Fairbanks, Alaska The third PPP-SERA meeting is planned to take place from 5-9 April, 2017 at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy. May 2017: Launch of Year of Polar Prediction During the WMO Executive Council meeting #69 (EC-69), the core phase of the Year of Polar Prediction will officially be launched. This event will further enhance visibility of YOPP in the academic community but also raise public awareness. June 2017: YOPP Southern Hemisphere planning meeting

5 The second YOPP Southern Hemisphere planning meeting will take place as part of the next Antarctic Meteorological Observation, Modeling & Forecasting Workshop (AMOMFW) that is hosted by NCAR, Boulder, Colorado. September 2017: YOPP Planning Week A week in September is envisaged to hold a meeting on the further planning of the Year of Polar Prediction. 5. Other elements considering the following items (1 page): Membership (members finishing their mandate) January 2016: Rick Thoman joins the Societal and Economic Research Applications committee for the Polar Prediction Project February 2016: Additional funding for outreach and knowledge transfer component within the International Coordination Office (ICO) secured (Winfried Hoke) May 2016: New Project Officer for the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (Kirstin Werner) June 2016: New WMO Consultant appointed for the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (Richard Swinbank) August 2016: Welcome to four new PPP Steering Group Members (Barbara Casati, Daniela Liggett, Steffen M. Olsen, Jackie Dawson). At the same time Brian Mills and Pertti Nurmi stepped down. Fund raising (call for proposal, opportunity for research funding) AWI in-kind contribution to PPP Trust Fund: International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction hosted by Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany. Three Horizon2020 projects will contribute to YOPP. Meeting plan table (table summarizing next year meetings) Arctic Frontiers January Tromsoe, Norway American Meteorological January Seattle, WA, USA Society, 97 th Annual Meeting US CLIVAR Workshop: 1-3 February Washington DC, USA Arctic Change & Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate & Weather International Symposium on February Wellington, Zew Zealand the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate PPP Steering Group Meeting #8 27 February-1 March Maryland, USA

6 4 th Polar Prediction Workshop March Bremerhaven, Germany Arctic Science Summit Week 31 March-7 April Prague, Czech Republic PPP-SERA Meeting #3 5-9 April Fairbanks, AK, USA EGU April Vienna, Austria WMO Executive Council May Geneva, Switzerland Meeting #69 (incl. YOPP Launch) 9 th International Congress of 8-12 June Umea, Sweden Arctic Social Sciences AMOMFW & YOPP-SH June Boulder, Colorado, USA steering group meetings, co-sponsored meetings but also relevant meetings you think a WG/project member should attend) The next PPP Steering Group meeting #8 is scheduled for 27 February to 1 March, 2017 hosted by NCEP, Maryland, United States. It will be kindly hosted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based in Maryland, United States.