Texas Wildland Fire Season Outlook. for. Winter 2009

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1 Texas Wildland Fire Season Outlook for Winter 2009 December 5, 2008

2 Contents Section Page Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Underlying Fuels Condition 4 Weather Outlook 8 Findings 10 Credits 11 Attachments 12

3 Executive Summary On the heels of a severe winter and summer fire season in 2008, entrenched drought continues to grip the central and south central parts of the state as we enter the winter of Precipitation events passing into and through the state this year so far have done little to help relieve the drought conditions in these areas. Areas like the Panhandle, West Texas, and portions of North and East Texas did benefit from the precipitation events, and drought conditions in these areas are closer to normal for this time of year. As a result, the large dead and live fuels in these areas are staying below critical levels as we head into the winter. However, in the central and south central Texas regions these same fuel types are running either near to or above critical levels due to the drought. A survey of current fuel loading, (primarily grasses) across the state indicates a different situation is present this year compared to last year. Last year at this time we were coming out of a wet spring and summer that produced an abundance of grass growth all over the state. The presence of drought and late occurrence of precipitation events has produced a mosaic of fuel loading across the state this year. This mosaic is also a component of whether grazing is present or not. Where grazing is present, grass fuel loading is down. Where grazing is absent, there is still a significant amount of grass fuel loading. ENSO neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific, with forecast models indicating the possibility of La Niña developing there in the early winter and continuing through March Whether La Nina develops or not, forecasters are indicating that the current weather pattern is expected to persist on into the winter. NOAA s winter 2009 forecast indicates an increased chance of above normal temperatures across the state, with a slightly increased chance of below normal precipitation over the lower half of the state through the end of March. This is consistent with what we have been experiencing so far, and does not offer much hope in the way of relief for the drought stricken areas of the state. The entrenched drought and weather forecast represents a real concern for the potential severity of a winter fire season in the central and south central regions of the state. The combination of these factors during a winter fire season increases the likelihood of significant wildland fire occurrence. Significant fires are those that exceed local resource capability. The combination of these factors poses a serious threat to the potential safety of the citizens and property in these regions. For regions of the state not impacted by entrenched drought, the possibility of a persistent dry weather pattern could expand the drought into these areas. In addition, the Hurricane Ike impacted fuels in Southeast Texas will likely increase the fire season severity there as well. Monitoring of critical fire danger and fire weather thresholds will be conducted on a continuous basis as we progress into and through this season. 1

4 Introduction Heading into the winter of 2009, the drought picture across the State of Texas is much different than it was this time last year. (See Graphics 1 & 2) Both the 180 day percent of normal precipitation and National Drought Monitor show significant areas of drought in the central regions of the state. Graphic Day Percent of Normal Precipitation Comparison for Fall 2007 & These 180 day images capture the precipitation footprint for the previous six months, and present them as a percent of normal precipitation for the same period. The difference between this year and last year at this time is considerable. A large area in the central regions of the state was well above 100% of normal precipitation this time last year. As we head into this winter, this same area of the state is 50% or below of normal precipitation. The impact of this difference on the vegetation and wildland fuels is also significant. The above 2008 normal precipitation levels from last year provided the state with an ample amount of fuel loading (mainly grasses) all across the state heading into last winter. But it also helped to keep the large dead and live fuel moistures out of critical levels. Going into this winter, the reduced precipitation levels have produced a fuel mosaic across the state, where the fuel loading is uneven. The large dead and live fuel moistures are also running closer to critical levels where they can be expected to contribute to problematic fire behavior. The National Drought Monitor comparison at the top of the next page focuses in on the entrenched drought conditions in the central part of the state. 2

5 Graphic 2 National Drought Monitor Comparison for Fall 2007 & 2008 The above images show a big picture view of how the drought situation across the U.S. has changed from a year ago. While drought conditions have improved in the eastern and western regions of the country, they have begun to deepen here in Texas; especially in the central part of the state. An area of extreme drought has developed in this area, with the cities of Austin and San Antonio situated at its center. An additional concern for the potential severity of the upcoming winter fire season is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center s (CPC) forecast for the return of a weak La Niña in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Historically, La Niña conditions have generally produced a warmer and drier than normal weather pattern over the state during the winter months. This weather pattern is generally more predictable with a moderate to strong La Nina, but is less so with a weak La Nina. This leads to a lower confidence level in the weather outlook for the winter as a result. A further review of the fuel conditions and weather forecast is discussed in the following sections. 3

6 Underlying Fuel Conditions for 2009 Winter Fire Season Underlying fuel conditions such as drought stress, fine fuel loadings, and fuel modifications due to storm damage are key elements in forecasting the severity of a winter fire season. While it may be difficult to characterize the fuel conditions for each square mile of a state as large as Texas, it is possible to identify significant trends in fuel conditions at a Predictive Service Area (PSA) level or regional level. Information on fuel conditions across the state was gathered based on visual inspection by TFS Predictive Services staff, pictures and comments gathered from wildland fire managers and firefighters, and correlating data such as percent of normal rainfall, drought indices and NFDRS indices. All of this information was used to create a profile of Texas wildland fuel conditions for the winter of Fine Fuel Loading The spring and summer of 2007 saw record rainfall across most of the state and as a result there was tremendous grass production and record fine fuel loading across the state. In comparison, the spring of 2008 was below normal rainfall for most of the state but there were some areas of normal to above normal rainfall during the late summer and early fall that produced some late grass production. Below is a comparison of the annual percent of normal rainfall for 2007 and year to date percent of normal rainfall for This rainfall is the key factor in grass production and fine fuel loading for the winter fire season Percent of Normal Rainfall 2008 Year to Date Percent of Normal Rainfall 4

7 In general the overall grass production across the rangelands of Texas is closer to a normal level going into the winter of This year grazing has had a bigger impact on reducing the fine fuel loading since grass production was at a normal level. Last year the grass production outpaced the effects of grazing. Higher fine fuel loadings can still be found on ownerships that exclude grazing. These ownerships can be found anywhere in the state but a higher percentage can be found in the Hill Country where wild game management is more prevalent as a primary land management objective. Grazing is generally absent around urban growth areas. Higher fuel loadings can be expected in these areas but they will be found on smaller ownerships. Here is an example of heavily grazed rangeland in the High Plains. Here is an example of rangeland in the Southern Plains where grazing has been excluded. Grazing is generally not found in areas where communities are expanding 5

8 Drought Stressed Fuels Drought and persistent dryness has a direct effect on the amount of fuel that is available to burn which will produce more complex wildland fires and fires that are more resistant to control. Drought that is present going into a winter fire season brings into play timber and brush litter fuels, heavy dead fuels and live fuels that include the crowns of juniper, pine, and live oak. In a normal year without the underlying drought, brush and timber litter fuels will hold moisture and provide a slowing effect on fire spread coming out of cured grasses. But if drought is present, these litter fuels produce higher intensities which when combined with the low foliar moistures in evergreen crowns will produce torching and spotting. Below is the 90 day percent of normal rainfall map and the KBDI map which correlate well with an expanding area of drought stressed fuels in the state. 90-Day percent of Normal Rainfall 6

9 Fuel Modifications Hurricane Ike had a significant impact on the surface fuel loadings in timber litter fuel in parts of Southeast Texas and the Western Pineywoods. This Ike debris has increased the fuel bed depth, provided fuel continuity across the surface, increased the drying efficiency of the litter layer by laying down a loosely stacked layer of 1-hour dead fuel and increased the available ladder fuel by mixing in dead material with the understory brush canopies. These changes in the surface fuels will produce higher intensity wildland fires that will be more resistant to control and cause an increase in multiple resource response for suppression operations. The significant storm damage as it relates to wildland fire in timber fuel types seems to closely follow the surface wind bands that exceed 80mph. This would include portions of Liberty, Hardin, Polk, San Jacinto, and Montgomery Counties where timberland fuels can be found. 7

10 Weather Outlook According to NOAA s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are currently present in the Tropical Pacific. (See Graphic 3 below) Several of the ENSO forecast models indicate the development of La Nina during the winter months. (See Graphic 4) However, the development of La Nina this late in the year is rare. Even though the computer models indicate this could occur, there is also the possibility that it will not develop and ENSO neutral conditions will continue on into the winter. This is due to persistence; or, the weather pattern we are experiencing now is what we can expect in the future. Should this be the case, then it is possible that the synoptic (large scale) weather pattern now in place could be expected to persist into the winter months. If so, this does not offer much hope of relief to the drought stricken areas of the state. The current NOAA forecast for winter 2009 shows an increased chance of above normal temperatures across the state, with a slightly increased chance of below normal precipitation over the lower half of the state through the end of March. (See Graphic 5) The forecast for below normal precipitation over the southern half of the state would be consistent with what we have experienced so far. In addition, we can also expect the typical winter weather patterns that include crossing frontal systems with strong wind and dry air. Graphic 3 NOAA s Current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly 8

11 Graphic 4 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eastern Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Computer Model Forecast La Niña Conditions Below line Graphic 5 NOAA Temperature & Precipitation Forecast for Winter

12 Findings Through the process of analyzing all the factors that could contribute to the character of the 2009 winter fire season, four factors have emerged as factors that could have a significant impact. 1. The presence of drought in the south central portion of the state (see Attachment 1) has created drought stressed fuels and has increased the range of available fuels to include heavy dead fuels and live fuels. The increased range of available fuels will produce more significant wildland fires that are more resistant to control. By definition, significant wildland fires require resources beyond local resource capabilities. 2. Fine fuel loading across the native rangelands could be described as being at normal levels this year. Normal grazing has reduced fine fuel loadings to a level that will help slow fire spread and reduce intensities. Above normal fuel loadings can be found in localized areas where grazing has been excluded and near normal rainfall or late summer rainfall has occurred. 3. Hurricane Ike created a regional size area of modified fuel loadings and fuel arrangements that will increase the number and complexity of wildland fires occurring within the damage zone. A combination of large population centers, a high incidence of arson, and increased timber litter fuel loadings will lead to an active winter fire season. 4. There is no definitive winter season climate forecast as there is great variation in climate prediction models which leads to a low confidence forecast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has published a forecast which calls for below normal rainfall for the southern half of Texas. The Texas plains are a battle ground for contrasting air masses during the winter months. So count on weather patterns that include crossing frontal systems that will bring strong wind, dry air, and little if any precipitation. 10

13 Credits Preparers Tom Spencer Predictive Services Department Head Texas Forest Service Brad Smith Fire Analysis II Texas Forest Service Mike Dunivan Fire Analysis I Texas Forest Service Joshua Young GIS Specialist I Texas Forest Service Supporting Resources used in the preparation of the winter 2009 Assessment NOAA Climate Prediction Center s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion NOAA Climate Prediction Center s U.S. Drought Assessment National Weather Service U.S. Precipitation Analysis Texas Forest Service & TAMU Spatial Sciences Lab Keetch-Byram Drought Index NOAA U.S. Winter 2009 Outlook NOAA Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction 11

14 Attachment 1 US Drought Monitor 12

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