October 2010 Climate Summary

Transcription

1 Ken Scheeringa (765) Nov 5, October 2010 Climate Summary Summary Rain fell on about 10 days in October but did little to slow the drought raging across Indiana. For the eight month in a row state average temperatures were above normal at 56.2, or 2.2 above the long term average. This average temperature ranks October 2010 in a tie with 1991 as the 33 rd warmest October on record. A warmer October took place just three years ago when a 59.9 state average temperature ranked as the 5 th warmest October in the last 116 years of record. Before that the warmest October was 57.2 in 2000, good for 24 th place. Daily average temperatures overall last month were well balanced with 15 warm days, 15 cool days, and one day right at normal temperature. Daily average temperatures were more than 10 above normal on 5 days but never more than 10 below normal this October. The highest recorded temperature of the month was 92 at Stendal on October 11 th while the coldest was 44 at Angola, Lagrange, and Plymouth on October 29 th. Severe weather occurred on two days this month but neither brought drought busting rains. On October 13 th high winds and small hail covered a small area of central Indiana and produced local damage. In contrast the mega-storm of October 26 th impacted nearly two thirds of the country and produced 9 confirmed tornadoes, high winds, and hail across Indiana. The intensity and scope of this storm was historic and equivalent to a category-3 hurricane on land according to some scientists. At least 50 reports of damage in Indiana were received by the National Weather Service during this event. Some of the more significant damage reports can be found in the weekly narrative section below. The heavier October rain totals were found in south central and far northwest Indiana (see maps following the weekly narratives). Rainfall this month averaged 1.1 inch to 1.2 inch north to south across the state, which is only 40% of the normal October precipitation. The Indiana dry spot was Auburn in the northeast which measured just 0.32 inch for the month. In the northwest corner of the state the CoCoRaHS observer in Schererville found 3.50 inches in the rain gauge, the highest October total in Indiana. The prize for the highest one day amount goes to New Pekin which reported 2.28 inches on October 27 th. The state average October 2010 rainfall total of 1.16 inch ties 1896 as the 11 th driest October on record in Indiana. One must look back 46 years to find the most recent October which was drier than 2010, a state average 0.44 inch in 1964 which ranks as the 4 th driest on record. The record driest October was in 1908 when a meager 0.35 inch amount was noted.

2 The light October rainfall barely made a dent in the ongoing Indiana drought. At the start of October 80% of Indiana was impacted by various intensities of drought. At the end of the month all but a few miles inland of Lake Michigan was in drought status according to the National Drought Monitor, or all but 1% of the state land area. Much of Indiana finished October in a worse drought status than when the month began. By the end of October 4% of the state area was classified as abnormally dry (D0 status), 44% in moderate drought (D1 status), 37% in severe drought (D2 status), and 14% in extreme drought (D3 class) (see weekly drought maps after the narratives). The very dry soils allowed the fall harvest of corn and soybeans to be completed at a record pace. But parched pastures have gone dormant long ago, forcing livestock producers to feed hay to their cattle several months earlier than usual. Shortages in hay supply are expected this winter which could force higher hay prices. Another concern due to drought is the early pre-winter growth of recently planted winter wheat and its survivability over the cold and possibly extended dry conditions. Details of farmer impacts are also provided in the weekly narratives below. Open burn bans were extended through October in most Indiana counties. Local rainfall led some counties to lift burn bans, but the persistence of dry weather convinced others to reinstate bans already lifted or declare burn bans for the first time. The net result at the end of October was that 59 counties had open burn bans in effect, one more than the 58 counties at the start of the month, although the mix of counties changed as some added and some lifted burn bans in their area. Details on the week to week open burn ban changes are found in the weekly narratives below. October 1 st 10 th After a cool and damp start bright sunshine and warm summerlike temperatures ramped up quickly this week in Indiana. A fast moving cold front on October 2 nd sacked temperatures to 8 below normal over 3 days along with generally light showers across the state. An upper atmospheric trough gave support to this cool weather early but then a warm ridge pattern rolled in and the transition to sunny and warm conditions was underway. Temperatures climbed steadily the rest of the ten day interval, rising above normal by October 6 th and ending the week at 12 above normal. A second cold front crossed Indiana on October 7 th but this mild air mass originated from the Pacific and did not slow the warming trend in progress. A final cold front approached Indiana a few days later but stalled in Michigan, leaving our summerlike temperatures in place. The early cold equally balanced the late week warmth such that the overall state average temperature for the ten days settled right to normal. Typically in early October daily maximum temperatures would range from 69 in far northern Indiana to 76 in the far southwest. Daily minimums normally vary from 48 to 50 north to south across the state. Rainfall was limited to just two days with precipitation reports on October 2 nd and 3 rd. These totaled to about a quarter inch in northern and central Indiana for the ten days and about a tenth inch across the south. Extreme northern Indiana noted locally heavier amounts, such as in Lake county. The CoCoRaHS observer at Hammond measured 1.01 inch on October 3 rd while St. John noted 0.96 inch and Shererville 0.95 inch that day. For the week this Hammond station totaled 1.20 inch while St. John accumulated 1.06 inch and Highland recorded 1.04 inch, the heaviest amounts in the state. Normally over these ten days about 1.1 inch would be expected throughout Indiana.

3 Such small rainfall totals were not enough to offset worsening drought conditions in Indiana. By the end of the ten day interval all 92 counties were classified to be in some stage of drought, although the severity varied across the state (see drought maps in the last section of this report). About 43% of Indiana is classified in the early stages of drought (D0 class) which generally includes all the northern half of the state. At the opposite extreme about 4% of Indiana, primarily parts of Lawrence, Jackson, and Jennings counties, are newly classified to be in extreme drought (D3 class). Much of the remainder of south central and southeast Indiana, about 24% of the state area, is considered to be in severe drought (D2 class). The remaining 29% of Indiana is classified in moderate drought status (D1 class). Livestock managers, especially in parched southern Indiana, are quite concerned now that pastures have become dormant and water is in limited supply. Cattle are showing signs of stress. Some managers are already feeding hay to livestock to replace pasture grazing, an unusual practice so early in autumn. Winter hay supplies could become scarce when the usual hay feeding season arrives. Some farmers have postponed planting winter wheat on dry ground as it may fail to germinate. Yet the harvest of corn and soybeans continues to advance at a record pace with both crops 80% completed. The previous record corn harvest pace was 74% complete set in 1991 while the previous record soybean pace was at 78% complete at this time in Along with dry pastures farmers are still watchful for field fires. A fire in Madison county started inside a combine on October 10 th and eventually required seven fire departments working more than an hour to control the fire. Fortunately the fire was limited to about 10 acres of a corn field and was stopped before reaching a nearby mobile home park. No one was injured in the fire. As the drought of 2010 continues so does the list of counties in Indiana declaring open burn bans. New bans were enacted by 8 more counties thus far in October including Knox and Warren counties on October 1 st ; Kosciusko, Parke, and Ripley counties on October 4 th; Howard and Pike counties on October 5 th, and Fountain county on October 6 th. These new additions expand the list of Indiana counties with open burn bans to 66 as of October 10 th. No doubt more counties will enact open burn bans if the drought continues to intensify in the weeks ahead. Counties declaring open burn bans as of Oct 10 th

4 October 11 th 17 th Temperatures around Indiana peaked on the first day this week at 13 above normal but then slid each day to arrive at 2 below normal by October 15 th. Not much changed after that as state average temperatures settled in at 1 above normal by the weekend. For the week temperatures averaged 4 above normal. Normal daily maximum temperatures range between 66 in northern Indiana to 74 in the far southwest. Daily minimums typically vary between 45 and 48 across the state this week in October. Isolated areas of Indiana received very welcome significant rainfall about midweek but for most Hoosiers amounts remained on the light side yet again. Weather systems are finally showing some signs of life in our state as three Canadian cold fronts and one Pacific front found their way to Indiana this week. An upper atmospheric trough hung around our region long enough to transport cool pulses of air into our state along with a little more precipitation. Generally light rainfall was measured statewide on three consecutive days starting October 13 th but again generated weekly totals below normal. In northern and central Indiana totals averaged near 0.2 inch with 0.3 inch in the south. Usually this week in October about 0.6 inch would be expected statewide. Some cities were fortunate to receive isolated heavier amounts, including 1.77 inch in Columbus, 1.57 inch at Salem, and 1.52 inch in Kokomo, all recorded on October 14 th by CoCoRaHS observers. These amounts also represent the highest weekly totals in Indiana with just one rain day at these locations. After an absence of more than a month isolated severe storms returned to Indiana on October 13 th bringing thunderstorms, wind, and hail along with the heavier rainfall. High 70 mph winds in Grant county brought down tree limbs and power lines near Marion. Pea size hail was noted at Sweetser while golf ball size hail was observed northeast of Marion. Kokomo in Howard county also reported high winds in thunderstorms. In far southern Indiana quarter size hail was reported near Chandler in Warrick county. The scattered heavy storms covered just a small part of Indiana. The lighter showers in midweek were of little help in solving wide spread dry soil conditions but did favor the continued record harvest progress. According to the Indiana Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) corn harvest continued at its record pace, ahead of 1991, with about 86% of the crop harvested. Soybean harvest pace is in a tie with 1987 at 90% complete. While some northern Indiana farmers have finished planting winter wheat several southern Indiana farmers are hesitant to begin planting due to the continued lack of soil moisture. Pastures remain in poor shape forcing some farmers to continue feeding hay to livestock far in advance of the normal December start. The NASS office weekly survey found that 92% of the topsoil in Indiana is rated at short to very short in soil moisture while 90% of subsoil is rated in this condition. The National Drought Monitor maps the intensity of the drought by region of Indiana (see drought maps in the last section of this report). Overall the drought intensified this week with an additional 9% of the state moving beyond abnormally dry (D0 class) status into more serious categories. The area coverage of extreme drought (D3 class) remains the same as a week ago at 4% of Indiana, including Jackson county and parts of surrounding counties. The coverage of severe drought (D2

5 class) has increased this week to include far southwest Indiana. About one-third of the state is now in the severe drought class and includes the area generally south of a line from Mount Vernon to Greencastle to Liberty. Another 28% of Indiana is classified in moderate drought (D1 class) and includes the area north of the severe drought area and south of a line from Cayuga to Marion to Portland. A new area of moderate drought has evolved this week in northeastern Indiana and includes parts of Whitley, Noble, Elkhart, Kosciusko, St Joseph, and Marshall counties. The remaining 35% of Indiana, most of the northern third, is in early drought status (D0 class). Additional counties have enacted open burn bans this week while a few have lifted this restriction where significant rain has fallen. These counties have newly enacted burn bans this week: Starke on October 11 th ; Putnam on October 12 th ; Adams, Marshall, and Vigo on October 13 th, and Grant and Whitley on October 14 th. Four counties have lifted open burn bans, the first to do so since the drought began: Kosciusko on October 11 th ; Boone on October 12 th ; Henry on October 13 th, and Delaware county on October 15 th. The total number of Indiana counties with open burn bans in effect is now 69 as of October 17 th. Counties declaring open burn bans as of Oct 17 th October 18 th 24 th Daily temperatures held rather stable and near normal this week until a dramatic warm up took place on the final day. Precipitation was definitely not normal as yet another dry week extended the autumn drought in Indiana. State average temperatures varied within 3 of normal each day until the week end when temperatures soared to 14 above normal in just one day. Overall for the week temperatures averaged about 2 above normal. Daily maximum temperatures in mid October typically range from about 61 to 69 north to south across the state. Minimums normally vary between 43 and 45 this time of year. Only one weak cold front passed through Indiana on October 21 st, displacing a Pacific air mass over Indiana. Late in the week a warm air surge suddenly lifted Indiana temperatures as the Bermuda ridge was back to play its part in Indiana weather. The lack of fronts this week was reflected in the very low rainfall amounts. Just a few hundreths of an inch of rain fell on average at the very start and end of the week, totaling a meager one tenth inch on average across northern and central Indiana and a couple hundreths across the south. Such totals are far below the normal 0.65 inch

6 expected in northern and central Indiana and 0.9 inch in southern Indiana this week. The highest one day and weekly total for Indiana in the CoCoRaHS network was 0.54 inch in Demotte and 0.53 inch in nearby Wheatfield. The continued scarcity of rainfall has been hard on newly planted winter wheat. The Indiana Agricultural Statistics Office reports that while planting of winter wheat is almost complete in northern and central Indiana, germination and emergence have suffered due to the lack of soil moisture. Harvesting of both corn and soybeans is 96% complete, far ahead of average progress. Moisture content of harvested corn and soybeans is exceptional, averaging about 13.5% and 10.0% respectively, requiring little additional drying before storage. But water supplies for livestock remains a concern as many ponds and streams have dried up. Pastures are in very poor shape requiring many farmers to feed hay as an early supplement. The soil moisture survey rates topsoil and subsoil moisture as 94% short or very short this week. The intensity and areal coverage of the drought is virtually unchanged from a week ago according to the National Drought Monitor (see drought maps in the last section of this report). The exception is extreme northwest Indiana within 12 miles of the Lake Michigan shore which is no longer classified in drought status and includes just 1% of the Hoosier state. The area coverage of extreme drought (D3 class) remains at 4% of Indiana, including Jackson county and parts of surrounding counties. One-third of the state continues in severe drought (D2 class) and includes areas generally south of a line from Mount Vernon to Greencastle to Liberty. Another 28% of Indiana is classified in moderate drought (D1 class). This class includes the area north of the severe drought area and south of a line from Cayuga to Marion to Portland. A second area of moderate drought is found in northeastern Indiana and includes parts of Whitley, Noble, Elkhart, Kosciusko, St Joseph, and Marshall counties. Most of the northern third of Indiana, excluding the new drought free lake region, claims another one-third of the state and is considered abnormally dry (D0 class). The enactment of open burn bans may have hit its peak in Indiana as of this week. Four additional counties have enacted open burn bans while four others have lifted this restriction. With no net change from last week the number of counties with open burn bans remains at 69 as of October 24 th. The four counties with newly enacted bans are: Newton on October 18 th ; Dearborn on October 19 th ; Fulton on October 20 th, and St Joseph on October 21 st. These four counties have lifted open burn ban restrictions: Spencer and Wabash on October 18 th ; Tippecanoe on October 21 st, and Madison county on October 22 nd. While the danger of wild fires certainly continues, the number of events has decreased. The only significant field fire in the news this week burned a dozen acres of land just west of Ligonier on October 20 th. Counties declaring open burn bans as of Oct 24 th

7 October 25 th 31 st A near record breaking storm with high winds and multiple tornadoes on October 26 th interrupted a rather quiet October. The unique storm signaled a dramatic change in air mass over Indiana, from unusual warmth early in the week to subnormal temperatures the last half of the week. Daily average temperatures began at 16 above normal before sliding to 9 above normal as the big storm hit. After October 26 th much colder air rushed into Indiana in two waves behind the storm. Temperatures fell to 5 below normal within a day. The bottom was reached at 7 below the normal as the month and week came to an end. Overall for the final week of October state average temperatures were 2 above normal. Daily normal maximum temperatures typically vary from 61 to 69 north to south across Indiana. Minimums normally range between 42 and 44 across the state this time of year. A strong upper atmospheric ridge over the eastern part of the country pumped very warm air from the southeastern states into Indiana as the week began. The ridge migrated eastward as two upper low pressure systems, one in Ontario and a second in South Dakota, merged over Minnesota creating a single supersized storm system. An unusually fast jet stream over the upper Midwest helped intensify the mega-storm, comparable to a category-3 hurricane but over land, with one of the lowest surface pressures ever observed in the nation when not originating as a tropical storm. The mega-storm eventually impacted two-thirds of the country before it exited. Indiana became squeezed into a narrow sector of unstable warm air, resulting in two days of widespread yet light rainfall. As the long sweeping cold front, hundreds of miles in advance and east of the mega-storm itself, passed through Indiana on October 27 th, a third to a half inch of rain fell on average across the state. The long cold front split in two. The cold air itself was behind the second cold front which crossed Indiana on October 28 th. Essentially no rain fell the rest of the week in Indiana as a high pressure system followed the mega-storm. For the week rainfall totals averaged nearly 0.6 inch in northern and central Indiana, and about 0.8 inch in the south. These totals are slightly above the 0.5 inch statewide normals this week, a situation which hasn t occurred in many weeks. The CoCoRaHS observer in New Pekin noted the highest single day and weekly total rainfall this week with 2.28 inches measured on October 27 th. Lake county observers in St John and Merrillville noted 1.66 inch and 1.61 inch on October 25 th. The mega-storm on October 26 th produced nine confirmed tornadoes in northwest, northeast, and east central Indiana. In Porter county an EF0 tornado caused outbuilding damage in Malden while

8 an EF1 tornado in Wanatah touched down with 90 mph winds. In the eastern part of the state an EF1 tornado near Upland touched down with estimated speeds near 100 mph. In northeast Indiana an EF1 tornado traveled 0.6 mile on the ground at Bracken. Wind speeds in an EF1 tornado near Peabody spun at nearly 100 mph. Winds in two other EF0 tornados in Oswego and Luther reached approximately 80 mph. In Wabash an EF0 tornado touched down with speeds in the 85 mph range. An EF0 tornado touched down 10 miles northeast of Greenfield and stayed on the ground for about a half mile. Several out buildings were destroyed and a home had major damage. Finally in Kokomo an unconfirmed tornado was spotted that damaged a shed and houses when trees fell down. None of these tornadoes resulted in serious injuries or death. High winds during the mega-storm caused numerous trees to fall on roadways and power lines. Thousands of residents were without electricity until it was restored on October 27 th. Severe thunderstorms cut power to at least 60,000 people. There were at least 44 minor incidents around the state reported to the National Weather Service which are not listed here. But there were more serious events. In northern Indiana major wind damage occurred to a home in Kouts and destroyed old factory buildings in Laporte. When trees and power lines came down in Bippus, a home was severely damaged there. Several structures were damaged in Montpelier and in Bluffton a barn roof was ripped off. Large trees fell and damaged several houses and destroyed two barns in Columbia City. In Grabill a barn was destroyed and a propane tank lifted off its foundation. A house was damaged and a silo completely destroyed in Peabody while telephone poles were snapped by the wind in Remington. High winds persisted the next day and played part in an accident at Notre Dame University in which a student videotaping a team practice died when the lift he was standing on fell over in wind gusts. High winds in central Indiana caused havoc with trucks on the highways. In Elwood, Lebanon, Whiteland, and Jamestown semi-trailers were blown off or overturned on interstates and major highways. Meanwhile in Greenfield multiple power transformers blew up during high winds and a person was injured by debris from a partially built hog barn that was severely damaged. In southeast Indiana Brownstown residents saw evidence of cloud rotation during the storm. A Scottsburg resident lost the bet when a roof was blown off on Double or Nothing Road. The Indiana Agricultural Statistics Service notes that the rainfall early this week was very helpful for the emergence and growth of newly planted winter wheat. Yet more rain is badly needed as this moisture was quickly absorbed by the extremely dry soils. Both topsoil and subsoil moisture were rated 93% short or very short in their weekly survey. Corn and soybean harvest has continued at record progress and is 98% complete. Farmers have had more time than usual this autumn to complete more fall tillage and fertilizer application. Pastures remain in poor condition and hay normally saved for winter feeding of livestock is being used. Hay shortages this winter are a definite possibility. After a week of little change the Indiana drought of 2010 has resumed its ways to increased intensity. The National Drought Monitor shows a large increase to 14% of Indiana now classified in extreme drought (D3 class), generally the area south of an Aurora to Monroe Reservoir to

9 Boonville line. The remainder of the southern half of Indiana is classified in severe drought (D2 class) which makes up another 37% of the total state area. The northern halves of Lake, Porter, and Laporte county continue drought free, the same status as a week ago. The southern halves of these counties along with Newton county are classified as abnormally dry (D0 class), while the remainder of the northern half of Indiana has been reclassified this week into the moderate drought category (D1 class), 44% of the Hoosier state area. The movement of much of the northern half of the state from D1 to D2 class indicates the worsening drought status in this part of Indiana compared to just a week ago. The weather mix of stormy weather followed by a resumption of dry weather this week has caused a similar mixed response among Indiana counties deciding whether to reinstate, continue, or rescind open burn bans. Three counties have reinstated open burn bans this week while 13 others have decided to end their bans. Counties which have reinstated bans are: Henry on October 27 th, and Boone and Spencer on November 1 st. These counties have lifted open burn bans: Starke on October 25 th ; Adams and Hancock on October 26 th ; Knox, Shelby, and Vigo on October 27 th ; Grant, Randolph, Washington, and Wayne on October 28 th, and Blackford, St Joseph, and Sullivan on October 29 th. The end tally shows a net loss of 10 counties with open burn bans. The revised count of counties with open burn bans is now 59 as of the last day of October. Counties declaring open burn bans as of Oct 31 st October Temperature Region Temperature Normal Deviation Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State

10 Precipitation Region Precipitation Normal Deviation Percent of Normal Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State Autumn 2010 to date (September - October) Temperature Region Temperature Normal Deviation Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State Precipitation Region Precipitation Normal Deviation Percent of Normal Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State

11 2010 Annual to date Temperature Region Temperature Normal Deviation Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State Precipitation Region Precipitation Normal Deviation Percent of Normal Northwest North Central Northeast West Central Central East Central Southwest South Central Southeast State

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15 Drought Summary from the U.S. Drought Monitor Below is a drought summary for the state of Indiana from the U.S. drought monitor. Areas in white are not experiencing any drought. Yellow areas are abnormally dry, but not entirely considered a drought. Drought begins when the moisture levels become more severe, with beige, orange, red, and brown indicating increasing levels of drought (moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional, respectively). The table below indicates how much of the state is not under drought conditions, and also how much of the state is under drought conditions from its respective column upwards. For example, October 5 th has 20.40% of Indiana under no drought, and 79.60% of Indiana under at least D0 through D4 drought status. This is followed by 47.70% as D1 through D4 status. To obtain the amount that is D0 status, simply subtract the D1-D4 column from the D0-D4 column, thus giving you the percentage of area with abnormally dry conditions (31.90%). Please note, however, that these areas are not exact, and much of this drought map has been created from reports throughout the state and estimation, so use this information as a general view rather than for specifics.

16 October 5th Drought Summary

17 October 12 th Drought Summary

18 October 19 th Drought Summary

19 October 26 th Drought Summary

20 November 2 nd Drought Summary