Projected state of the Arctic Sea Ice and Permafrost by 2030
|
|
- Buddy Gilmore
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1 of 9 Projected state of the Arctic Sea Ice and Permafrost by 2030 By Karsten Steinhaeuser, Esther Parish, Alex Sorokine, Auroop R. Ganguly* Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN *Corresponding Author: Geographic Information Science and Technology Group Computational Science and Engineering Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, gangulyar@ornl.gov Phone: Programmatic Point of Contact: Blair Ross National Security Directorate Department of Defense Programs Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN rossb@ornl.gov Phone: Background The United States Department of Defense (US DOD) requires an understanding of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, as well as permafrost in the Northern hemisphere, for an exercise focused on preparedness levels and threat assessments in light of anticipated climate change in the 2030s. The deliverables include visual products, based on supporting data analysis and interpretation, which will allow military planners to utilize one plausible scenario. The analysis and visuals presented in this report are based on outputs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). The science grounding relies on comparisons of the relevant CCSM3 model outputs with observations in the current decade, as well as through the use of state-of-the-art approaches from the recent literature. While multi-model ensembles are typically used in synthesis and assessment products of this nature (e.g., IPCC 2007), here we rely on the use of one of the IPCC s suite of models, the CCSM3, primarily because of our familiarity with the model. The CCSM3 simulations used here are based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2, which is a relatively aggressive emissions scenario (IPCC 2007), even though recent emissions appear to be trending higher (Raupach et al. 2007).
2 2 of 9 Arctic Sea Ice The US DOD exercise requires twelve maps, one for each month, of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in the 2030 s. The projections generated here use simulations from the Community Sea Ice Model component of CCSM3 forced with the A2 scenario. Specifically, the following variables are used here: sea ice concentration (sic) and sea ice thickness (sit). Sea ice extent is defined as the area covered by a concentration of at least 15 percent 1. As a baseline validation, we compare the total area computed from model output to observations 2 (Figure 1). The results show that (i) the periods are aligned, (ii) there is significant agreement on the extent during the summer months, and (iii) the model tends to over-estimate the extent during the winter months. We conclude that the match between sea ice extent from CCSM3 and observations is sufficient to justify the use of CCSM3 model outputs for this exercise. This decision is further supported by a similar comparison performed by Stroeve et al. (2007) involving multiple models, which shows that while most models under-estimate the decline in sea ice CCSM3 model simulations match observations more closely than many other climate models within the IPCC s suite of models (IPCC 2007) used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Figure 1. Comparison of Arctic sea ice extent from model and observation The projections are based on the monthly decadal-averages centered around 2030 (i.e., ). In other words, for each month, sea ice extent and thickness from CCSM3 are averaged over the entire decade, leading to twelve monthly decadal-average maps. The area covered by an average of at least 15 percent of sea ice defines the sea ice boundary 1. In addition to extent of the sea ice, the sea ice thickness produced by the CCSM3 climate model is displayed through a color gradient within the sea ice boundary. Figure 2 presents sample visuals based on these definitions of sea ice extent and thickness for each monthly average in the 2030s. 1 This definition is used by the National Snow and Ice Data Center ( as well as in recent publications on sea ice extent (e.g., 2 Based on satellite imagery, provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (
3 Figure 2. Sample visuals of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and thickness for 2030 (decadal average) 3 of 9
4 4 of 9 Northern Hemisphere Permafrost The US DOD exercise requires two maps of permafrost in the Northern hemisphere for 2030, one oriented to show North America (specifically, the United States including Alaska, Canada, and Greenland) and the other to show Europe (specifically, Scandinavia and Russia). Projections generated here are based on the Community Land Model component of CCSM3 forced with the A2 scenario. Specifically, we use simulations of soil temperature (TSOI). Permafrost is defined as ground that remains at or below 0 C for at least two consecutive years 3. Lawrence and Slater (2005) adopt this definition and compare permafrost conditions from CCSM3 and observations (see Figure 1 in their paper cited here, specifically panels (a) and (c)). They use all ten soil layers modeled in CCSM3 and find reasonable agreement between model and observations. For our materials, we use the same definition of permafrost, but only consider the deepest layer centered at a depth of 2.86m. In addition, rather than visualizing the depths at which permafrost persists, we show the number of months in the twoyear period for which this deep layer remains at or below 0 C. A visualization of average monthly permafrost as defined here may be more relevant for military planners in the context of the US DOD exercise. Sample visuals are presented in Figures 3 and 4. Figure 3. Sample visual of permafrost conditions in North America (color scale indicates number of months ground remains at or below 0 C) 3 This definition is provided by the International Permafrost Association (
5 5 of 9 Figure 4. Sample visual of permafrost conditions in Northern Europe (color scale indicates number of months ground remains at or below 0 C) Limitations As a baseline validation, we compare the soil temperature from model output to reanalysis data 4 (serving as the best proxy for global observations). Because we are primarily concerned with conditions in high latitudes, we only consider land areas between 60N and 90N. To match the available reanalysis data, which is an average value for soil 10cm-200cm in depth, we take the average over the corresponding six layers (4 through 9) of the climate model. The results are shown in Figure 5. It is apparent that, while some seasonal variability is captured by the model, there are significant differences in both mean and amplitude of the two series. Thus, permafrost areas shown in these materials are likely to under-estimate the actual extent. Future research on permafrost conditions should therefore consider multi-model outputs and explore alternate data sources. However, the correlation is very high (nearly 0.95), suggesting that bias-correction of model outputs using a statistical (e.g., regressive) model may be possible. Figure 5. Comparison of soil temperature from model and observation 4 Based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project, provided by NOAA (
6 6 of 9 Appendix A Deliverable Maps The final deliverable consists of 14 maps created using commercial GIS software; an example is shown in Figure 6. In addition to sea ice extent and thickness (depicted by a blue-to-white color gradient) the maps also contain country boundaries (grey), oceans and major rivers (blue), various military installations (red), as well as topography and the prime meridian for orientation. All maps are rendered at sufficient resolution for overhead projection or color printing. Figure 6. Example of a deliverable-quality map
7 7 of 9 Appendix B Final Deliverables: Arctic Sea Ice Figure 7. Final deliverable maps for Arctic sea ice extent and thickness supplied to the US DOD
8 8 of 9 Appendix C Final Deliverables: Permafrost Conditions Figure 8. Final deliverable maps for permafrost conditions supplied to the US DOD (at our sponsor s request, the final maps show only areas where the ground remains frozen under the active layer as opposed to the full range of 1-24 months)
9 9 of 9 References Arzel, O., Fichefet, T., and Hugues Goosse (2006): Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modeling, 12, IPCC (2007): The Fourth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available from the Internet: Lawrence, D.M., and Andrew G. Slater (2005): A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L Raupach, M. R., G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. L. Quere, J. G. Canadell, G. Klepper, and C. B. Field (2007): Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104 (24): Stroeve, J., Holland, M.M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Mark Serreze (2007): Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L Acknowledgments The authors thank the following colleagues at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for their reviews, help and support: Blair Ross for programmatic support, Shih-Chieh Kao for assisting in the problem definition and review of solution strategies, Anthony W. King and David J. Erickson III for technical reviews within ORNL s publications review system, as well as David Bader, Budhendra Bhaduri, James Hack and Gary Jacobs for their support. This research was funded by the United States Department of Defense and by the Laboratory Directed Research & Development Program of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which in turn is managed by UT- Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-00OR The United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.
IMPACTS OF A WARMING ARCTIC
The Earth s Greenhouse Effect Most of the heat energy emitted from the surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases which radiate heat back down to warm the lower atmosphere and the surface. Increasing the
More information8.1 CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS OF UNITED STATES SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY
8.1 CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS OF UNITED STATES SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY Daria Scott Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences St. Could State University, St. Cloud, MN Dale Kaiser*
More informationGabriel Kuhn, Shiraj Khan, Auroop R Ganguly* Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
13 December, 2006 New approaches for extreme value analysis in large-scale geospatialtemporal data with applications to observed and climate-model simulated precipitation in South America Gabriel Kuhn,
More informationImportance of physics, resolution and forcing in hindcast simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability and trends
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Predictability of Polar Climate Bergen, 25-29 October 2010 Importance of physics, resolution and forcing in hindcast simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
More informationRACER-WWF Report on Climate Change Scenarios
RACER-WWF Report on Climate Change Scenarios Author: Institution: David Huard Ouranos Inc. Date: May 2010 Introduction The present document provides a brief overview of the work
More informationChanges in Frequency of Extreme Wind Events in the Arctic
Changes in Frequency of Extreme Wind Events in the Arctic John E. Walsh Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois 105 S. Gregory Avenue Urbana, IL 61801 phone: (217) 333-7521 fax: (217)
More informationWhat is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
More informationDaria Scott Dept. of Geography University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware
5.2 VARIABILITY AND TRENDS IN UNITED STA TES SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST HALF CENTURY Daria Scott Dept. of Geography University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware Dale Kaiser* Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
More informationDeke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Peter Thorne, PhD, Senior Scientist, Cooperative Institute for Climate and
More informationPermafrost http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/11/16/north-bigfix-permafrost.html 1. What is permafrost? Permafrost is a thick layer of permanently frozen ground. 2. Large parts of northeastern Russia
More informationArctic sea ice in IPCC climate scenarios in view of the 2007 record low sea ice event A comment by Ralf Döscher, Michael Karcher and Frank Kauker
Arctic sea ice in IPCC climate scenarios in view of the 2007 record low sea ice event A comment by Ralf Döscher, Michael Karcher and Frank Kauker Fig. 1: Arctic September sea ice extent in observations
More informationArctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37,, doi:10.1029/2010gl044988, 2010 Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability Jinlun Zhang,
More information(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability,
(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability, (2) It s Long-term Loss and Implications for Ocean Conditions Marika Holland, NCAR With contributions from: David Bailey, Alex Jahn, Jennifer Kay, Laura Landrum, Steve
More informationThe Northern Hemisphere Sea ice Trends: Regional Features and the Late 1990s Change. Renguang Wu
The Northern Hemisphere Sea ice Trends: Regional Features and the Late 1990s Change Renguang Wu Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing World Conference on Climate Change
More informationCLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update
CLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update Tatiana Pavlova and Vladimir Kattsov Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia Workshop on Global
More informationFuture Climate Change
Future Climate Change How do you know whether to trust a prediction about the future? All predictions are based on global circulation models (GCMs, AOGCMs) - model accuracy is verified by its ability to
More informationAnnual September Arctic Sea ice extent
Annual September Arctic Sea ice extent 1979-2012 Annual September Arctic Sea ice extent 1979-2012 Notes: The month of September has the minimum sea ice cover each year. Passive microwave instruments on
More informationRecent Climate Variability, Trends and the Future
Recent Climate Variability, Trends and the Future Summary of observed variability and change While there is no doubt that the global average surface air temperature has risen over the period of instrumental
More informationClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February
More informationConfronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS Large, three-dimensional, coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) of
More informationExtremely cold weather events caused by arctic air mass and its synoptic situation in Finland from the year 1950 onwards
Extremely cold weather events caused by arctic air mass and its synoptic situation in Finland from the year 1950 onwards Senior meteorologist Henri Nyman Finnish Meteorological Institute, Weather and Safety
More informationPossible Applications of Deep Neural Networks in Climate and Weather. David M. Hall Assistant Research Professor Dept. Computer Science, CU Boulder
Possible Applications of Deep Neural Networks in Climate and Weather David M. Hall Assistant Research Professor Dept. Computer Science, CU Boulder Quick overview of climate and weather models Weather models
More informationProjections of 21st century Arctic sea ice loss. Alexandra Jahn University of Colorado Boulder
Projections of 21st century Arctic sea ice loss Alexandra Jahn University of Colorado Boulder Outline Sea ice projections/ensembles 101 How is Arctic sea ice projected to change in the 21 st century? State
More informationClimatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future
Climatic and Ecological Conditions in the Klamath Basin of Southern Oregon and Northern California: Projections for the Future A Collaborative Effort by: CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE INSTITUTE FOR A SUSTAINABLE
More informationClimate Projections and Energy Security
NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division Climate Projections and Energy Security Andy Hoell and Jim Wilczak Research Meteorologists, Physical Sciences Division 7 June 2016
More informationTrends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest
Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Don Wuebbles Zachary Zobel Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana November 11, 2015 Date Name of Meeting 1 Arctic
More informationGlobal Climate Change
Why? Global Climate Change What evidence have scientists collected to support global climate change? Global climate change is a topic that is frequently discussed but often misunderstood due to the complexities
More informationA New Approach to Predicting the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent
A New Approach to Predicting the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Guangshan Chen Department of Computer Science University of Wisconsin-Madison Madison, WI 53705 gchen9@wisc.edu Jin Ruan Department of
More informationSecond-Order Draft Chapter 10 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Second-Order Draft Chapter IPCC WG Fourth Assessment Report Figure... Multi model mean changes in a) zonal mean cloud fraction (in %), shown as a cross section though the atmosphere, and b) total cloud
More informationNSIDC Sea Ice Outlook Contribution, 31 May 2012
Summary NSIDC Sea Ice Outlook Contribution, 31 May 2012 Julienne Stroeve, Walt Meier, Mark Serreze, Ted Scambos, Mark Tschudi NSIDC is using the same approach as the last 2 years: survival of ice of different
More informationGlobal Climate Change
Global Climate Change Overview: Students will learn about global climate change, what causes global warming, and scientific projections about climate change in the near future. Levels V-VI Grades 9-12
More informationLecture 28: Observed Climate Variability and Change
Lecture 28: Observed Climate Variability and Change 1. Introduction This chapter focuses on 6 questions - Has the climate warmed? Has the climate become wetter? Are the atmosphere/ocean circulations changing?
More informationWhither Arctic Sea Ice?
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Whither Arctic Sea Ice? Walt Meier http://nsidc.org Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network May 9, 2011 1 The Cryosphere
More informationLower Stratospheric Cooling. and. Abrupt Change in Arctic Sea Ice
Lower Stratospheric Cooling and Abrupt Change in Arctic Sea Ice Carl Drews March 16, 2007 ATOC 7500-002 Human Influences on Weather and Climate University of Colorado at Boulder Dr. Roger Pielke Sr, Instructor
More informationClimate change: How do we know?
Climate change: How do we know? This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased
More informationDetection of external influence on Northern Hemispheric snow cover
Detection of external influence on Northern Hemispheric snow cover Tianshu Ma 1, Xuebin Zhang 1,2 Helene Massam 1, Francis Zwiers 3 Georges Monette 1, David Robinson 4 1 Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics,
More informationATOC OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow
ATOC 1060-002 OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow cover, permafrost, river and lake ice, ; [3]Glaciers and
More informationRecent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets
Recent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets Abstract: Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, Pennsylvania and Anne Balogh The Pennsylvania State University
More informationModeling the Arctic Climate System
Modeling the Arctic Climate System General model types Single-column models: Processes in a single column Land Surface Models (LSMs): Interactions between the land surface, atmosphere and underlying surface
More informationfor a living planet ARCTIC CLIMATE FEEDBACKS: GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
for a living planet ARCTIC CLIMATE FEEDBACKS: GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS ARCTIC CLIMATE FEEDBACKS: GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS Martin Sommerkorn & Susan Joy Hassol, editors With contributions from: Mark C. Serreze &
More informationMiSP Ecology/Pollution Global Warming Worksheet #1, L2 GLOBAL WARMING AND ICE EXTENT
MiSP Ecology/Pollution Global Warming Worksheet #1, L2 Name Date GLOBAL WARMING AND ICE EXTENT Introduction: Sea ice is found in remote polar oceans. On average, sea ice covers about 25 million square
More informationObserved Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
More information2015 Record breaking temperature anomalies
2015 Record breaking temperature anomalies June 2015 global temperature was the highest in 136 (since 1880) years reaching an average of 0.88 C above the 20 th century average. This is an increase of 0.12
More informationCredibility of climate predictions revisited
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 29 Vienna, Austria, 19 24 April 29 Session CL54/NP4.5 Climate time series analysis: Novel tools and their application Credibility of climate predictions revisited
More informationGlobal Climate Change - What evidence have scientists collected to support global climate change? Why? Model 1 Earth s Surface Temperatures.
Name Blk Global Climate Change - What evidence have scientists collected to support global climate change? Obj/Module 63. Evidence of Global Warming Why? Global climate change is a topic that is frequently
More informationImpacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate
Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate Will Perrie, Lanli Guo, Zhenxia Long, Bash Toulany Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS Abstract
More informationWhat are the consequences of melting pack ice?
The Hydrosphere s Cryosphere: A-Pack Ice: (Sea Ice) They are large sheets of ice found in the oceans around Antarctica and in the Arctic Ocean. Smaller ones are called ice floes. Example 1: What are the
More informationQUALITY INFORMATION DOCUMENT For Arctic Ice Extent Indicator. ARC_SEAICE_INDEX_002
QUALITY INFORMATION DOCUMENT For Arctic Ice Extent Indicator. Issue: 1.2 Contributors: Steinar Eastwood, Lars-Anders Breivik, Bruce Hackett, Thomas Lavergne, Gorm Dybkjær, Cecilie Wettre Approval Date
More informationJennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University In collaboration with Steve Vavrus, U. of Wisconsin
Jennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University In collaboration with Steve Vavrus, U. of Wisconsin Arctic Linkages Workshop National Academies of Sciences 12-13 September
More informationContribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37,, doi:10.1029/2010gl045022, 2010 Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification Arun Kumar, 1 Judith Perlwitz, 2 Jon Eischeid, 2 Xiaowei Quan, 2 Taiyi Xu, 2
More informationThe North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Raymond W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa USA
The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Raymond W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa USA NARCCAP Participants Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William
More informationThe forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss
The forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss Marika Holland, NCAR With: C. Bitz (U.WA), B. Tremblay (McGill), D. Bailey (NCAR), J. Stroeve (NSIDC), M. Serreze (NSIDC), D. Lawrence (NCAR), S
More informationAppendix F: Projecting Future Sea Level Rise with the SLRRP Model
Appendix F: Projecting Future Sea Level Rise with the SLRRP Model The Sea Level Rise Rectification Program (SLRRP) is a software package designed with a user-friendly interface to generate a suite of future
More informationTHE CANADIAN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS
THE CANADIAN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS As Canada s climate changes, and weather patterns shift, Canadian climate models provide guidance in an uncertain future. CANADA S CLIMATE IS CHANGING
More informationNorthern Rockies Adaptation Partnership: Climate Projections
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership: Climate Projections Contents Observed and Projected Climate for the NRAP Region... 2 Observed and Projected Climate for the NRAP Central Subregion... 8 Observed
More informationErrata. Version 11/07/2014 1
Version 11/7/214 1 Climate Change 213: The Physical Science Basis The Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Page Item Correction ii Frontmatter Insert the following text: The
More informationAccelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L01703, doi:10.1029/2007gl031972, 2008 Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover Josefino C. Comiso, 1 Claire L. Parkinson, 1 Robert
More informationA Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late 20 th century N. Atlantic Ocean heat content
A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late 20 th century N. Atlantic Ocean heat content Steve Yeager, Alicia Karspeck, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Joe Tribbia, Haiyan Teng NCAR, Boulder, CO Yeager et al., 2012, J.
More informationRecent climate variability, trends and the future
Recent climate variability, trends and the future Summary of observed variability and change While there is no doubt that the global average surface air temperatures has risen over the period of instrumental
More informationChapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016
Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record
More informationWhich Climate Model is Best?
Which Climate Model is Best? Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 Adapting for an Uncertain Climate: Preparing
More informationSpecial blog on winter 2016/2017 retrospective can be found here -
March 4, 2019 Special blog on winter 2016/2017 retrospective can be found here - http://www.aer.com/winter2017 Special blog on winter 2015/2016 retrospective can be found here - http://www.aer.com/winter2016
More informationActivity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference)
Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference) Teacher Notes: Evidence for Climate Change PowerPoint Slide 1 Slide 2 Introduction Image 1 (Namib Desert, Namibia) The sun is on the horizon
More informationThe Distribution of Cold Environments
The Distribution of Cold Environments Over 25% of the surface of our planet can be said to have a cold environment, but defining what we actually mean by that can be very challenging. This is because cold
More informationTerrestrial Climate Change Variables
Terrestrial Climate Change Variables Content Terrestrial Climate Change Variables Surface Air Temperature Land Surface Temperature Sea Level Ice Level Aerosol Particles (acid rain) Terrestrial Climate
More informationEvaluating the Discrete Element Method as a Tool for Predicting the Seasonal Evolution of the MIZ
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Evaluating the Discrete Element Method as a Tool for Predicting the Seasonal Evolution of the MIZ Arnold J. Song Cold Regions
More informationChallenges for Climate Science in the Arctic. Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden
Challenges for Climate Science in the Arctic Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden The Arctic is changing 1) Why is Arctic sea ice disappearing so rapidly? 2) What are the local and remote consequences?
More informationConstraining Model Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With Observations. Chris Ander 27 April 2010 Atmos 6030
Constraining Model Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With Observations Chris Ander 27 April 2010 Atmos 6030 Main Sources Boe et al., 2009: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by
More informationChanging predictability characteristics of Arctic sea ice in a warming climate
Changing predictability characteristics of Arctic sea ice in a warming climate Marika Holland 1 Laura Landrum 1, John Mioduszewski 2, Steve Vavrus 2, Muyin Wang 3 1. NCAR, 2. U. Wisconsin-Madison, 3. NOAA
More informationIPCC Chapter 12: Long- term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility
GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn 2015 23.11.2015 IPCC Chapter 12: Long- term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility Introduction and Background (from Chapter 10 and 11) Climate Model
More informationJennifer Jacobs, Bryan Carignan, and Carrie Vuyovich. Environmental Research Group University of New Hampshire
Jennifer Jacobs, Bryan Carignan, and Carrie Vuyovich Environmental Research Group University of New Hampshire New Hampshire Water Conference March 21, 2014 Funding Provided By: NASA 1 Precipitation is
More informationInfluence of Initial Conditions and Climate Forcing on Predicting Arctic Sea Ice
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.???, XXXX, DOI:1.129/, 1 2 Influence of Initial Conditions and Climate Forcing on Predicting Arctic Sea Ice E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, 1 C. M. Bitz, 1 and M. M. Holland,
More informationCLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS NORTHERN ALBERTA. Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting
CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS NORTHERN ALBERTA Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting Probability of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Less
More informationLake parameters climatology for cold start runs (lake initialization) in the ECMWF forecast system
2nd Workshop on Parameterization of Lakes in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Modelling Lake parameters climatology for cold start runs (lake initialization) in the ECMWF forecast system R. Salgado(1),
More informationHow Will Low Clouds Respond to Global Warming?
How Will Low Clouds Respond to Global Warming? By Axel Lauer & Kevin Hamilton CCSM3 UKMO HadCM3 UKMO HadGEM1 iram 2 ECHAM5/MPI OM 3 MIROC3.2(hires) 25 IPSL CM4 5 INM CM3. 4 FGOALS g1. 7 GISS ER 6 GISS
More informationClimate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview
Climate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview Dr Jim Salinger National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Auckland, New Zealand INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY
More informationThe oceans: Sea level rise & gulf stream
Lecture Climate Change Lesson 10 The oceans: Sea level rise & gulf stream Rene Orth rene.orth@bgc-jena.mpg.de 1 Course webpage https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/bgi/index.php/lectures/hydrobioclimclimatechange
More informationExtremes of Weather and the Latest Climate Change Science. Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading
Extremes of Weather and the Latest Climate Change Science Prof. Richard Allan, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Extreme weather climate change Recent extreme weather focusses debate on climate
More informationNetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD
NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NCAR s climate model data A bit of history... 1960s - 1990s Self-designed self-implemented binary formats 1990s-2000s netcdf-3
More informationGlobal Warming: The known, the unknown, and the unknowable
Global Warming: The known, the unknown, and the unknowable Barry A. Klinger Jagadish Shukla George Mason University (GMU) Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES) January, 2008, George Mason
More informationThe Netherlands approach for generating climate change. scenarios. Bart van den Hurk, KNMI and many others
The Netherlands approach for generating climate change scenarios Bart van den Hurk, KNMI and many others What is the global climate problem? Climate change is normal Natural influences: Internal variability
More informationCorrection to Evaluation of the simulation of the annual cycle of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverages by 11 major global climate models
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111,, doi:10.1029/2006jc003949, 2006 Correction to Evaluation of the simulation of the annual cycle of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverages by 11 major global climate
More informationSEA ICE OUTLOOK 2016 Report
SEA ICE OUTLOOK 2016 Report Template with Core Requirements for Pan-Arctic Contributions and Guidelines for Submitting Optional Alaskan Regional Outlook, Figures, and Gridded Data Submission Guidelines:
More informationChanging Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean: The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Panama Canal Authority 11 January 2005
Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean: The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Panama Canal Authority 11 January 2005 Lawson Brigham Deputy Director, U.S. Arctic Research Commission ACIA Contributing
More informationATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA AND CLIMATE SEASONAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN THE 20 th AND 21 st CENTURIES
SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL EARTH S CRYOSPHERE Kriosfera Zemli, 2014, vol. XVIII, No. 4, pp. 69 74 http://www.izdatgeo.ru ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA AND CLIMATE SEASONAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE TERRITORY
More informationARCTIC FISHERIES: GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Commentary ARCTIC FISHERIES: GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FRANK MILLERD JULY 2011 Contact: fmillerd@wlu.ca Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University. Contact: fmillerd@wlu.ca.
More informationWhy build a climate model
Climate Modeling Why build a climate model Atmosphere H2O vapor and Clouds Absorbing gases CO2 Aerosol Land/Biota Surface vegetation Ice Sea ice Ice sheets (glaciers) Ocean Box Model (0 D) E IN = E OUT
More informationAttribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L23709, doi:10.1029/2009gl041269, 2009 Attribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure N. P. Gillett 1 and P. A.
More informationREGIONAL SIMULATION WITH THE PRECIS MODEL
Anales Instituto Patagonia (Chile), 2012. 40(1):45-50 45 REGIONAL SIMULATION WITH THE PRECIS MODEL SIMULACIÓN REGIONAL CON EL MODELO PRECIS Mark Falvey 1 During 2006 the Geophysics Department of the University
More informationIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Founded Provides science assessments. Policy-relevant, not policy-prescriptive. Major reports: 1990,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Founded 1988. Provides science assessments. Policy-relevant, not policy-prescriptive. Major reports: 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007. Highly regarded, endorsed by many
More informationERBE Geographic Scene and Monthly Snow Data
NASA Contractor Report 4773 ERBE Geographic Scene and Monthly Snow Data Lisa H. Coleman, Beth T. Flug, Shalini Gupta, Edward A. Kizer, and John L. Robbins Science Applications International Corporation
More informationThis satellite image of an Ellesmere Island glacier that reaches the sea in the Greely Fjord reveals growing meltwater ponds on the glacier's surface
This satellite image of an Ellesmere Island glacier that reaches the sea in the Greely Fjord reveals growing meltwater ponds on the glacier's surface as well as icebergs that have calved off the glacier
More informationAppendix 1: UK climate projections
Appendix 1: UK climate projections The UK Climate Projections 2009 provide the most up-to-date estimates of how the climate may change over the next 100 years. They are an invaluable source of information
More informationTraining: Climate Change Scenarios for PEI. Training Session April Neil Comer Research Climatologist
Training: Climate Change Scenarios for PEI Training Session April 16 2012 Neil Comer Research Climatologist Considerations: Which Models? Which Scenarios?? How do I get information for my location? Uncertainty
More informationGlobal Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Other signs of (global) warming. Global Sea Level Rise. Change in upper ocean temperature ( )
Global Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Change in upper ocean temperature (1955-2003) 0.25C 0.50C Solid lines are three independent estimates (95% confidence interval in grey) IPCC 2007 Fig TS.16 Trends in
More informationAMAP. Climate Change in the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessment Summary
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado AMAP Climate Change in the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessment Summary Arctic
More informationHistorical and Projected National and Regional Climate Trends
Climate Change Trends for Planning at Sand Creek Massacre National Historic Site Prepared by Nicholas Fisichelli, NPS Climate Change Response Program April 18, 2013 Climate change and National Parks Climate
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations
More informationGlobal Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma. Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey Our previous stance on global warming Why the anxiety? Extreme Viewpoints!
More informationClimate Change Scenarios 2030s
Climate Change Scenarios 2030s Ashwini Kulkarni ashwini@tropmet.res.in K Krishna Kumar, Ashwini Kulkarni, Savita Patwardhan, Nayana Deshpande, K Kamala, Koteswara Rao Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
More information