Pan-Arctic permafrost thermal conditions: Where does the Yamal Peninsula fit?

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1 Pan-Arctic permafrost thermal conditions: Where does the Yamal Peninsula fit? V. Romanovsky, A. Kholodov and S. Marchenko University of Alaska Fairbanks

3 1600

4 The Mammoth Steppe Concept: R. D. Guthrie, 1990

5 The Mammoth Steppe Concept: R. D. Guthrie, 1990

6 Photo by M. Grigoriev

7 Photo by M. Grigoriev

10 Examples for Arctic landscapes affected by massive permafrost degradation (thermokarst)

11 Methane emission Peat Massive ice wedge Methane production Thaw bulb Katey Walter, 2007 Dead plant & animal Permafrost remains Permafrost

12 CO 2 and CH 4 in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica glacial interglacial present 400,000 Time years ago

14 Contemporary Permafrost

15 The changes in mean annual air temperature from 1950 to 1998 The changes in mean annual air temperature from 1986 to 2006 (J. Hansen)

16 Topics to be covered: Measuring Permafrost Thermal Regime Modeling Permafrost Thermal Regime Permafrost in Climate Models

20 Gulkana -0.9 Temperature ( C) Healy Birch Lake Tom Osterkamp 11/ Year Temperatures at the 20 m depth in discontinuous permafrost in Interior Alaska.

22 Gakona1

23 Gakona1

24 High unfrozen water content HAARP1 Unfrozen Water, 0.35 and 0.58 m Winter 0.5 Gakona Volumetric Liquid Water Temperature (T) 0.35 m 0.58 m Silt 0.58 m Clay

25 Gakona1 5.0 m Temp 1 Temp 2 Temp 3 Water 1 Water 2 Water 3-4 8/25/2004 9/25/ /25/ /25/ /25/2004 1/25/2005 2/25/2005 3/25/2005 4/25/2005 5/25/2005 6/25/2005 7/25/2005 8/25/2005 0

26 TSA_5 Gakona

30 Data from N. Oberman, MIREKO, Russia

31 West Siberia, Urengoi Field

32 West Siberia, Nadym Field

33 European Russia, Cape Bolvansky

34 European Russia, Cape Bolvansky

35 West Siberia, Urengoi Field

36 West Siberia, Urengoi Field

37 East Siberia, Yakutsk

38 Temperature, C Norman Wells 12 m Wrigley 12 m Fort Simpson 10 m Northern Alberta 10 m Updated by S. Smith from (S. Smith et al., 2005) -1.8

39 Two Approaches in Permafrost Dynamics Modeling : 1. Site-specific permafrost temperature reanalysis 2. Specially-distributed permafrost modeling

40 Permafrost Temperature Reanalysis A numerical model calibration for a specific site using data on soils temperature and physical properties and the data from the closest meteorological station Check the quality of calibration using soil temperature data not involved in calibration Methodology: Long-term meteorological and other input data preparation, choosing scenarios of the past and future climatic changes Numerical simulations of the geothermal field dynamics Analysis of results and their geophysical and ecological interpretation

41 TEMPERATURE ( C) Permafrost Temperature Reanalysis 20 BARROW, TEMPERATURE ( C) -40 Air temperature Calculated ground surface temperature Measured ground surface temperature Measured ground surface temperature TIME (days from ) 10 BARROW, T aver = C T aver = C Air Temperatures Measured at 1 cm Calculated at 1 cm 4/15/1998 7/15/ /15/1998 1/15/1999 4/15/1999 7/15/1999 TIME (days)

42 Future Changes in Climate and Permafrost

44 GIPL-2.0

48 2000

49 2050

50 2100

51 ACCO-Net Circum-Arctic Coastal Key Sites Jerry Brown, Volker Rachold and the ACD Group Arctic Science Summit Week Reykjavik, Island April 2004

52 12500 years before present bed rock thermokarst lake cryopeg gas hydrates permafrost ice complex sea ice massive ice sea level -90 m Schematic models of Coastal and Submarine Permafrost under different climatic conditions (after N. Romanovskii) gas PRESENT thermokarst -5 C lake -10 C sea level 0 m greenhouse gas emission CH 4 gas hydrates talik bed rock permafrost gas gas

53 Thank you very much!

55 Conclusions Permafrost temperature needs to be continuously monitored Permafrost modeling is an important tool in Global Change research Present-day Global and Regional Climate Models not adequately represent permafrost dynamics A proper permafrost representation in these models is especially important at the time of permafrost degradation

Fate of permafrost in Denali National Park and Preserve - A modeling investigation

Photo credit: Jacob W Frank Fate of permafrost in Denali National Park and Preserve - A modeling investigation Santosh K Panda, Sergey S Marchenko, Vladimir E Romanovsky Permafrost Laboratory, Geophysical