The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate
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1 The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate David Lawrence 1 Andrew Slater 2 1 NCAR / CGD Boulder, CO 2 NSIDC / CIRES Boulder, CO
2 Snow vs T air influence on T soil trends There is a perception that climatic warming was the [principal] cause of 20 th century warming and thawing of permafrost While pertinent data are sparse, published results do not support this viewpoint [Zhang et al., 2001; Osterkamp, 2007]. This brief report reviews the warming of permafrost in Alaska and shows that snow cover has played a significant role in it. Osterkamp, 2007
3 Snow influence on soil temperature Depends on: T ground - T air Thickness Duration of snow season Snow onset date Snow melt date Density (thermal conductivity) Zhang 2005
4 Snow vs T air influence on T soil trends Modeled T soil (20m) at Barrow T air and P time series T air climatology; P time series T air time series; P climatology Stieglitz et al., 2003
5 Projected snow changes in CCSM3 ( )
6 Controlled Snowfall and Prescribed Snow Experiments Two sets of offline expts with CLM for the period 1950 to 2100 Controlled snowfall expts MID20C_FALL: snowfall rates held at levels TRND_FALL: with snowfall trend (smoothed with 9-yr run. avg.) Prescribed snowfall expts Isolate role of snow season length and snow depth trends on T soil Prescribe linear transitions in snow season length and snow depth
7 Controlled Snowfall and Prescribed Snow Experiments Two sets of offline expts with CLM for the period 1950 to 2100 Controlled snowfall expts MID20C_FALL: snowfall rates held at levels TRND_FALL: with snowfall trend (smoothed with 9-yr run. avg.) Prescribed snowfall expts Isolate role of snow season length and snow depth trends on T soil Prescribe linear transitions in snow season length and snow depth
8 CCSM3 Projected snow changes A1B, minus % increase in winter snowfall deeper OR shallower snowpack
9 CLM offline controlled Snowfall experiment W/ Snow trnd No Snow trnd Alaska E. Siberia
10 Effects of increasing snowfall TRND_FALL MID20C_FALL ( )
11 Offline controlled snowfall experiment Integrated area with permafrost within 3m of surface millions of km 2 CONTROL NO SNOW TRND NO RAIN TRND Increasing snowfall is effectively a soil warming agent 10% 30% of total soil warming at 1m depth ~16% contraction of near-surface permafrost
12 Controlled Snowfall and Prescribed Snow Experiments Two sets of offline expts with CLM for the period 1950 to 2100 Controlled snowfall expts MID20C_FALL: snowfall rates held at levels TRND_FALL: with snowfall trend (smoothed with 9-yr run. avg.) Prescribed snowfall expts Isolate role of snow season length and snow depth trends on T soil Prescribe linear transitions in snow season length and snow depth
13 Prescribed snow experiments HOLD_DP Hold SNWDP at levels HOLD_MW_DP Hold mid-winter SNWDP at levels; shoulder season SNWDP transitions linearly from to levels TRND_DP SNWDP transitions linearly from to levels HOLD_MW_DP HOLD_DP impact of snow season length TRND_DP HOLD_MW_DP impact of mid-winter SNWDP TRND_DP HOLD_DP combined SNWDP and season length
14 Prescribed snow experiments HOLD_MW_DP HOLD_DP TRND_DP HOLD_MW_DP TRND_DP HOLD_DP Snow Cover Fraction (AMSO) Snow Depth (NDJFMA) HOLD_MW_DP HOLD_DP impact of snow season length TRND_DP HOLD_MW_DP impact of mid-winter SNWDP TRND_DP HOLD_DP combined SNWDP and season length
15 HOLD_MW_DP HOLD_DP TRND_DP HOLD_MW_DP TRND_DP HOLD_DP T soil, max Snow Cover Fraction (AMSO) Snow Depth (NDJFMA)
16 Relative influence of snow versus T air change on T soil % of T soil,max (1m depth) attributable to snow state trends 50% means that T soil trend equally due to snow state and T air trends
17 Summary (Lawrence and Slater, Clim. Dyn., 2009) The deeper relative snowpack (due to increasing snowfall) is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for between 10% and 30% of total soil warming and ~16% of the simulated 21st century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening of the snow-season enhances soil warming due to an extension of the spring/summer/autumn soil heating period. A shallowing of the snowpack impedes soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. The generally opposing influence of Snow-season length and Snow depth on T soil results in cases of enhanced soil warming and relative soil cooling due to projected snow state changes. Snow and T air change exert roughly equivalent forcing on T soil change over the last 50 yrs of 20th century; the relative influence of snow change diminishes under the strong projected warming of 21st century.
18 Air versus Soil temperature change (CCSM3, A1B) = minus
19 Results from Community Snow Project: Snow Cover Fraction (ANN) Community Snow - Obs Control - Obs Community Snow - Control
20 Results from Community Snow Project: Surface air temperature (ANN) Community Snow - Obs Control Obs Community Snow - Control
21 Snow compaction Snow depth Snow depth T snow Snow depth Impact: 10-20% shallower snow pack T snow
22 Vertical temperature profile after layer splitting Snow depth Snow depth T snow T snow Snow depth T snow
23 Soil hydrology Arctic relevant LMWG changes for CLM4 permit supercooled water (CLM3.5) revision of infiltration into/through partially icy soil (CLM3.5) Snow model snow cover fraction snow burial fraction for short vegetation adopt SNICAR (snow age, vertically resolved heating in snowpack, aerosol deposition) snow compaction Organic soil physical properties (possibly integrate with CN) Deeper soil column (~50 m, 15 soil levels) Shrub vegetation type in CLM-CNDV (Dynamic vegetation) Dynamic wetlands (lakes) Methane emission model
24 CLM soil carbon density dataset Source data from Global Soil Data Task Kg m -2 f sc,i = ρ sc,i / ρ peat fraction of layer i that is organic matter i = 1, 2, 3, 10 soil layers Lawrence and Slater, 2007
25 Annual cycle-depth soil temperature plots Siberia SOILCARB + DEEP SOIL Lawrence et al., 2007
26 SOILCARB CONTROL (JJA)
27 Soil carbon in CLM-CN Soil carbon content: Obs Soil carbon content: CLM-CN Goal is to couple CLM-CN soil carbon with organic soil parameterization
28 Soil hydrology Arctic relevant LMWG changes for CLM4 Permit supercooled water (CLM3.5) Revision of infiltration into/through partially icy soil (CLM3.5) Snow model snow cover fraction snow burial fraction for short vegetation Adopt SNICAR (snow age, vertically resolved heating in snowpack, aerosol deposition) snow compaction Organic soil physical properties (possibly integrate with CN) Deeper soil column (~50 m, 15 soil levels) Shrub vegetation type in CLM-CNDV (Dynamic vegetation) Dynamic wetlands (lakes) Methane emission model
29 Improvements to albedo (no snow cover) Improvements due to new grass optical properties and revised assumptions about how to treat herbaceous understory in Plant Function Type framework
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