International Arctic Research Center

Transcription

1 International Arctic Research Center

2 IARC Project Reducing Uncertainty in Arctic Climate Change Prediction Distinguishing Natural and Anthropogenic Changes Testing Carbon Cycle Hydrologic Cycle Integration AMONG Themes Second Stage Fate of Sea Ice in the Arctic Ocean Eddy Carmack Jia Wang Global effect of Warming in the Arctic S. Manabe V. Alexeev Role of Freshwater/Permafrost in the Arctic-global Connection L. Hinzman X. Zhang Terrestrial Carbon Budget D. McGuire Integration WITHIN Each Theme First Stage Arctic Ocean Models and Observations Proshutisky Polyakov Hibler Arctic Atmosphere: Feedbacks, Radiation, Weather Analysis Alexeev Vavrus Permafrost/ Frozen Soil Models and Observations Molders Romanovsky Arctic Biota/ Vegetation (Ecosystem Models) McGuire Stieglitz

3 A = atmospheric boundary fluxes B = atmospheric dynamics C = land-surface atmosphere exchanges (with vegetation and permafrost dynamics) D = discharge through well-defined flow networks (with groundwater and river corridor flow) E = runoff from poorly organized lowland flow systems F = sea ice mass balance and dynamics G = estuarine controls on terrestrial/shelf interactions H = changes in glacial mass balance and associated runoff I = direct groundwater discharge to ocean J = Arctic Ocean dynamics and deep water formation K = biological dynamics and oceanic food chains The arctic water and energy cycles are inextricably connected to all physical, biological and chemical processes occurring in the biosphere, atmosphere, and cryosphere.

4 Some highlights of past year: Release of Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report IPCC models: archive and diagnosis for Arctic (with V. Kattsov, Russia) International Polar Year proposal for coordinated Arctic Ocean measurement program building upon NABOS/CABOS Earth Simulator collaboration undertaken, with focus on ocean module Results on recent Arctic change (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice) synthesis of low-frequency variability, greenhouse detection

5 Potential IPY Ocean Observing System (NABOS/CABOS moorings: open circles)

6 Arctic atmosphere projects Feedbacks affecting polar amplification (V. Alexeev, S. Vavrus, P. Langen, C. Murray) Enhancement of Arctic climate simulations -- strategies for high-resolution modeling (V. Alexeev, R. Muna, Ø. Byrkedal) Extreme weather in a changing Arctic climate (J. Walsh, National Weather Service, I. Shapiro)

7 1998 total ICE No ICE David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

8 Permafrost projects In-situ measurements (V. Romanovsky) Spatially distributed datasets (T. Zhang, NSIDC) Site-specific 1-d modeling (V. Romanovsky) Spatially-distributed modeling (N. Molders) Mission: Frozen soil module for global models

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11 Arctic biota/vegetation and snow cover Arctic ecosystem modeling (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) Incorporation of topographic detail slopes, hilltops via TOPMODEL Focus on enhancements of simulated snow cover and soil moisture in Arctic

12 Important interactions of arctic ecosystems that have the potential to influence the global climate system Interactions include water and energy exchange, particularly as influenced by vegetation albedo, sea surface albedo influenced by phytoplankton activity, and the exchange of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) by the Arctic Ocean. These interactions also include the carbon cycle of arctic ecosystems, which primarily involve the biologically mediated exchange of CO2 and CH4 with the atmosphere of both Arctic Land and Ocean Ecosystems. These exchanges are influenced by the exchange of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) between the arctic land mass and the Arctic Ocean as well as the exchange of these constituents between the Arctic Ocean and adjacent water masses.

13 Ocean Ecosystem Modeling: Key activities Marine ecosystem model with lower trophic levels being tested for Barrow region Field measurements from (growth rates, nutrients) are guiding model parameters, initialization Coupled Ice-Ocean Model (CIOM) for Bering Sea developed for inclusion of biogeochemical component

14 The Arctic Food Web International North Water Polynya Study (and C. Deal) Linkages between the nine biological compartments in the IARC PhEcoM (Physical- Ecosystem Model) by Wang et al. (2003), Jin et al. (2006 a & b), and Deal et al. (2006).

15 Mechanisms by which marine algae may influence sulphate aerosol concentrations and the albedo of clouds, possibly feeding back to stabilize climate. Sulfate aerosol Cloud Albedo Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) Radiation budget Global temperature - SO 2 DMS Climate Feedbacks + or -? DMS + or -? phytoplankton abundance and speciation? Marine ecology (From Andreae, 1990, after Charlson et al., 1987)

16 Arctic Ocean Models and Observations: Key activities Evaluation of Earth Simulator model simulations of Arctic Ocean and subpolar seas Anomalous warm water intrusions tracked in Arctic Ocean, providing insight into low-frequency variability of Arctic Ocean Embedded ice-ocean-tide model developed for evaluation of roles of tidal and inertial forcing in sea ice mass budget and air-sea heat exchange

17 Application of variational data assimilation technique for the study of the Bering Sea: Climatological studies and hindcast and forecast of local circulation. Hindcast and forecast in the Bering Sea through the assimilation of the SSH data. Blue arrows model results. Black arrows surface drifters velocities.

18 Propagation of warm Atlantic Water temperature anomalies into the Arctic Ocean in the 1970s and 1990s. The pathways of AW are shown by red arrows. Adapted from Polyakov et al., 2004.

19 New water temperature anomaly originating in the North Atlantic entered the central Arctic Ocean Observational data from NABOS mooring deployed at the continental slope of the Laptev Sea ( , 04, top panel). From Polyakov et al., 2005 Recent and long-term changes in the Arctic/North Atlantic oceans

20 Arctic Atmosphere, Weather and Climate Variability: Key activities Increase of Arctic cyclone activity documented Dipole mode (2 nd EOF) of atmospheric variability related to oceanic exchanges between Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic subpolar seas Data on coastal wind events synthesized for application to coastal flooding/erosion studies

21 Increase of Arctic cyclone activity (X. Zhang)

22 Terrestrial Ecosystem Models and Observations: Key activities Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) mapping in terrestrial ecosystems using remote sensing tools Monitoring of carbon fluxes (CO 2, CH 4 ) by tower and chamber measurements in Alaska Assessment of wildfire effects: soot transport, carbon cycle impacts of fire in Alaska

23 NCE [CO 2 ] and [O 3 ] and N Deposition NPP R H Fire Emissions Climate (Temperature, Precipitation) Fire regime (Severity, History) TEM Carbon Pools Simulation of the effects of changes in [CO 2 ], [O 3 ], N deposition, Climate, and Disturbance by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)

24 Historical Fire Data Preparation Alaska Fire Service database: Alberta (Polygon): Saskatchewan (Polygon): Canada LFDB (Point): Canada LFDB (Polygon): AVHRR burn areas derived by Hyer (2004): Fire data was cohortized meaning that within each 0.5 degree grid cell, we created non-spatial units (cohorts) that take into account overlapping fire pixels from year to year Purpose: Each cohort that occurs within a 0.5 degree grid cell has a unique fire history

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