Seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System (SDPFS)

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1 WMO Seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System (SDPFS) Jan Daňhelka WMO; Commission for Hydrology

2 Introduction GDPFS intended span over hydrology domain is a new challange for hydrological community Modelling of hydrological processess make sense on the basin scale There are many issues that justify a need for modelling at national or even sub-national scale Reservoir operation Levees breaches Inundation dynamic Etc. There is also a great need for educated, informed interpretation of model outputs. There are often legal arrangements concerning the flood forecasting in many countries established. Role of NHSs is crucial Chy-15 2

3 GDPFS The main purpose of the Global Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (GDPFS) shall be to prepare and make available to Members in the most cost-effective way meteorological analyses and forecast products. The design, functions, organizational structure and operations of the GDPFS shall be in accordance with Members' needs and their ability to contribute to and benefit from the system. GDPFS enables National Meteorological Services to access data and products that were beyond their capacities to develop by themselves (e.g. numerical weather forecasts with global coverage, especially ensemble medium-range weather forecast, long-term forecast etc.) due to the need for access to data globally, the need for advanced computational power, etc. Chy-15 3

4 GDPFS General description (as provided by the GDPFS Manual) The GDPFS shall be the world-wide network of operational centres operated by WMO Members. Its purpose shall be to make operationally available among WMO Members and relevant operational organizations, defined products and services for applications related to weather, climate, water and environment. The GDPFS shall enable scientific and technological advances made in meteorology and related fields to be accessible and exploitable by WMO Members. The activities, organizational structure and operations of the GDPFS shall be systematically designed in accordance with Members needs and their ability to contribute to, and benefit from, the system in an efficient manner and minimizing duplication. Chy-15 4

5 GDPFS Chy-15 5

6 GDPFS Chy-15 6

7 Drivers for future development Users needs and demands: Seamless products and services Impact based information and services Research and technological development Fully coupled, high resolution, global coverage models New players on the field IBM, Panasonic, Google, mobile technologies Chy-15 7

8 WMO Congress 17 (2015): Resolution 11 (CG-17) Towards a Future Enhanced Integrated and Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System Decides to initiate a process for the gradual establishment of a future enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System; Requests the technical commissions to include this activity in their work programmes, in order to fully accommodate the crossprogramme nature of the integration initiative; Chy-15 8

9 WMO Executive Council (2016): Decision 8.1 (EC-68) Implementation of the Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System Seamless span over several dimensions: time, disciplines, nonweather related elements Vision for the Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System Established the Steering Group Demand for development of Implementation plan Chy-15 9

10 WMO Steering group Meeting in November 2016 GDPFS Imperative Draft content of Implementation plan CBS-16 New manual on GDPFS Chy-15 10

11 GDPFS Manual Through the GDPFS, Members shall provide and have access to meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic and climatological information supporting a range of operational activities. three-tier system of activities: General purpose activities: Global NWP, LAM NWP, Global ensemble NWP, LAM ensemble, Global LRP, Numerical ocean wave prediction, Storm surge prediction, Global numerical ocean prediction, Nowcasting Chy-15 11

12 GDPFS Manual Specialized activities: Regional severe weather forecasting, Regional climate prediction and monitoring, Coordination of multi-model ensemble prediction for long-range forecasts, Coordination of near-term climate prediction, Tropical cyclone forecasting, including marine-related hazards, Volcanic contaminants, Marine meteorological services, Marine, nuclear and Non-nuclear environmental emergency, Atmospheric sand and dust storm forecasts Chy-15 12

13 GDPFS Manual Non real-time coordination activities: Coordination of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) verification Coordination of ensemble prediction system (EPS) verification Coordination of long-range forecast (LRF) verification Coordination of wave forecast verification Coordination of tropical cyclone forecast verification Coordination of observation monitoring Chy-15 13

14 GDPFS Manual The GDPFS shall be organized as a three-level system of: World Meteorological Centres (WMCs), Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and National Meteorological Centres (NMCs), which carry out GDPFS functions at the global, regional and national levels, respectively. These Centres are referred as GDPFS Centres. Chy-15 14

15 GDPFS Manual The following procedure is applied for the incorporation of new types of GDPFS centres into this Manual: Relevant technical commission or programme expert team to develop the criteria/functions for new type of centres, including the list of mandatory products to be made available in the context of the GDPFS; The criteria/functions for new type of centres to be endorsed by the relevant technical commission management group or programme steering committee, and submitted to CBS through its president; Following the request by the president of CBS, the relevant CBS/OPAG-DPFS expert team to review the proposed criteria/functions for new type of centres; Once endorsed by the relevant CBS/OPAG-DPFS expert team, the Commission recommend to EC/Cg the approval of the proposed criteria/functions for new type of centres; Chy-15 15

16 GDPFS Manual Centres conducting.. function shall: Produce..what operational products; Make available on the WIS a range of these products. (list of products is further specified in the appendix); Make verification statistics available according to the standard defined in Appendix; Make available on a website up-to-date information on the characteristics of its production system. The minimum information to be provided is given in Appendix. Chy-15 16

17 GDPFS Manual To be proposed by: To be recommended by: To be decided by: To be recommended by: To be decided by: To be monitored by: To be reported to: RESPONSIBILITY CHANGES TO ACTIVITY SPECIFICATION CHy/AWG CHy EC/Congress CENTRES DESIGNATION CHy EC/Congress COMPLIANCE CHy/AWG CHy bodies in charge of preparing specification updates, approving them, and deciding to update the Manual accordingly bodies responsible for approving the designation of a GDPFS centre for the activity under consideration and for deciding accordingly bodies in charge of ensuring that the designated GDPFS centres remain compliant with the activity specification. Chy-15 17

18 Pre-session discussion summary 1) Do you agree to develop a structure of hydrological centres within the GPDFS manual, with defined functions, competencies, requirements and procedures for designation (analogous to those for meteorology within the Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System Volume I Global Aspects, WMO-No. 485)? 2) Should we re-define forecasting ranges in hydrology (for instance, mandate the AWG to develop a new version to be included in Vol. III of Technical Regulations) to be consistent with the definitions of meteorological forecasting ranges provided in Appendix I-4 of WMO- No. 485? 3) Would you agree to a CHy-15 Resolution that will mandate the President of CHy, or designated member(s) of the Advisory Working Group to further liaise and cooperate with other WMO bodies in developing the new GDPFS manual, in order to introduce hydrological aspects to the GDPFS? Chy-15 18

19 Pre-session discussion summary Ad 3) General agreement (reflected in Draft Resolution on Contribution of CHy to SDPFS) Ad 1) Partial agreement. New version of the manual needs to be considered. Ad 2) some agreed to consider redefinition of short term and medium term forecast range, some disagreed or did not consider this to be an issue at all. Chy-15 19

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21 Conclusion Draft Resolution 4.2(1)/1 Decides to actively contribute to the development and implementation of a Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System and to include these activities accordingly in its future workplan and activities; Chy-15 21

22 Conclusion Requests the president of CHy or delegated AWG members: To ensure that all hydrological aspects and specifics and in particular the needs and concerns of NHSs are properly reflected in the development of the new Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System; To consider reviewing the definitions of forecasting ranges in hydrology included in the Technical Regulations: Vol. III Hydrology, and recommend to the Executive Council the necessary modifications to be more consistent with those used in meteorology, but retaining differences and including other definitions appropriate for hydrology; To develop a proposal of a comprehensive structure for hydrology within the new Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System that would encompasses hydrological data, analysis and forecasting and could include new entities such as World, Regional, and National Hydrological Centres, with clearly defined roles and responsibilities; Chy-15 22

23 Conclusion Requests the president of CHy or delegated AWG members: To develop documentation describing the procedures for the designation and the mandatory functions of new centers, taking into account the principle that World and Regional Centres should respect the roles and responsibilities of NMHSs in the delivery of flood forecasting and warning services; To interact with various global and regional forecasting initiatives making them aware of this ongoing process, in particular item (4) above; To report on progress of the Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System implementation to CHy-16; Chy-15 23

24 Thank you for your attention Jan Danhelka Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Na Sabatce 2050/ Praha CZ Chy-15 24