Australian Considerations for the Year of Polar Prediction

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Benedict Willis
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1 Australian Considerations for the Year of Polar Prediction Mawson (1954) Davis (1957) Macquarie Is. (1948) Casey (1969) Photos by Christopher Wilkins (AAD)

2 Observations Surface

3 Observations upper air (GUAN) 370 stations N of 40N 26 stations S of 40S Ozonesonde released at Davis (Photo: M. Crowe)

4 VHF Windprofiler on GTS A319 equipped with AMDAR

5 Observations Satellite ATOVS, IASI & CrIS sounders Davis x-band Casey X-Band Online weather geostationary images (FY2D, MTSAT and GOES-15)

6 YOPP

7 Currently planned or underway R&D division is involved in PPP related projects such as: the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, aerosol transport Experimental (SOCRATES), the Macquarie Island Cloud and radiation Experiment (MICRE), ARM instruments; and the Antarctic Cloud and Radiation Experiment (ACRE ARM instruments: planned at Davis)

8 Currently underway Evaluation of how weather services support government objectives in Antarctica via risk matrix (Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA) aspect of the YOPP) with WMO EC-PHORS; Phil Reid (member of the PPP steering committee) and is supervising two projects on: ACCESS S sea ice evaluation (Laura Davies postdoc); and Assessment/verification of ACCESS G in high latitudes with consideration for improved polar physics (Ben Schroeter, PhD)

9 Under consideration Improve the Macca and Davis upper air programs from GUAN to GRUAN (ie reference site ); Install C&V sensors at all 4 stations (Vaisala CL31 or CL51 ceilometers (saving raw, vertically resolved backscatter ratio profiles for cloud-detection analysis, look at aerosols and the structure of clouds) Measure up and downwelling radiation at Davis to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards ; Evaluate forecast performance at the stations and Wilkins Aerodrome;

10 Under Consideration extra sonde deployments, say up to 4/day, during the intensive measurement campaigns (need to plan now for budget staffing and consumubles, ozonesondes?); and radiosonde campaigns from the RSV Aurora Australis and/or the RV Investigator during the intensive measurement campaigns (is this covered by MARCUS)?. Ozonesondes.

11 Thank you Thank You Scott Carpentier

12 A couple of tings to say about the: Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Taken from: Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February

13 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System Global: International effort and poles have global influences Integrated: Interconnection between systems (weather, climate, biological chemical etc) and integrated (research, observations and services) Polar prediction will be central Three time scales GIPPS Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal) Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal) Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries)

14 Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate Improved models Benefits Improved data assimilation systems Optimized observing system Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term planning)

15 Thank you

16 Talk outline R&D division is involved in PPP related projects such as: the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, aerosol transport Experimental (SOCRATES), the Macquarie Island Cloud and radiation Experiment (MICRE); and the Antarctic Cloud and Radiation Experiment (ACRE planned at Davis). Scott Carpentier is planning to contribute to the Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA) aspect of the YOPP. Phil Reid is a member of the PPP steering committee and is supervising two projects on: ACCESS S sea ice evaluation (Laura Davies); and Assessment/verification of ACCESS G in high latitudes with consideration for improved polar physics (Ben Schroeter)

17 we consider undertaking some permanent improvements to our Antarctic obs program and align their installation with PPP timelines, such as: Improve the Macca and Davis upper air programs from GUAN to GRUAN (ie reference site see attached ); Install C&V sensors at all 4 stations (improves aviation ops (soon to be recommended by the Met Authority audit of Antarctic aviation services),

18 as well as temporarily: commit extra sonde deployments, say up to 4/day, during the intensive measurement campaigns (could be for a 2 month period but has yet to firmed up); and consider radiosonde campaigns from the RSV Aurora Australis and/or the RV Investigator during the intensive measurement campaigns.

19 WMO GIPPS

20 The reasons for engaging Ceilometers. The most useful data for us would be if the raw, vertically resolved backscatter ratio profiles could be saved. We would then perform our own cloud-detection analysis and also could look at aerosols and the structure of the clouds, based on the backscatter profiles. Radiometers: it could be appropriate for Macquarie and or e.g. Davis to become a GRUAN site one day? Having the range of ozonesonde launches, radiometers, ceilometer as well as the standard radiosondes would all be beneficial.

21 YOPP

22 By YOPP An aspiration for ongoing Observations? 1. Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), 2. Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), 3. Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). 4. Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) and reference (GRUAN), 5. Global Climate Observing Network (GCOS); and 6. Polar Prediction Project (PPP): ACCESS-P 7. Satellite soundings into GTS (IASI, CRIS and ATOVS) 8. Sea Ice charting capabilities?

23 Planned Observations on site projects Antarctic Clouds and Radiation Experiment (ACRE) : one year of continuous cloud, aerosol, and precipitation measurements at Macquarie Island (March 2016-March 2017) and at Davis station (2018). (BoM 95GHzCloud radar, AAD cloud and aerosol backscatter lidar and Uni of Canterbury ceilometer) Macquarie Island Clouds and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) deploy a suite of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation in-situ measurements for two years at Macquarie Island (March March 2018). (US DOE ARM, BoM and AAD) )

24 Modelling Seasonal Ice prediction (POAMA about to be rebranded) and SIPN south NWP modelling ACCESS-Polar

25 Research into use and value of forecasts How do we do value the forecast? Forecast validation? Valuing the present international investment/return on investment could help develop a more sustainable model for Antarctic weather service delivery (less multiplication of effort through more cooperation.

26 Instrument Relevant datasets Remarks Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (unshaded) Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (shaded) Kipp & Zonen CHP1 Pyrheliometer Kipp & Zonen CGR4 Pyrgeometer (shaded) Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (shaded) Kipp & Zonen CGR4 Pyrgeometer (shaded) Downwelling shortwave ( μm) Diffuse shortwave ( μm) Direct normal shortwave ( μm) Downwelling longwave (4.0-50μm) Upwelling shortwave ( μm) Upwelling longwave (4.0-50μm) Global hemispheric irradiance Diffuse hemispheric irradiance Solar tracking, direct normal irradiance Hemispheric irradiance Shortwave hemispheric irradiance Longwave hemispheric irradiance

27 Community engagement

28 Alignment with other planned activities

29 Development and implementation plan

30 Development and implementation plan

31 Fundraising and resource mobilisation

32 Intensive observing periods and satellite snapshot

33 Research into use and value of forecasts

34 Model developments and operational implementation

35 Observations Satellite Davis L-Band Casey L/X-Band Online weather geostationary images (FY2D, MTSAT and GOES-15)

Measurements are infrequent in this region due to difficulty in making both ship- and air-based measurements Natural pristine region far removed from

Measurements are infrequent in this region due to difficulty in making both ship- and air-based measurements Natural pristine region far removed from PLANNED OBSERVATIONAL CAMPAIGNS OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEANS FOR DETERMINING THE ROLES OF CLOUDS, AEROSOLS AND RADIATION IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM: SOCRATES, MARCUS & MICRE G. McFarquhar, U. Illinois C. Bretherton,