HAZUS-MH: A Predictable Hurricane Risk Assessment Tool for the City of Houston and Harris County
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1 HAZUS-MH: A Predictable Hurricane Risk Assessment Tool for the City of Houston and Harris County Presented by Melvin G. Spinks, P.E., President Annie Ding, PhD, GISP October 29, 2008 Rice University
2 Contents Overview of HAZUS-MH Harris County hurricane and flood risk assessment Real-time supporting disaster operations during Hurricane Rita, Tropical Storm Edouard,, and Hurricane Ike City of Houston Wind Reporting Tool Hurricane Ike ground truth
3 Overview of HAZUS-MH Developed by FEMA under contract with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) A GIS-based application package Predicts loss estimates based on current scientific knowledge of the effects of hurricane winds, floods, and earthquakes
4 Overview of HAZUS-MH Estimates debris and shelter needs Provides tools to model mitigation strategies Can be used to predict wind damage based on National Hurricane Center real-time Hurricane Advisories Can be used to support disaster event preparation & post storm recovery
5 Hurricane Wind and Flood Risk Assessment for Harris County County Wide Risk Assessment (Level 1) Hurricane Wind and Flood risk analysis using default building inventory & LiDAR DEM Watershed Analysis A Level 2 analysis for a pilot watershed using local building inventory data & LiDAR DEM Evaluation of HAZUS-MH with HEC-FDA
6 Harris County Hurricane Wind Risk HAZUS-MH Level 1 Modeled Category Building Stock Exposure Expected Building Damage (count) Essential Facility Functionality Building-Related Economic Loss (Million Dollars) Total Hospitals Schools Total Debris (Million Cubic Yards) Fire Stations Police Stations Building Loss Business Interruption # People Needing Short Term Shelter Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale $244 Billion (868,176 Buildings) 1,168 16, , ,977 1,108 16, , , ,898 12, % 99% 36% 0% 100% 100% 12% 0% 100% 100% 14% 0% 100% 100% 24% 0% ,101 51, ,560 39, , , ,859 62, ,522 56,134
7 Level 2 Analysis White Oak Bayou Watershed Area: 111 sq mi Population: 416,000 Census Blocks: 5,221 Local appraisal data LiDAR DEM (15 x 15 ) Using FIT TSARP Cross Sections
8 Level 2 Analysis Comparing Analysis Results Economic Loss Economic Loss in Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Level1 Level2 Residential HEC- FDA $0 0.2% Flood Frequency $500 Commercial 500-Year Floodplain FIT vs. TSARP TSARP: Tropical Storm Allison Recovery Project Economic Loss in Millions $400 $300 $200 $100 Level1 Level2 HEC- FDA HEC-FDA: USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center Flood Reduction Analysis $0 0.2% Flood Frequency
9 HAZUS-MH Supports Disaster Operations During Rita, Edouard,, and Ike
10 Ike Facts Made landfall on September 13, 2:10 am Landfall as Category 2 at Port Bolivar Winds of 110 mph Effected 25 counties and parish in Texas and Louisiana Third most costliest hurricane to ever hit the United States 31.5 billion estimated damage ($27 billion US coastal area) Wikipedia
11 HAZUS-MH runs begin at 10 am on Sept. 10, 2008 Advisory #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 Release Time (CDT) 9/10/08, 12:00 pm 9/10/08, 5:00 pm 9/11/08, 9:00 am 9/11/08, 11:00 am 9/11/08, 5:00 pm 9/11/08, 10:00 pm 9/12/08, 7:00 am 9/12/08, 10:00 am 9/12/08, 5:00 pm 9/12/08, 10:00 pm Ike Economic Damage Advisories were released to Elected Officials, Public Officials, and Emergency management Agencies
12 Hurrevac Advisory #38 IKE 9/10/ :00AM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $0.6M in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Hurrevac Advisory #46 IKE 9/12/ :00AM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $15 billion in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Hurrevac Advisory #49A IKE 9/14/2008 4:00PM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $9 billion in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties
13 Houstonhidefromthewind.org City of Houston Wind Data Website
14 Hurricane Ike Ground Truth - Aftermath Model Validation Wind Field Debris Shelters Building Damages
15 Ike Landfall WeatherFlow Sensor & Florida Coastal Monitor Program Tower Location
16 Observed Peak Gust Wind WeatherFlow Sensor & Florida Coastal Monitor Program Tower Location
17 Kemah Max Gust: 75 mph Max Mean: 54 mph Precision WeatherFlow sensor installed, calibrated, and maintained by WeatherFlow
18 Pierce Junction Max Gust: 86 mph Max Mean: 58 mph Precision WeatherFlow sensor installed, calibrated, and maintained by WeatherFlow
19 Modeled Wind Field Peak Gust
20 Wind Data Comparison 140 Observed Wind (mph) y = x R 2 = WeatherFlow Data CFMP Tow er Data Linear Modeled Wind (mph)
21 Tree Debris Modeling with HAZUS-MH Default Data Ground roughness length Tree inventory Stems per acre Tree heights Predominate tree type Collection factor Bulking factor
22 Surveyed 49 Census Tracts
23 Tree Debris Data Comparison Surveyed (Cubic Yard/Household) y = x R 2 = Tree Debris Linear (Tree Modeled (Cubic Yard/Household)
24 Debris Estimation (Million Cubic Yards) Source of Estimation City of Houston Harris County Texas HAZUS-MH Tree Debris USACE HAZUS-MH Other Debris HAZUS-MH (L1) Beaumont Enterprise Debris Picked Up No Data 4.1* No Data 1.4** 8 21 No Data 18.3 No Data *City of Houston project total on 10/15/08: 5.6 million cubic yard; **As of 10/5/08. Harris County refer to areas within county boundary but outside City of Houston limits
25 Future Tree Debris Modeling with Improve Local Data Ground roughness length Tree inventory Stems per acre Tree heights Predominate tree type Collection factor Bulking factor
26 Ike Shelters Shelter Location Number of Residents Number of Shelters Source Austin Convention Center 6,000 "Hurricane Ike Evacuees Move From Austin Shelter", CBS 42 Reporter: Bettie Cross, 9/25 9:29am; San Antonio 4, "S.A. shelters brace for long haul", Web Posted: 09/16/2008 Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex 1, "Thousands of Hurricane Ike evacuees take shelter in Dallas, Tarrant County"; dallas.bizjournals.com; Dallas Business Journal; 9/15/2008 Dallas 1,279 4 "Thousands of Hurricane Ike evacuees take shelter in Dallas, Tarrant County"; dallas.bizjournals.com; Dallas Business Journal; 9/15/2008 Waco 1,650 "Evacuees remain in Waco as Hurricane Ike cleanup continues", Cindy V. Culp, wacotrib.com, 9/16/2008 Greater Houston Area 1, "Red Cross to open shelters after Ike passes", blogs.chron.com, 9/12/2008; "First Lady visits Ike shelter in Houston"; / October 4, 2008; Others 15,456 "Red Cross to open shelters after Ike passes", blogs.chron.com, 9/12/2008; October 4, 2008 Statewide 33, "S.A. shelters brace for long haul", Web Posted: 09/16/2008
27 Ike Building Damages HAZUS-MH estimated Ike wind-induced building damage (Level 1) Texas Statewide Number of Structures: 6.6 million Estimated Damage: 460,000 Value of Structures: $1,328 billion Estimated Damage: $10 billion
28 Ike Building Damages HAZUS-MH estimated windinduced building damage (Level 2*) Harris County Number of Structures: 1.2 million Estimated Damage: 326,000 (27%) Value of Structures: $258 billion Estimated Damage: $5.3 billion (2%) *HAZUS-MH Level 2 analysis based on HCAD 2008 certified data.
29 Summary HAZUS-MH can provide reliable economic damage estimates for communities subject to floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Information can be generated near real-time and also pre- and post-disaster for storm and hurricane events on a county-level. With HAZUS-MH, government officials can better plan safe and secure communities ahead of severe storms.
30 Related Publications Evaluation of HAZUS-MH Flood Model with Local Data and Other Program,, A. Ding, J. F. White, et. al., Natural Hazard Reviews, Vol. 9(1), February Harris County, Texas Uses HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment and Hurricane Preparedness, FEMA Website: City of Houston OEM Wind Data Website:
31 Thank you & Questions
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