Drought. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011

Transcription

1 Drought Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011

2 Texas Annual Rainfall

3 Texas Annual Rainfall

4 Texas Annual Temperature

5 Notice Any Trends?

6 Texas Spring Rainfall Less Spring rainfall since 1950

7 Texas Summer Rainfall Greater summer rainfall since 1960

8 Texas Fall Rainfall Greater Fall rainfall since 1960

9 Texas Winter Rainfall Less winter rainfall since 1950

10 Texas Climate Trends Drier winter and spring seasons since 1950 Wetter summer and fall seasons since 1960 Overall Texas annual rainfall has been greater since 1960 compared Drought was much more common, long term, and severe pre 1960 Annual temperatures have been above average since 1996

11 2010 Texas Rainfall

12 2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET

13 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10-Sept 11)

14 2011 Drought Conditions

15 2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 52 (42 in 1998) Huntsville: 70 (43 in 1980) College Station: 66 (58 in 1917) Dallas: 62 (69 in 1980) Waco: 76 (63 in 1980) Austin Mabry: 84 (69 in 1925) San Antonio: 54 (59 in 2009) Del Rio: 81 (78 in 1953) Most Consecutive 100 degree days: Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980) Austin: 27 (21 in 2001) Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980) Waco: 44 (42 in 1980) Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever: July 2011: 87.2 July 1998: 86.5 July 1980: 86.3 August 1952: 85.7 Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on Galveston: 100 on for only the 7 th time ever July 2011 warmest month ever for the state of Texas: 87.2 degrees breaking the previous record of 86.5 degrees in July 1998 Hottest June-August period ever!

16 Lake Levels and Capacity Sept Drought Conditions Lake Conroe: (75%) Lake Houston: (61%) Lake Livingston: (84%) Lake Somerville: (42%) Lake Texana: ft (46%) Lake Buchanan: (41%) Lake Travis: (38%) Lake Georgetown: (38%) Toledo Bend: (61%) Sam Rayburn: (58%) Lake Travis Lake Houston Lake Travis

17 Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB

18 2011 Drought Conditions Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34 September 9 March 30 Mandatory: 583 Voluntary: 294

19 Texas Wildfires April /15/2010-9/12/ million acres burned 19,855 fires 48,613 structures threatened 4,376 structures burned 49 states responding 4 out of the 10 largest TX fires occurred in April 2011

20 Texas Wildfires Labor Day Weekend Bastrop Complex: 34,036 acres 2 fatalities 1554 homes lost 5,000 evacuated 1351 ground personnel, 14 aircraft 12 large fires, Labor Day 2011 Tri-County: 18,638 acres 63 homes lost (23 damaged) 8,000 evacuated 698 ground personnel, 16 aircraft

21 Texas Burn Ban Map: August out of 254 counties under burn bans, old record was 221 in 2006

22 Current Soil Moisture Conditions AUSTIN 751 GALVESTON 729 BRAZOS 762 BURLESON 775 BASTROP 789 COLORADO 773 FORT BEND 739 GRIMES 761 HARRIS 751 HOUSTON 771 JACKSON 765 LIBERTY 709 MADISON 773 MATAGORDA 738 MONTGOMERY 777 POLK 701 SAN JACINTO 763 TRINITY 745 WALKER 773 WALLER 758 WASHINGTON 774 WHARTON 756 KBDI Index

23 Top 5 Driest Feb-Sept 15 Periods for Houston: in (21.4% of normal) in in in in Drought 7.98 inches of rain required at IAH to move to second place and 7.34 inches at Hobby Top 5 Driest Jan 1-Sep 15 Periods for Houston: in in in in in Texas Drought Rankings (Sept 1956 peak) ? (Aug 1918 peak) (July 1925 peak) (Sept 2000 peak

24 Drought Rainfall Deficits (Oct 10 to Sept 15) Bellville: Brenham: College Station: Columbus: Conroe: Freeport: Hobby: IAH: Katy: Livingston: Matagorda: Huntsville: Rainfall Deficits since Hurricane Ike Galveston: Houston IAH: Houston Hobby: College Station: Richmond: Bay City: Wharton: Tomball: Have been in mild drought since Ike, but the last 8 months have been brutal October 2010 to August 2011: Driest October to August period ever for state of TX

25 Drought 2 nd worst in SE TX based on rainfall behind (likely worst in some areas) 2 nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1917/1918 and 1950 s) Driest April ever at Houston (.11 of an inch), driest Spring ever for Houston Driest year to date ever for the City of Houston.32 of an inch of rain at Del Rio Oct 10-April 11 At least 5.1 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy 1.2 million trees lost, estimate 66 million in two years (10% of area canopy)

26 Drought Most areas would require inches of rainfall to bring them to near normal conditions and end the drought

27 ENSO Forecast Models

28 La Nina Impacts

29 La Nina Impacts

30 2011 Drought Forecast

31 Rainfall Forecast 8-14 days 1 month 3 months

32 Questions