Weather and ice information as a tool for arctic marine and offshore services
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1 Weather and ice information as a tool for arctic marine and offshore services World Meteorological Organization Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services President & CEO Tero Vauraste (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 1
2 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 2 AGENDA Company overview Our customers and their needs what do we do? Weather services as a planning tool Long, mid and short term planning Baltic current services Arctic new service needs Alaskan operation Overview and requirements Summary and conclusions
3 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 3 We are a leading producer of Baltic icebreaking, arctic ice management and offshore services. Arctia Shipping Ltd is a shipping company, which provides icebreaking, ice management, arctic offshore, oil recovery and archipelago commuter services.
4 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 4 Customers and Arctia Baltic icebreaking The end users are the Finnish industry and shipping companies The operation is based on the agreements between Arctia and the Finnish Transport Agency 5+2 icebreakers assignments / year operating days / year 150 persons Turnover +/-30 m Global arctic offshore Customers are international energy and construction companies 3 multipurpose vessels 150 persons operating days / year Turnover 20-40m
5 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 5 Customers and Arctia Oil Spill Response Client: European Maritime Safety Agency EMSA Customer potential: The Finnish environmental authorities International oil companies Conversions of the current fleet and newbuildings Turnover 0,6-0,8m / y Archipelago traffic Customer is Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment End users are archipelago inhabitants and tourists No fees for the users 11 vessels vehicles / y passengers / y 50 persons Turnover 7m / y
6 The Icebreakers icebreaker and and multipurpose icebreakers vessel fleet (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 6
7 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 7 Customers and their needs The majority of customers are either oil and gas or offshore companies Participation in ice tests in Spitsbergen area Operations in western Greenland area Operations in eastern Greenland area Operations in Alaska EXAMPLES OF ASSIGNMENTS icebreaking Ice management offshore construction hoistings operation as mother ship - diving anchor handling pipe laying cable work
8 The need for weather services is to avoid this from taking place (C) Arctia Shipping ltd
9 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 9 Long term, mid term and short term planning Long term planning Climate developments during the forthcoming decades Ice conditions development globally and locally Fleet investment is a long term decision for the next 3-4 decades We need to foresee the developments in order to invest into a correct fleet type Example: FMI-Arctia climate change study
10 Longterm planning Baltic Ice coverage predictions The Finnish Meterological institute has made a reserach in autumn 2010 for Arctia concerning the proposed development of the Baltic Sea ice coverage The purpose of the study is to evaluate the future needs of next icebreaker generation in light of the proposed ice conditions (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 101
11 Research model The study was based on the temperature sum model Historical data was based on years and The future scenarios were based on different scenarios of global emission reduction The future modelling looked into years (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 111
12 The maximum ice coverage Very mild Jääpeitteen laajuuden jakauma Mild Average Severe Very severe Osuus (%) Jääpeitteen laajuus (km 2 ) (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 121
13 The changes in the ice thickness The average maximum ice thickness based on temperature sum model within the coastal region in (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 131
14 The average thickness through the next decades (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 141
15 - Ice coverage: Conclusions - The severe winters will be less during the next decades - After 2040 there are no more severe winters -The amount of mild and very mild winters will increase -Ice thickness: - After 2020 the average ice thickness will be cm lower than during After 2040 the average ice thickness will be cm lower than during The Southern Baltic will no longer have an ice coverage (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 151
16 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 16 Long term, mid term and short term planning Mid term planning The most difficult part with a high significance Fleet and resource planning for an operational period of 1-6 months within the operation area Challenging to forecast, but of high importance No pratctical solutions found yet High significance in resource allocation
17 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 17 Long term, mid term and short term planning Short term planning Predictions of the operational conditions for the next 0-7 days Weather, ice, drifts, (current) Resource allocation and traffic restrictions Preparation of the fleet and the crews Good models in use for the Baltic Sea Lack of infrastructure for forecasting in the arctic area How to bring the good models to the arctic and antarctic Weather conditions Wetaher and ice conditions and their predicted developments Drift of icebergs
18 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 18 Sweden Finland
19 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 19 Sweden Finland
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23 A practical approach Case study SHELL ALASKA MARINE SUPPORT PLAN 2012 The operation, ice conditions and required weather services (C) Arctia Shipping ltd
24 OVERVIEW 2012 History In 1980 s Shell Exploration drilled : - 25 Wells Beaufort - 4 Wells in Chukchi 2012 Plan Drilling Season 1 st July to 31 st October Wells: 3 Chukchi 2 Beaufort Noble Discoverer, source, Kulluk, source, (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 24
25 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 25 LOCATIONS & DISTANCES ARCTIC OCEAN CHUKCHI SEA BARRO WAINWRIGHT W POINT HOPE BEAUFORT SEA DEADHORSE PORT CLARENCE NOME ANCHORAGE Dutch to Beaufort = 6.5 days/9kts Dutch to Chukchi = 5 days/9kts DUTCH HARBOR
26 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 26 Primary Ice Management Nordica / Fennica Length 116m / 380ft Ice Class DNV POLAR 10 20,400hp BP 234T
27 Changes in conditions in the Alaskan area No fast ice during the summer Drifting ice fields and icebergs Satellite image forecasting? Source: Cryosphere today (C) Arctia Shipping ltd
28 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 281 Beaufort Sea Gyro brings multi year ice during summer season towards the northern coastline Large floes of sea ice and icebergs during summer Sea ice and iceberg drift forecasting 0-7 days First year/multiyear Beaufort Sea
29 ICEBERG TOWING (C) Arctia Shipping ltd
30 ICEFIELD PROTECTION AND FLUSHING (C) Arctia Shipping ltd
31 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd 31 Summary and conclusions Three dimensions of forecasting needed for resource and operational planning and safety Long term decades Mid term seasonal Short term 0-14 days Baltic models to be multiplied to the arctic areas Ice charts Satellite images Icing Weather and ice field+iceberg movement forecasting First year / multiyear Ice packing predictions Drift calculations in SAR and spill situations
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