Lake parameters climatology for cold start runs (lake initialization) in the ECMWF forecast system
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1 2nd Workshop on Parameterization of Lakes in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Modelling Lake parameters climatology for cold start runs (lake initialization) in the ECMWF forecast system R. Salgado(1), G. Balsamo(2), E. Dutra(3), S. Boussetta(2) & M.Potes(1) Geophysical Centre, University of Évora (2) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (3) Geophysical Centre, IDL, University of Lisbon (1)
2 Coupling FLAKE to HTESSEL tr u D l., a t ae New TILE - allows sub-grid lakes + Surface fluxes (heat moisture and momentum) from HTESSEL routines; No snow over frozen lakes! No bottom sediments! Surface characteristics ( albedo, roughness, emissivity, etc) equal to water or sea ice tiles; Dutra EN, Stepanenko VM, Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Mironov D, Schaer C Impact of lakes on the performance of global simulations with the ECMWF surface scheme, Boreal Environment Research
3 The use of the FLake lake model inside an weather forecast system requires the knowledge of some parameters and the initial conditions of its variables. Parameters: Depth Extinction coefficient of solar radiation in water Water surface radiative proprieties (albedos, emissivity) Lake variables are currently not treated by the data assimilation systems. One possible solution is to create a climate of FLake variables from off-line long periods simulations
4 Global lake depth database Kourzeneva database GlobalLakeDe pth.dat Resolution: 30 sec. of arc.
5 Global lake depth database Only where there are real information about lake depth
6 Global lake + Caspian + Ocean depth database Kourzeneva database + Caspian bathymetry + Ocean Bathymetry Ocean bathymetry from ETOPO at ~2km resolution Caspian bathymetry at ~4km resolution Default: 30 m Minimum: 1m Resolution: aggregated to 5 arc min
7 How to obtain initial values for cold starts? Flake (water + Ice) variables (7, 6 independent) Surface or mixed layer temperature Mixed layer depth Bottom temperature, Shape factor Mean water temperature Ice depth Ice temperature
8 LAKE PLANET experiment Long Off-line simulation with HTESSEL+FLake Forcing: ERA-Interim reanalysis (21 Years) 3 hourly atmospheric input data N128 resolution (~80km) Lakes overall (lake fraction = 1 over all grid points) with: Constant depth (30m) Variable depth (Kourzeneva + Caspian + 100m ocean + 30 m default) Grid box depth is aggregated from lake depths at higher resolution. Spin-up: 10 years with 1989 forcing
9 LAKE PLANET Validation In order to validate we are using the following available information Lake Surface Temperature MODIS SST Ice IMS (Ice Mapping System), sea-ice product from NOAA Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database (from NSDC) ice cover descriptive data for 750 lakes Lake thermal structure (Flake variables) Local scale available data
10 MODIS SST Available from 2001 (up to 2009) Resolution: 4 km Daily database (nighttime and daytime) Aggregated to the N128 gaussian grid 8 Day mean SST (DSST+NSST) were used Includes information about percent of missing values Only points with less than 80% missing values were considered Summer mean SST and missing values
11 NOAA IMS sea-ice Available since 1998 at 25km (at 4km from 2004) Only Northern Hemisphere Daily database of the ice cover (yes or no for each pixel) For each year and IMS pixel we compute: lake ice formation date breakup date Sep Ice season duration (days) Aggregated to the N128 gaussian grid
12 Lake Planet results Ice Depth
13 Frozen day
14 Ice Break up
15 Lake Planet Ice duration
16 Lake Planet validation ICE formation and break - up The model tends to freeze sooner about 10 days before in averaged The break-up is well simulates At high latitudes, modelled Ice breaks up (or breaks up earlier)
17 Lake Planet validation ICE duration
18 Lake Planet validation - SST Mean Surface Water temperature Lake Planet experiment and SST from MODIS (includes inland points - LST)
19 SST LakePlanet versus MODIS Global, Ocean +lakes RSME (Total) = 2.1 ºC RSME (lakes) = 5.5ºC BIAS (total) = 0.4 BIAS (lakes) = 0.7 Temporal mean SST Good agreement Lakes Lake Fraction > 10% Resolved Lakes Lake Fraction = 100%
20 SST LakePlanet versus MODIS (BIAS) Positive bias: Great lakes Caspian Mean latitudes Negative bias: Scandinavia Victoria
21 SST LakePlanet versus MODIS (RMSE) High RSMEs Over Caspian Southern Great Lakes Himalayas region
22 Lake Planet Climatology (Example: January)
23 Conclusions A monthly climatology of FLake variables has been created For IFS cold start runs may be interpolated for different grids Based on a LAKE PLANET experiment forced by ERA Interim Re-analysis ( ) The validation of the LAKE PLANET is ongoing. Preliminary results shows: Ice begins sooner in the experiment; Ice break-up is, in averaged, better simulated High Bias and RSME over Caspian water surface temperature ICE Break-up in Arctic Summer (initialization, and fresh - water) The use of analysed SST will be better Other Flake variables have to be validated The Lake Model Intercomparison Project? Some values seems to be not physically consistent
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