Short-Term Job Growth Impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast and Texas
|
|
- Silvester Pearson
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Short-Term Job Growth Impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast and Texas Keith Phillips & Christopher Slijk Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Branch The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
2 Gulf Coast is Large and Economically Important We define the Gulf Coast as the metro areas of Houston, Beaumont- Port Arthur, Corpus Christi and Victoria. This region has 7.7 million people, 3.4 million jobs and produces $556 billion in GDP (3.1 percent of U.S. output), which is 28.2 percent of Texas jobs and 34.5 percent of Texas output. Houston is by far the biggest part of the region, representing 88 percent of regional jobs and 91 percent of regional output. This region tends to get hit with the same large weather events. 2
3 Gulf Coast Region d-maps.com 3
4 There Have Been Seven Large Weather Events to Hit the Region Since 1975 Best to study impacts on given region since regions differ in their topography, population density, long-term trends, etc. that affect how they respond Tropical Storm Claudette (July 1979) Hurricane Alicia (Aug. 1983) Southeast Texas Floods (Oct. 1994) Tropical Storm Allison (June 2001) Hurricane Ike (Sept. 2008) Houston Memorial Day Flood (May 2015) Houston Tax Day Flood (Apr. 2016) NOTE: Severe weather events are defined by the NOAA as those causing over $1 billion in damages. 4
5 Past Severe Weather Impacts on Gulf Coast Job Growth Have Been Short-lived Thousands of jobs, SA 4,000 Houston Memorial Day Flood 3,500 Hurricane Ike 3,000 Houston Tax Day Flood 2,500 Hurricane Alicia 1994 Texas Floods Tropical Storm Allison 2,000 1,500 Tropical Storm Claudette 1,000 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 NOTE: Gray bars represent Texas recessions. '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 5
6 Past Severe Weather Impacts on Gulf Coast Job Growth Have Been Short-lived Thousands of jobs, SA 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Hurricane Alicia M/M percent change, SAAR Strike adjustment Telecom Strike -30 Jun-83 Jul-83 Aug-83 Sep-83 Oct-83 Nov-83 Dec M/M percent change, SAAR Texas Floods M/M percent change, SAAR 4 Hurricane Ike Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Tropical Storm Allison M/M percent change, SAAR 4 Tropical Storm Claudette -2-4 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 1,000 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 NOTE: Gray bars represent Texas recessions. '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Houston Tax Day Flood Houston Memorial Day Flood Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 6
7 Hurricane Ike Was a Big Recent Event Occurred in September 2008 at an estimated cost of $34.8 billion. Gulf Coast jobs declined by 29,000 (or 11 percent annualized rate (AR)) percent in September but bounced back by 16,000 (or 6.7 percent AR) in October. This was near peak in business cycle due to decline in oil prices and Great Recession. Best to model impacts to account for normal business cycle impacts. 7
8 Compare Job Growth to What It Would Have Been Without Hurricane Harvey Look at momentum in economy and how size of event impacted job growth in month of hurricane and following months We use simple ARIMA model on growth rates to estimate momentum and then put in variable on direct cost of weather event and lags until no longer statistically relevant also used a 1,-1 dummy for telecom strike in August, September 1983 Model shows statistically significant current month decline followed by three months of significant bounce back 8
9 Harvey s Impact on Gulf Coast Job Growth is Large in September but Rebounds Quickly We use direct cost estimates of $75 and $100 billion In September, instead of gaining 5,000 jobs, the Gulf Coast is now projected to lose between 55,000 and 75,000 jobs (-18 to -23 percent AR) Instead of growing by 3,000 jobs in October and 4,000 jobs in November, jobs grow by 41,000-53,000 (15 to 21 percent AR) in October and 22,000-29,000 (8 to 11 percent AR) in November. December is milder with growth of 9,000 to 11,000 jobs. Forecast for remainder of 2017 prior to the hurricane was for growth of 1.0 percent AR and with Harvey is percent AR. 9
10 Gulf Coast Results Show Sharp Decline in September, Return to Pre-Hurricane Estimates by November Gulf Coast Employment Thousands of jobs, SA 3,480 3,460 3,440 3,420 3,400 3,380 3,360 3,340 Baseline $75 billion $100 billion 3,320 3,300 SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; authors' calculations. 10
11 Impacts on Texas State-level jobs rebound to trend more quickly as jobs may be created in unaffected regions to help with reconstruction. Statewide, instead of job growth of 29,800 in September we now expect job losses of 37,800 to 60,400 (-2.3 to -5.7 percent AR) and instead of jobs growing by 27,400 jobs in October we now expect jobs to grow by 115, ,000 (12-15 percent AR). Forecast for remainder of the year prior to the hurricane was for growth of 2.7 percent and with Harvey is percent. 11
12 Texas Results Show a Decline in September followed by Quick Rebound Texas Employment Millions of jobs, SA Baseline $75 billion $100 billion SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; authors' calculations. 12
13 Summary Harvey will have big negative effects on wealth and on peoples lives but temporary effects on job growth some good news for residents. Harvey not big enough to derail the positive job growth momentum in Gulf Coast region or Texas. Model looks at how Gulf Coast region responded to past weather events current labor market tightness (particularly in construction sector) in state may slow the recovery response. Model looks at current momentum in economy a sharp change in oil prices or other big economic shock would change outcomes. 13
Salem Economic Outlook
Salem Economic Outlook November 2012 Tim Duy, PHD Prepared for the Salem City Council November 7, 2012 Roadmap US Economic Update Slow and steady Positives: Housing/monetary policy Negatives: Rest of world/fiscal
More informationGAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7
FYE 09/30/92 JULY 92 0.00 254,550.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254,550.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254,550.00 AUG 10,616,710.31 5,299.95 845,656.83 84,565.68 61,084.86 23,480.82 339,734.73 135,893.89 67,946.95
More informationPublic Library Use and Economic Hard Times: Analysis of Recent Data
Public Library Use and Economic Hard Times: Analysis of Recent Data A Report Prepared for The American Library Association by The Library Research Center University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign April
More informationDid Severe Rains and Flooding in May 2015 Affect Texas Poison Center Call Patterns?
Did Severe Rains and Flooding in May 2015 Affect Texas Poison Center Call Patterns? Mathias Forrester Epidemiologist Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) mathias.forrester@dshs.state.tx.us
More informationWHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities
WHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and 2001-2002 Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 October 0.7 0.0
More informationENGINE SERIAL NUMBERS
ENGINE SERIAL NUMBERS The engine number was also the serial number of the car. Engines were numbered when they were completed, and for the most part went into a chassis within a day or so. However, some
More informationHURRICANES. Part 1/Group 1 Student Handout Historical Occurrence Study 2. Part 2/Group2 Student Handout Storm Tracking 5
LEARNING EXPERIENCE 1 STUDENT HANDOUT HURRICANES Developed by Rebecca C. Smyth 1, Matt Morris 2,3 and Kathy Ellins 4 1. Research Scientist Associate, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences,
More informationTo understand the behavior of NR prices across key markets, during , with focus on:
Jom Jacob The Rubber Board*, India (* The views presented here do not necessarily imply those of the organization ) To understand the behavior of NR prices across key markets, during 7-2012, with focus
More informationGTR # VLTs GTR/VLT/Day %Δ:
MARYLAND CASINOS: MONTHLY REVENUES TOTAL REVENUE, GROSS TERMINAL REVENUE, WIN/UNIT/DAY, TABLE DATA, AND MARKET SHARE CENTER FOR GAMING RESEARCH, DECEMBER 2017 Executive Summary Since its 2010 casino debut,
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: August 17, 2018
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: August 17, 2018 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 stands at 2.4%. News from this week s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q3 by 0.2 percentage point. Negative
More informationNASCUS Summit August dwightjohnston.com
NASCUS Summit August 2017 } Accomplishments to date that impact the economy positively or negatively 0 } Stock market surprisingly patient and could remain so } Bond traders still betting against Trump
More informationHighlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado
Highlights of the 2006 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken, State Climatologist Atmospheric Science Department Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented to 61 st Annual Meeting
More informationCITY OF MESQUITE Quarterly Investment Report Overview Quarter Ending September 30, 2018
CITY OF MESQUITE Quarterly Investment Report Overview Quarter Ending September 30, 2018 Investment objectives are safety, liquidity, yield and public trust. Portfolio objective is to meet or exceed the
More informationNSP Electric - Minnesota Annual Report Peak Demand and Annual Electric Consumption Forecast
Page 1 of 5 7610.0320 - Forecast Methodology NSP Electric - Minnesota Annual Report Peak Demand and Annual Electric Consumption Forecast OVERALL METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK Xcel Energy prepared its forecast
More informationCITY OF MESQUITE Quarterly Investment Report Overview Quarter Ending June 30, 2018
CITY OF MESQUITE Quarterly Investment Report Overview Quarter Ending June 30, 2018 Investment objectives are safety, liquidity, yield and public trust. Portfolio objective is to meet or exceed the average
More informationEuro-indicators Working Group
Euro-indicators Working Group Luxembourg, 9 th & 10 th June 2011 Item 9.4 of the Agenda New developments in EuroMIND estimates Rosa Ruggeri Cannata Doc 309/11 What is EuroMIND? EuroMIND is a Monthly INDicator
More informationovember 2008 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
ovember 2008 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary 2008 Special Focus on Antigua and Barbuda The Season in Brief Sixteen (16) named storms formed in the Atlantic
More informationJOINT BRIEFING TO THE MEMBERS. El Niño 2018/19 Likelihood and potential impact
JOINT BRIEFING TO THE MEMBERS El Niño 2018/19 Likelihood and potential impact CURRENT EL NIÑO OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2018) CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast from September. Red bars denote probability of an El Nino developing
More informationSeasonal Weather Forecast Talk Show on Capricorn FM and North West FM
Seasonal Weather Forecast Talk Show on Capricorn FM and North West FM Categories of Weather Forecast Nowcast (0-6 hours) DETERMINISTIC Short-term (1-7 days) DETERMINISTIC Medium-term (up to 30 days) DETERMINISTIC/PROBABILISTIC
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: July 20, 2018
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: July 20, 2018 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2018:Q2 and 2.4% for 2018:Q3. News from this week s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q2 by 0.1 percentage
More informationSYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY
SYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY * ANNUAL MaxTemp NEL (MWH) Hr Ending Hr Ending LOAD (PEAK HOURS 7:00 AM TO 10:00 PM MON-SAT) ENERGY (MWH) INCREMENTAL COST DAY DATE Civic TOTAL MAXIMUM @Max MINIMUM @Min FACTOR
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationHAZUS-MH: A Predictable Hurricane Risk Assessment Tool for the City of Houston and Harris County
HAZUS-MH: A Predictable Hurricane Risk Assessment Tool for the City of Houston and Harris County Presented by Melvin G. Spinks, P.E., President Annie Ding, PhD, GISP October 29, 2008 Rice University Contents
More informationTornado Hazard Risk Analysis: A Report for Rutherford County Emergency Management Agency
Tornado Hazard Risk Analysis: A Report for Rutherford County Emergency Management Agency by Middle Tennessee State University Faculty Lisa Bloomer, Curtis Church, James Henry, Ahmad Khansari, Tom Nolan,
More information2006 & 2007 Pre-Hurricane Scenario Analyses
2006 & 2007 Pre-Hurricane Scenario Analyses Executive Summary May 2007 Page 1 OF X FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 4 Public Availability to be Determined Under 5 U.S.C. 552 NOTE: Limited Distribution. Release of
More informationDrought. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011
2010-2011 Drought Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011 Texas Annual Rainfall Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010 Texas Annual Temperature 1895-2010 Notice Any
More informationSuan Sunandha Rajabhat University
Forecasting Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar Using Time Series Analysis Kunya Bowornchockchai Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University INTRODUCTION The objective of this research is to forecast
More informationTexas Statewide Mesonet Network (TexMesonet) Dr. Kantave Greene 11/15/17
Texas Statewide Mesonet Network (TexMesonet) Dr. Kantave Greene 11/15/17 1 Observe weather features Why Mesonets? Thunderstorms Squall lines Dry-lines Sea breezes Improve weather & flood forecasts Drought
More informationHurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: The History and Future of the Texas Coast
# 82 Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: The History and Future of the Texas Coast Dr. Kerry Emanuel January 8, 2013 Produced by and for Hot Science - Cool Talks by the Environmental Science Institute. We
More information2017 Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products ASX SETTLEMENT
2017 Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products ASX SETTLEMENT Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products 1 ASX Settlement Pty Limited (ASX Settlement) operates a trade date plus two Business
More informationSluggish Economy Puts Pinch on Manufacturing Technology Orders
Updated Release: June 13, 2016 Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org Sluggish Economy Puts Pinch on Manufacturing Technology Orders Manufacturing technology orders for were down
More informationPublished by ASX Settlement Pty Limited A.B.N Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products
Published by Pty Limited A.B.N. 49 008 504 532 2012 Calendar for Cash Market Products Calendar for Cash Market Products¹ Pty Limited ( ) operates a trade date plus three Business (T+3) settlement discipline
More informationFORECASTING COARSE RICE PRICES IN BANGLADESH
Progress. Agric. 22(1 & 2): 193 201, 2011 ISSN 1017-8139 FORECASTING COARSE RICE PRICES IN BANGLADESH M. F. Hassan*, M. A. Islam 1, M. F. Imam 2 and S. M. Sayem 3 Department of Agricultural Statistics,
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: October 21, 2016
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: October 21, 216 The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 216:Q3 and 1.4% for 216:Q4. Overall this week s news had a negative effect on the nowcast. The most notable developments
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous
More informationDates and Prices ICAEW - Manchester In Centre Programme Prices
Dates and Prices ICAEW - Manchester - 2019 In Centre Programme Prices Certificate Level GBP ( ) Intensive Accounting 690 Assurance 615 Law 615 Business, Technology and Finance 615 Mangement Information
More informationSYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY
SYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY * ANNUAL MaxTemp NEL (MWH) Hr Ending Hr Ending LOAD (PEAK HOURS 7:00 AM TO 10:00 PM MON-SAT) ENERGY (MWH) INCREMENTAL COST DAY DATE Civic TOTAL MAXIMUM @Max MINIMUM @Min FACTOR
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: September 23, 2016
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: September 23, 216 The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% and 1.2% for 216:Q3 and 216:Q4, respectively. Negative news since the report was last published two weeks ago pushed
More informationClimate Update. Wendy Ryan and Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center. Atmospheric Science Department Colorado State University
Climate Update Wendy Ryan and Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department Colorado State University Presented to Water Availability Task Force June 26, 2008 Denver, CO Prepared
More informationTechnical note on seasonal adjustment for M0
Technical note on seasonal adjustment for M0 July 1, 2013 Contents 1 M0 2 2 Steps in the seasonal adjustment procedure 3 2.1 Pre-adjustment analysis............................... 3 2.2 Seasonal adjustment.................................
More informationUNDERSTANDING STORM TIDES
UNDERSTANDING STORM TIDES Run from the water, hide from the wind.. CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY 1 2 3 4 5 WIND 74-95 mph 64-82 knots 96-110 mph 83-95 knots 111-130 mph 96-113 knots 131-155
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: May 5, 2017
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: May 5, 217 The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 217:Q2. News from this week s data releases reduced the nowcast for Q2 by percentage point. Negative surprises from the
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationForecasting the Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Wissam Saleh & Pablo Navarro
Forecasting the Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Wissam Saleh & Pablo Navarro Research Question: What variables effect the Canadian/US exchange rate? Do energy prices have an effect on the Canadian/US exchange
More information2019 Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products. ASX Settlement
2019 Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products ASX Settlement Settlement Calendar for ASX Cash Market Products 1 ASX Settlement Pty Limited (ASX Settlement) operates a trade date plus two Business
More informationTable 01A. End of Period End of Period End of Period Period Average Period Average Period Average
SUMMARY EXCHANGE RATE DATA BANK OF ZAMBIA MID-RATES Table 01A Period K/USD K/GBP K/ZAR End of Period End of Period End of Period Period Average Period Average Period Average Monthly January 6.48 6.46 9.82
More information2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas
2A.5 A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas From Tropical Cyclones Derek Ortt and Cameron Self StormGeo Inc, Houston, Texas 1. INTRODUCTION In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey produced catastrophic
More informationJuly 2017 LOGISTICAL HARMONY
Li s&staging(wpedestriansidewalkprot.) (4/18/through7/18/2017) July2017 101BelvidereEastFaçadeWorkPipeStaging (4/18/through7/18/2017) 101BelvidereEastFaçadeWork (through8/31/2017) Legend RampaccesstoTMCX
More informationBy: Jill F. Hasling, Certified Consulting. Houston, Texas. November 2016
Thirty-three Years of Annual Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks Comparison of Weather Research Center Cyclone Strike Index with Colorado State s Hurricane Outlook By: Jill F. Hasling, Certified Consulting
More informationInflation Report April June 2012
August, 212 Outline 1. External Conditions 2. Economic Activity in Mexico 3. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants. Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions Global economic growth slowed
More informationLife Cycle of Convective Systems over Western Colombia
Life Cycle of Convective Systems over Western Colombia Meiry Sakamoto Uiversidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Colombia Life Cycle of Convective Systems over Western Colombia Convective System (CS)
More informationAnnual Average NYMEX Strip Comparison 7/03/2017
Annual Average NYMEX Strip Comparison 7/03/2017 To Year to Year Oil Price Deck ($/bbl) change Year change 7/3/2017 6/1/2017 5/1/2017 4/3/2017 3/1/2017 2/1/2017-2.7% 2017 Average -10.4% 47.52 48.84 49.58
More informationW E E K L Y P U B L I C AT I O N. Commodities Weekly
W E E K L Y P U B L I C AT I O N Commodities Weekly For further information or questions, please email: mike.m@xatsuk.com Website https:/// DISCLAIMER: By using this report, you accept this disclaimer
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationJackson County 2013 Weather Data
Jackson County 2013 Weather Data 61 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center Doug Mayo Jackson County Extension Director 1952-2008 Rainfall Data
More informationPost-Hurricane Recovery: How Long Does it Take?
Post-Hurricane Recovery: How Long Does it Take? Implications for disaster recovery after hurricanes Harvey and Irma In the following report, BuildFax analyzed the geographic areas impacted by three of
More informationA Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from
A Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from 1960-2010 K.L. Crandall and P.S Market University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences Introduction The
More informationNatGasWeather.com Daily Report
NatGasWeather.com Daily Report Issue Time: 5:15 pm EST Sunday, February 28 th, 2016 for Monday, Feb 29 th 7-Day Weather Summary (February 28 th March 5 th ): High pressure will dominate much of the US
More informationCharting Employment Loss in North Carolina Textiles 1
P. Conway 14 January 2004 Charting Employment Loss in North Carolina Textiles 1 The job losses in North Carolina manufacturing, and the textiles industry in particular, are most often attributed to the
More informationSource: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Shaded areas indicate US recessions research.stlouisfed.org
Business Cycles 0 Real Gross Domestic Product 18,000 16,000 (Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis Shaded
More informationSaudi Arabia. July present. Desert Locust Information Service FAO, Rome Red Sea coast outbreak
Saudi Arabia July 2016 - present coast outbreak Desert Locust Information Service FAO, Rome www.fao.org/ag/locusts Keith Cressman (Senior Locust Forecasting Officer) updated: 24 January 2017 undetected
More informationACCELERATED BEACH EROSION ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ACCELERATED BEACH EROSION ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST Young Hyun Park 1, Billy L. Edge 2 and Sehyun Cheon 3 The upper Texas coast has been severely eroded and beach erosion is going on. It is not extreme
More informationThomson Reuters Market Analysis:
Thomson Reuters Market Analysis: US Impact of Lifting Iranian Sanctions May 2015 Oil Research & Forecasts Houston CONTENTS SUMMARY... 2 OIL PRICE FORECAST... 3 Brent Forecast... 3 WTI Forecast... 4 Refined
More informationA look into the factor model black box Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP
A look into the factor model black box Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP Marta Bańbura and Gerhard Rünstler Directorate General Research European Central Bank November
More informationP7.7 A CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLORIDA
P7.7 A CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE VICINITY OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLORIDA K. Lee Burns* Raytheon, Huntsville, Alabama Ryan K. Decker NASA, Marshall Space Flight
More information2003 Water Year Wrap-Up and Look Ahead
2003 Water Year Wrap-Up and Look Ahead Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Odie Bliss http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Colorado Average Annual Precipitation Map South Platte Average Precipitation
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: September 7, 2018
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: September 7, 2018 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q3 and 2.8% for 2018:Q4. News from this week s data releases increased the nowcast for 2018:Q3 by 0.2
More informationEstimated Impacts of September 11th on US Travel
Estimated Impacts th of September 11 on US Travel U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Innovative Technology Administration Bureau of Transportation Statistics Estimated Impacts of September
More informationGlobal climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues
www.bsc.es Ispra, 23 May 2017 Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department and ICREA Many of the ideas in this presentation
More informationIntroduction to Forecasting
Introduction to Forecasting Introduction to Forecasting Predicting the future Not an exact science but instead consists of a set of statistical tools and techniques that are supported by human judgment
More informationHurricane Protection and Environmental Restoration
November 16, 2010 Hurricane Protection and Environmental Restoration Presented by: Colonel (Ret.) Leonard Waterworth AGENDA How do we protect People/Environment/Economy 1900 Year Storm Hurricane Carla
More informationMaking a Climograph: GLOBE Data Explorations
Making a Climograph: A GLOBE Data Exploration Purpose Students learn how to construct and interpret climographs and understand how climate differs from weather. Overview Students calculate and graph maximum
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: September 14, 2018
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: September 14, 2018 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q3 and 2.8% for 2018:Q4. This week s data releases left the nowcast for both quarters broadly unchanged.
More informationSection 9: Hail. Contents. Why Hailstorms Are a Threat
Section 9: Hail Contents Why Hailstorms Are a Threat...9-1 Hazard Profile...9-2 History of Hailstorms...9-3 People and Property at Risk...9-10 Potential Damages and Losses...9-11 Why Hailstorms Are a Threat
More informationSection 10: Tornadoes
Contents Section 10: Tornadoes Why Tornadoes Are a Threat...10-1 Hazard Profile...10-4 History of Tornadoes...10-5 People and Property at Risk... 10-13 Potential Damages and Losses... 10-14 Why Tornadoes
More informationFunding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE. Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center
Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Remember These? Factor 1: Our Energy Source Factor 2: Revolution & Tilt Factor 3: Rotation!
More informationNOWCASTING REPORT. Updated: November 30, 2018
NOWCASTING REPORT Updated: November 30, 2018 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.5%. News from this week s data releases left the nowcast for 2018:Q4 broadly unchanged. A negative surprise
More informationTILT, DAYLIGHT AND SEASONS WORKSHEET
TILT, DAYLIGHT AND SEASONS WORKSHEET Activity Description: Students will use a data table to make a graph for the length of day and average high temperature in Utah. They will then answer questions based
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 Issued: 5 th August 2015 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationApproximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts
Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts Comments by Simon Price Essex Business School June 2016 Redundant disclaimer The views in this presentation are solely those of the presenter
More information(Specification B) 40352H (JUN H01) General Certificate of Secondary Education Higher Tier June 2011 TOTAL. Time allowed 1 hour
Centre Number Surname Candidate Number For Examiner s Use Other Names Candidate Signature Examiner s Initials Geography (Specification B) Unit 2 Hostile World Friday 17 June 2011 For this paper you must
More informationLong-term Water Quality Monitoring in Estero Bay
Long-term Water Quality Monitoring in Estero Bay Keith Kibbey Laboratory Director Lee County Environmental Laboratory Division of Natural Resource Management Estero Bay Monitoring Programs Three significant
More informationMountain View Community Shuttle Monthly Operations Report
Mountain View Community Shuttle Monthly Operations Report December 6, 2018 Contents Passengers per Day, Table...- 3 - Passengers per Day, Chart...- 3 - Ridership Year-To-Date...- 4 - Average Daily Ridership
More informationStatistical Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Trend in Raipur District of Chhattisgarh
Current World Environment Vol. 10(1), 305-312 (2015) Statistical Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Trend in Raipur District of Chhattisgarh R. Khavse*, R. Deshmukh, N. Manikandan, J. L Chaudhary and
More informationIssue Overview: El Nino and La Nina
Issue Overview: El Nino and La Nina By Bloomberg, adapted by Newsela staff on 09.28.16 Word Count 748 TOP: A Category 5 typhoon in the Pacific Ocean. BOTTOM: Graphics courtesy of the U.S. National Oceanic
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The contiguous
More informationLine Graphs. 1. Use the data in the table to make a line graph. 2. When did the amount spent on electronics increase the most?
Practice A Line Graphs Use the table to answer the questions. U.S. Personal Spending on Selected Electronics Amount Spent Year ($billions, estimated) 1994 $71 1996 $80 1998 $90 2000 $107 1. Use the data
More informationHURRICANE HARVEY. Economic Impact Analysis. Updated September 19, 2017 SpendTrend
HURRICANE HARVEY Economic Impact Analysis Updated September 19, 217 SpendTrend HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Hurricane Harvey Economic
More informationSupplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
More informationThe 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. What is New and What to Expect. Mark Chambers President & CEO ImpactWeather, Inc.
The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season What is New and What to Expect Mark Chambers President & CEO ImpactWeather, Inc. Hurricane Climatology for the Gulf of Mexico A Look back at 2013 The outlook for this
More informationPJM Long-Term Load Forecasting Methodology: Proposal Regarding Economic Forecast (Planning Committee Agenda Item #5)
PJM Long-Term Load Forecasting Methodology: Proposal Regarding Economic Forecast (Planning Committee Agenda Item #5) James F. Wilson LECG, LLC PJM Planning Committee August 12, 2009 PJM s Peak Load Forecasts
More informationDetermine the trend for time series data
Extra Online Questions Determine the trend for time series data Covers AS 90641 (Statistics and Modelling 3.1) Scholarship Statistics and Modelling Chapter 1 Essent ial exam notes Time series 1. The value
More informationRainfall Observations in the Loxahatchee River Watershed
Rainfall Observations in the Loxahatchee River Watershed Richard C. Dent Loxahatchee River District September 1997 Introduction Rain is a common occurrence in south Florida, yet its presence or absence
More informationGlobal Climates. Name Date
Global Climates Name Date No investigation of the atmosphere is complete without examining the global distribution of the major atmospheric elements and the impact that humans have on weather and climate.
More informationGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR NIGERIA
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA (HE PRESIDENCY) Q1 - Q4 2011 AND Q1 2012 GROSS DOMESIC PRODUC FOR NIGERIA National Bureau of Statistics Plot 762, Independence Avenue, Central Business District, Abuja www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
More informationWeather Research Center
Weather Research Center 3227 Audley Houston, Texas 77098 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.org Press Release For Immediate Release November 29, 2005 For Information Contact:
More informationTHE APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTION IN THE POST-CRISIS ERA
International Journal of Innovative Management, Information & Production ISME Internationalc20 ISSN 285-5439 Volume 2, Number 2, December 20 PP. 83-89 THE APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO EXCHANGE
More informationA Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake
A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria
More informationTechnical note on seasonal adjustment for Capital goods imports
Technical note on seasonal adjustment for Capital goods imports July 1, 2013 Contents 1 Capital goods imports 2 1.1 Additive versus multiplicative seasonality..................... 2 2 Steps in the seasonal
More information