Salem Economic Outlook
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1 Salem Economic Outlook November 2012 Tim Duy, PHD Prepared for the Salem City Council November 7, 2012
2 Roadmap US Economic Update Slow and steady Positives: Housing/monetary policy Negatives: Rest of world/fiscal policy A Quick Look at Oregon Salem Area Business Index Forecasts for Oregon Job Growth Baseline State-like assumptions Fiscal Cliff Salem Area Job Forecasts Revenue Implications
3 Slow and Steady
4 Still Well Below Trend
5 Slow and Steady
6 Housing on the Mend - Finally
7 Housing on the Mend - Finally
8 Housing on the Mend - Finally
9 Manufacturing Hits Headwind
10 International Drag
11 Austerity Already
12 Monetary Boost
13 Nothing to See Here
14 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Oregon On the Upswing UO Index of Economic Indicators Blue: UO Index, 1997=100, Left Axis Gray: Probability of Oregon Recession, Right Axis % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
15 Mar-90 Dec-90 Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Not the Fastest Growth Oregon Measure of Economic Activity Black: Three Month Moving Average, Left Axis Gray: Real Oregon Personal Income less Transfer Payments, % Change y-o-y, Right Axis % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%
16 Business Index Components
17 Business Index Components
18 Business Index Components M a r i o n C o u n t y S o l i d W a s t e T o n s S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
19 Business Index Components S a l e m L o d g i n g R e v e n u e D o l l a r s S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
20 Business Index Components
21 Business Index Components U n i v e r s i t y o f O r e g o n I n d e x o f E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s I n d e x = S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
22 Business Index Components S a l e m M S A N o n f a r m P a y r o l l s T h o u s a n d s E m p l o y e e s S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
23 Salem Reaches a Bottom S a l e m A r e a B u s i n e s s I n d e x I n d e x = S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
24 Aug-99 May-00 Feb-01 Nov-01 Aug-02 May-03 Feb-04 Nov-04 Aug-05 May-06 Feb-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 May-09 Feb-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 May-12 Still, Very Low Growth Salem Index of Economic Activity Six-month moving average in black
25 Oregon Outlook
26 Many Potential Paths
27 US Growth Forecasts
28 Oregon Forecasts
29 Oregon Forecasts
30 Oregon Forecasts O r e g o n G e n e r a l F u n d R e v e n u e s P e r s o n a l a n d C o r p o r a t e I n c o m e T a x, $ M i l l i o n s A u g u s t E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t S a l e m E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k N o v e m b e r
31 Oregon Forecasts
32 Fiscal Cliff?
33 Very Different Outcome
34 Salem Lagging Or Not?
35 Compare to Portland
36 Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll Data
37 Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll Data
38 Slow Revenue Growth Cumulative Shortfall: $83 million! Salem Total Operating Revenue Actual and Projected (Blue) and Trend FY2005 to FY 1014 (Red) $130,000,000 $120,000,000 $110,000, % $100,000,000 $90,000,000 $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000, % % % 09-10: $93.7 mil : $93.5 mil : $96.9 mil : $96.7 mil : $97.8 mil
39 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Slow Revenue Growth Salem Residential Building Permits, New SFD/DPLX, Value Actual (Blue) and Average Jan. 05 to Jun. 07 (Red) $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 Lost Taxable Value: $567 million $5,000,000 $0
GAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7
FYE 09/30/92 JULY 92 0.00 254,550.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254,550.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254,550.00 AUG 10,616,710.31 5,299.95 845,656.83 84,565.68 61,084.86 23,480.82 339,734.73 135,893.89 67,946.95
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