Recent studies and plans on subjects related to NEESPI at JAMSTEC and other Japanese plans

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CYCLE C SNOW COVER P E R C http://www.jamstec.go.

1 Recent studies and plans on subjects related to NEESPI at JAMSTEC and other Japanese plans Tetsuo Ohata Program Director IORGC/JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan REGIONAL WATER CYCLE C SNOW COVER P E R C Affected by STRUCTURE ENERGY CONDITIONS S PERMAFROST NEESPI Regional Science Team Meeting, 2-6 June, 2008, Helsinki, Finland

2 Content 1NESSPI related studies at JAMSTEC (1) Studies on hydrological conditions and cycles in Northern Eurasia Especially, on changes in Eastern Siberia. <JAMSTEC, IORGC, Water Cycle Group> (2) Arctic Ocean and loss of sea ice. <JAMSTEC, IORGC, Arctic Ocean Group> (3) Changes in precipitation pattern in Siberia. <JAMSTEC, FRCGC, Water Cycle Group> 2. New Programs and Projects in Japan (starting 2008, 2009) JAMSTEC, Multi-dicsiplinary Arctic Studies, Human-Nature Dimension

3 Hydrological Cycle Studies in Northern Eurasia by IORGC/JAMSTEC Objectives (1) To reveal and understand the characteristics of hydro-meteorological processes which regulate climate formation and variation in the eastern part of Eurasia. (2)Especially the global warming influence and feedback of in Northern Eurasia, through largescale intensive process studies and long-term monitoring. (3)Contribute to the climate modeling and prediction.

4 Observation Network Global warming influence, feedbacksnow/ice and vegetation change, Arctic flowing large rivers Monsoon circulation Atmosphere/land/ocean interactionel Nino

5 1. Research themes of hydrological Cycle in Northern Eurasia Theme2 REGIONAL WATER CYCLE C C SNOW COVER P Theme 3 Glacier E R Affected by STRUCTURE ENERGY CONDITIONS S PERMAFROST Global warming and feedback Theme 4 Theme 1

6 Measurement started for deep ground temperature at Tiksi, Russia Another site in Mongolia 60m drilling at Tiksi Sept.,, nd station following the Northern Mongolia one.

Massif where area loss is > 40 K L M N Result: Glacier Area decreased 31% in about 50 years.

7 Glacier Study B:Turgen Distribution of glaciers in the Altai Mountains, Mongolia district F C: Kharkhiraa H O I D: Tsambagarav Method: Topographical map (1950) and Satellite data (2000), GIS Massif where area loss is > 40 K L M N Result: Glacier Area decreased 31% in about 50 years. However, the range is Km A: Tavan Bogd, B: Turgen, C: Kharkhiraa, D: Tsambagarav <Yabuki, Kadota and Konya>

In-situ study: Potanin Glacier, Tavanbogd Massif June-September, 2007) IPY

2003-2006, Research glacierpotanin GlacierPhoto from left bank Whole length, 8km

8 In-situ study: Potanin Glacier, Tavanbogd Massif June-September, 2007) IPY Study, Preliminary obs , Research glacierpotanin GlacierPhoto from left bank Whole length, 8km On the glacier, surface lowering was measured in addition to the basic heat balance components (air temp., humidity, wind, air pressure, shortwave/longwave radiationoutside station was set to obtain general condtion on ground surfaceright, 3010m.a.s.l. Surface lowering of glaciers June 27 to Sept 7, 2007

9 Stable isotope application study, Stable isotope in GCM <by Kurita> GNIP(Global Network of Isotope in Precipitation) vs MIROC3.2 (H 18 2 O) Matsiro :GNIP stations DJF JJA Latitude [N] Latitude [N]

Development of land hydrological Model Surface data Satellite Topograph y Surface condition Improved using IORGC data and study Input Met Veg.

(Yamazaki) TargetExplaining the long-term increase and variation in Arctic draining large-rivers. ET Runoff Soil Moisture Active Layer Snow cover Etc.

10 Development of land hydrological Model Surface data Satellite Topograph y Surface condition Improved using IORGC data and study Input Met Veg. Soil Large drainage hydrological characteristics Collaboration with DIAS Project Simulation using land hydrological modelpark submitted Land scheme 2LM (Yamazaki) TargetExplaining the long-term increase and variation in Arctic draining large-rivers. ET Runoff Soil Moisture Active Layer Snow cover Etc. Vegetation map River channel structure Flood () Runoff model River discharge Calibration data Collected data Less at central Lena and arctic and more at southern Lena and region facing Okhotsk Sea.

11 Result 3 Temporal variation of thawed depth and soil moisture Thawed depth Soil moisture 03m layer

Result 2Relation between snow-free period and evapotranspiration 19862004

period and Evapotransipiration correlateswarming increases

12 Result 2Relation between snow-free period and evapotranspiration Whole Lena basin Evapotranspiration mm yr -1 Snow-free days days Snow-free period and Evapotransipiration correlateswarming increases evapotranspiration? Snow-free period Increase in southern part Decrease in mountain/northern part

13 2. Decrease of Arctic Sea Ice

14 Computer Prediction Observation Marika Holland 2007

15 Ratio of area covered by sea ice Shimada et al. (2006) Water temperature below the sea ice

High pressure above ArcticLow pressure system above Siberia Strong wind from Arctic Ocean to Atlantic Ocean Sea ice loss Space at coastal area of Siberia Condition easy to loose

17 High pressure above ArcticLow pressure system above Siberia Strong wind from Arctic Ocean to Atlantic Ocean Sea ice loss Space at coastal area of Siberia Condition easy to loose ice from this area Year with high ice loss has typical pressure condition H H Sea ice does not receive friction from land L L Inoue & Kikuchi, 2007 Melt ice and moves ice, easily

18 Changes in Precipitation pattern over Siberia <Study by Fukutomi (FRCGC)> (1) 1970s2000 summer West: Ob to Yenisei, East: Lena West high East low West low (2) Recent several years West high East high East high Sea-saw variation Shift of hydrological cycle in high latitudes

19 Linkage of phenomena Warmer Arctic ocean Arctic Atmosphere Warming Sea ice development weak Sea ice loss from Arctic Ocean Low pressure system from Siberia to east Arctic, High pressure system above western Arctic Ocean? Moist soil condition, enlarged lakes, flooding, high runoff (Siberia at least east) High precipitation more snow in Siberia, Deeper active layer

20 Planned studies 1 JAMSTEC will start new 5 year program ( Programs of IORGC and FRCGC will be re-organized into 6 to 7 Programs One of the Program is planned to be Arctic/Asia Cryopshere Change Program (tentative) Main Questions: How Is the cryopshere system changing Arctic and Asia. Cryosphere System: Land, Ocean and Atmosphere What are the inter-relation between Changes What effect will they have to globally and to eastern Asia Strong collaboration with IARC (Fairbanks, USA) and WCRP/CliC

21 Planned studies 2. New Arctic Region Research Plan Arctic Warming Past PresentFuture Takashi Yamanouchi (National Institute for Polar Research, Tokyo) Tetsuo Ohata (IORGC/JAMSTEC, Yokosuka) Jinro Ukita (Niigata University, Niigata) 20 Organization in Japan will cooperate.

22 Warming in the first halh of 20th Centuryー Only in the Arctic Obs. AARI data, Alekseev et al. (1999) + α Modelled, GHGs only Modelled, GHGs+sulfate aerosols Annual mean SAT anomalies ( ), data from Jones et al. (2003), Serreze and Francis (2006) The warming in the first half of 20th Century is localized in the high latitude However, the model can not explain the difference. Modelled control run, variability Johannessen et al. (2004)

23 Process and main observation sites Material transport Heat and water transport Other than Water and Energy Project includes Aerosols, GHG, cloud and precipitation and vegetation

24 Arctic Region Reanalysis Intensified-Synchronized Observation2010/11 Integrated data-set (Data assimilation) Data assimilation Sample 500 hpa level, distribution of standard deviation of corrected values ECMWF ReanalysisT799L91 (25 km, 91 level) Data expansion, Satellite data application Arctic Regional Model Reanalysis ECMWF Newsletter, 112 (2007)

25 Components of the Project Yamanouchi, T. Shiobara, Ohata, T. Takahashi, S.) Permafrost and active layer processes Kanda, H. Enomoto, T.) AO: Marine chemistry, middle atmosphere, human aspects, disaster

26 Planned studies 3. Global Warming and the Human-Nature dimension in Siberia -The social adaptation to the changes of the terrestrial ecosystem with an emphasis on the water environment -Project leader: Gen INOUE (Nagoya Univ.; Research Institute of Humanity and Nature, Kyoto) -Project period: (already started 2008) -Home page: html

27 At the end, one more End

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