Arctic Information Infrastructure: The International Arctic Research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks

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1 Arctic Information Infrastructure: The International Arctic Research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks Hajo Eicken International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, AK, USA

2 International Arctic Research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks Roughly 90 Scientists, analysts, students, professional staff that span the physical, biological, and social sciences (ca. 1/4 w/ PhD) Roughly 150 research projects Major research units within IARC: - Alaska Climate Science Center - Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy - Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning - Cooperative Institute for Alaska Research - Alaska Fire Science Consortium - Center for Arctic Policy Studies

3 Key IARC program elements & activities (i) Analysis, synthesis & provision of Arctic climate information, incl. Arctic Ocean hydrographic information for scientists, stakeholders & public; (ii) Support & coordination of Arctic system modeling and environmental prediction providing a nexus for process parameterization, model validation & assessment; (iii)service as a gateway or Arctic Climate Science Coordination Center for the Arctic research community through conferences, secretariat functions, & workshops.

4 Transformative Arctic Ocean change Changes and trends in Arctic sea ice extent Major changes in the ice-covered Eurasian Basin: NABOS Long-term changes in length of operations season IARC Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative Conclusions

5 Sept sea-ice concentration trends ( ) Large swath of reduced summer ice concentation in Pacific Arctic sector Impacts on coastal communities & infrastructure

6 U.S. Navy Arctic Roadmap (2014 & updates) Near term ( 2020): - Undersea & air presence - Surf vessel presence in open water Mid term ( 2030): - Be ready to respond to contingencies/emer gencies Far term (2030 ) - Operate deliberately for sustained periods as needed (CDR K. Taylor, 2017)

7 March sea-ice concentration trends ( ) Regional contrasts Trends dominated by marginal seas

8 Transformative Arctic Ocean change Changes and trends in Arctic sea ice extent Major changes in the ice-covered Eurasian Basin: NABOS Long-term changes in length of operations season IARC Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative Conclusions

9 Nansen-Amundsen Basin Observing System (NABOS) Igor Polyakov (IARC) lead in collaboration with numerous Arctic & non- Arctic research centers Sustained observations (2002-today) to capture transformative Arctic Ocean change in the Eurasian Basin Oceanic drivers of Arctic sea ice loss & shoaling of Atlantic water layer Polyakov et al. (2017) Science, 356:285ff.

10 Nansen-Amundsen Basin Observing System (NABOS) Oceanic drivers of Arctic sea ice loss & shoaling of Atlantic water layer Polyakov et al. (2017) Science, 356:285ff.

11 Nansen-Amundsen Basin Observing System (NABOS) Atlantification of Eurasian Basin Winter convection (WC) penetrates through Cold Halocline Layer (CHL) releasing Atlantic Water (AW) heat Heat flux increase by up to one order of magnitude explains cm loss in ice thickness since 2007 Polyakov et al. (2017) Science, 356:285ff.

12 Nansen-Amundsen Basin Observing System (NABOS) Eastern Eurasian Basin: Near inertial currents & associated current shear increased 3 to 4- fold since 2004 Transition from doublediffusive to turbulent mixing environment Polyakov et al. (unpublished)

13 Transformative Arctic Ocean change Changes and trends in Arctic sea ice extent Major changes in the ice-covered Eurasian Basin: NABOS Long-term changes in length of operations season IARC Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative Conclusions

14 The past & present state of sea ice: Historical Sea Ice Atlas Based on historical ice charts and satellite data Joint effort by NOAA, AOOS, SNAP, ACCAP & IARC/UAF Includes historical whale ship log data from 1840s to 1920s, as published by Mahoney et al. (Arctic, vol 64(4), 2011)

15 September 1955 September 2016 Reduced summer ice extent Increased fetch & solar heating of surface ocean Greater wave heights & coastal heat transfer Impacts on coastal dynamics & retreat Reductions in multiyear ice seaiceatlas.snap.uaf.edu

16 2007-today: 3 months of open water (<30% ice conc.) 1850s 1 months of open water (<30% ice conc.) seaiceatlas.snap.uaf.edu Reduced summer ice extent September ice conditions at Chukchi Sea oil & gas lease sites Top: September ice concentration note near-absence of ice in 2000s Bottom: Duration of open water season (<30% ice conc.) note increase in ice-free season

17 A-OK: Arctic Alaska Observatory and Knowledge Hub Barrow Wainwright Point Lay Point Hope Kotzebue Wales Nome Kaktovik Steering Committee representative Currently providing ice condition reports & photos Fall 2016 observations Future observations Established to build capacity in sharing information from community-based observations on cryosphere change Conducted by northern Alaska communities Knowledge Hub to provide tools & access to data of relevance to communities

18 Key observations driven by information needs & environmental knowledge of Alaska Indigenous ice experts Eicken et al., Polar Geogr., 2014; Joe Leavitt, Barrow Billy Adams, Barrow Community expert observations (>5000 daily logs)

19 Break-up & freeze-up trends & variability in the coastal Chukchi & Beaufort Seas Break-up/freezeup climatology for coastal Chukchi & Beaufort Seas from passive microwave satellite data Definition of freeze-up/breakup based on ice uses/hazards in coastal areas Johnson & Eicken, Elementa, 2016 Freeze-up start sikuliaq Freeze-up end

20 Trend towards shortened ice season in coastal Chukchi & Beaufort Seas Linear trend: - By 2030 open water season doubled relative to By year 2100 open water season yearround Johnson & Eicken, Elementa, 2016 Transition season ice regime

21 R/V Sikuliaq UAF College of Fisheries & Ocean Sciences operated 2017 cruises Most technological advanced vessel in U.S. university fleet Photo: UAF/Rapp Marine

22 Transformative Arctic Ocean change Changes and trends in Arctic sea ice extent Major changes in the ice-covered Eurasian Basin: NABOS Long-term changes in length of operations season IARC Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative Conclusions

23 Environmental prediction at IARC Several units within IARC have predictive capacity Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy, Climate Science Center, Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning, individual research groups Partnering with NOAA to identify research to operations candidates Goal: Provide comprehensive experimental prediction service to test models, guide observations, improve communication Focus beyond current NOAA product suite: snow cover, sea ice, freeze-up/break-up timing, vegetative metrics (& wildfire) Prototype activities: ACCAP Analog Forecasts; North Slope industry ice road support; USN Arctic Submarine Lab ICEX support

24 Seasonal scale analog forecasting NOAA/climate.gov El Niño/La Niña: Oceanatmosphere interaction in (sub)tropical Pacific drives U.S. weather patterns

25 Seasonal forecasts from monthly climate analogs Mar-May mb height Based on statistical pattern matching Look for matches in red box Base forecast for target region on observed evolution in years with best match

26 Predicting the September sea ice minimum May SST in N-Pacific predictive skill» Explore on your own:» 0w.com/analogs. php

27 National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) seasonal modeling & forecast system 9-month ensemble forecasts from multiple GCMs coordinated by NOAA Monthly forecasts of atmosphere and ocean variables available 6-hr data available for subseasonal processes hindcast data available for calibration & testing NMME output & single column model to predict ice road season in Prudhoe Bay area NOAA CFS: Oct forecast Dec m Temperature Anomaly ( C) Temperature anomaly ( C) Ice Thickness (m) St. dev. of ensembles (m)

28 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) SIPN as an international collaborative space to evaluate, discuss, guide, and synthesize sea ice prediction and observing activities IARC focuses on targeted observations, analog forecasts & is lead institution for renewal proposal

29 Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Model evaluation: Brier scores (0 perfect to 1 erroneous forecast) for some SIPN contributors (provided by E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington)

30 Support of USN ICEX Ice Camp 2018 Partnership with Ukpeaġvik Iñupiat Corporation (UIC) to provide support services to USN Arctic Submarine Lab Seasonal to synoptic predictions & outlooks tied in with on-ice evaluation & support services Camp Nautilus, 2014 (Photo: USN/Lockheed Martin)

31 Support of USN ICEX Ice Camp 2018 Partnership with Ukpeaġvik Iñupiat Corporation (UIC) to provide support services to USN Arctic Submarine Lab Seasonal to synoptic predictions & outlooks tied in with on-ice evaluation & support services Uniform ice floe compression: 10 cm of shortening over 4 km = 2.5x10-5 strain Groundbased Portable Radar Interferometer Multi-antenna coherent radar Ku-band: 16 GHz, 1.9 cm Capable of detecting mm-scale changes in distance to target

32 Conclusions Transformative Arctic Ocean change underway Range of activities expands into Arctic on short time scales driven by regional & global drivers Effective response & anticipation requires effective prediction systems & sustained (autonomous) observations Arctic operations by necessity highly collaborative

33 IARC/UAF Information Infrastructure Advanced research into Arctic environmental variability & change Data & output from observing & prediction systems Tools to extract value from data & predictions Expertise & networks to transition from research to operations Tracking rapid change & operationally relevant processes Improving predictions on (sub)seasonal to multiannual & decadal time scales Creating a solid foundation for physical infrastructure planning & development

34 InSAR to support operations in more dynamic Northstar Island coastal ice environments Northstar ice road Ice failure events Utilizing synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR) to assess the stability of the ice around Northstar Island and ice road Developed an inverse model to extract deformation mode and strain from phase values Goal: To develop an approach to assess ice stability of sea ice to support and ensure safety for on-ice operations

35 Sustained observing activities in U.S. Maritime Arctic by sector Eicken et al., 2016, Oceans 16

36 Maritime incidents & threats at Pt. Barrow Incidents Threats Responses Dates Landfast ice breakout event Loss of life & property Assess & track breakout, support evacuation & rescue April 2014 Ice entrapment & beaching of sailing vessel Ice pressure, vessel beset & grounded Assess early warning approaches, support evacuation & rescue July 2014 Fuel barge ice entrapment Ice pressure, threat of fuel spill Predict barge drift, assess risk of spill & salvage options Boat rescue w/strong offshore currents Loss of life & property Support July 2017

37 The Pt. Barrow Utqiaġvik sea-ice observatory Remote sensing (kmscale) Coastal radar (sub-km scale) Thickness and topography (sub-km scale) Ice mass-balance site (10s m-scale) Moored oceanographic instruments (sub-km scale) Local ice observations (J. Leavitt, B. Adams, and many others) eloka-arctic.org/sizonet; seaice.alaska.edu/gi M. Druckenmiller et al., CRST, 2009

38 Sea-ice projections: Decadal scale Wang & Overland (GRL, 2012): 7 most realistic models give nearly icefree Arctic (<1M km2) for 2030s ( ) Defining loss of summer sea ice: Ice edge typically defined by 15-30% concentration contour <1 M km2 considered effectively ice-free

39 Dynamically downscale to include more local detail GCM/reanalysis data are often too coarse for local planning: downscaling helps provide the scale of information needed WRF downscaling for Alaska: 20km daily temperature, precipitation, humidity, winds, and radiative and turbulent fluxes (Bieniek et al. 2016, JAMC) suitable for evaluation of extremes and complex processes Downscaled CCSM4 RCP8.5 Nov-Mar rain-onsnow days/decade change Completed Downscaled Products: ERA-Interim (observations): GFDL-CM3 and NCAR-CCSM4 (CMIP5 future scenario) RCP8.5: Contact SNAP or P Bieniek for more info! Example uses: Rain-on-snow/icing events (Bieniek et al. 2017, in prep) Climate change attribution of fire danger (Partain et al. 2016, BAMS) Temperature/Precipitation extremes (Lader et al. 2017, JAMC) Glacier modeling (Kienholz et al. 2017, Frontiers in Earth Science)