Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management

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1 Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of leaching rain events in Florida and implications on nutrient management C. Fraisse 1, Z. Hu 1, E. H. Simonne 2 May 21, 2008 Apopka, Florida 1 Agricultural & Biological Engineering 2 Horticultural Sciences

2 Outline Main hypothesis & Goal Typical rainfall patterns in Florida ENSO phases Methods Results & Discussion Summary & Recommended action items

3 Hypothesis & Goal Hypothesis: Probability of leaching rain occurrence in Florida during fall, winter, and spring cropping seasons is affected by ENSO Leaching rain is defined as: 3 inches in 3 days or 4 inches in 7 days (Simmone & Hochmuth, 2006; FDACS, 2005) Research on Immokalee fine sand has shown that 1 inch of rainfall may result into nutrient leaching at the beginning of the season (Jaber and Shukla, 2006)

4 Hypothesis & Goal Goal: To develop a methodology to use ENSO forecast to adapt fertilization recommendations and reduce potential nutrient losses Assess the effect of ENSO phases on horticultural crop production Identify a method to predict ENSO phases (GCM in the future) Develop adjustments to fertilizer recommendations

5 Typical rainfall patterns in Florida Most of Florida is in the southern portion of the Northern hemisphere humid subtropical climate zone: hot and humid summers mild and wet winters Southern most portion is called tropical savanna also called wet and dry tropics: precipitation is highly concentrated in the warmer months

6 Climate Normals ( ) Precipitation Highlights 52 Most areas receive at least 50 inches annually Panhandle and SE are the wettest areas Two wet seasons in the panhandle Panhandle: 50% of precipitation during the hot months SW Peninsula: 70% of precipitation during the hot months Affected by ENSO 50 58

7 Rainfall Patterns Bay County Panhandle Hendry County South Florida

8 Driving forces behind climate variability El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ~ ~ cool warm warm cool Recur every 2-7 years Neutral is the term used when neither EN nor LN occurs Slide courtesy of Greg McCabe, USGS

9 El Niño Winter Impacts Air Temperature Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

10 El Niño Winter Impacts Rainfall Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

11 La Niña Winter Impacts Air Temperature Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

12 La Niña Winter Impacts Rainfall Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

13 ENSO effects on vegetables production Percent yield increase 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Tomato La Niña neutral El Niño Hansen et al demonstrated that during El Niño winters: Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower; Prices (bell pepper, snap bean) were higher.

14 Methods Cropping Seasons Cropping Seasons: Fall: Planting on August 15 and lasts for 15 weeks (Nov 30) Winter: Planting on October 15 and lasts for 20 weeks (Mar 5) Spring: Planting on December 15 and lasts for 17 weeks (Apr 15) Analyze occurrence of leaching rain events during each cropping season and ENSO phase (Index developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was used to classify growing seasons)

15 Methods Historical Records Analyze long term records of weather stations located in production areas across south Florida 4 weather stations from the NWS Cooperative Observer Network were selected for this pilot study Station Name County Start Year End Year La Belle Hendry Parrish Manatee Plant City Hillsborough Tamiami Trail Dade We used all years on record and not only data to include as many ENSO events as possible!

16 NWS Coop Stations in Florida Plant City Hillsborough County Parrish Manatee County La Belle Hendry County Tamiami Trail Dade County

17 Results - Climate Normals ( ): Fall Growing Season Fall growing season Planting on August 15 Season lasts for 15 weeks (Nov 30) Results based on krigging of monthly climate normals for COOP stations

18 Results - Climate Normals ( ): Winter Growing Season Winter growing season Planting on October 15 Season lasts for 20 weeks (Mar 5) 13 Results based on krigging of monthly climate normals for COOP stations 11 15

19 Results - Climate Normals ( ): Spring Growing Season Spring growing season Planting on December 15 Season lasts for 17 weeks (Apr 15) Results based on krigging of monthly climate normals for COOP stations

20 Fall Total Precipitation (in) Neutral La Nina

21 Fall Total Precipitation (in) Neutral La Nina

22 Probability of Hurricane Strikes Source: COAPS-FSU

23 Winter Total Precipitation (in) El Nino La Nina

24 Winter Total Precipitation (in) El Nino La Nina

25 Spring Total Precipitation (in) El Nino La Nina

26 Spring Total Precipitation (in) El Nino El Nino La Nina

27 Number of Events (1 inch in 1 day) Neutral El Niño La Niña Fall Season Plant City, FL

28 Number of Events (1 inch in 1 day) Neutral El Niño La Niña Winter Season Parrish Station Manatee County

29 Number of Events (1 inch in 1 day) Neutral El Niño La Niña Spring Season Parrish Station Manatee County

30 Tables Probability of Exceedance Station Season ENSO No. of Events Neutral Fall EL NIŃO LA NIŃA PLANT CITY Winter Spring All Years Neutral EL NIŃO LA NIŃA All Years Neutral EL NIŃO LA NIŃA All Years inches in 7 days

31 Tables Probability of Exceedance All Years Neutral El Niño La Niña 3 inches in 3 days

32 Conclusions & Action Items Preliminary results indicate that ENSO phase forecast can be used to anticipate N leaching potential Source: International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI)

33

34 Recommended Action Items In-depth study of leaching rainfall frequency Adjustment of N fertilizer recommendations based on ENSO phase (GCM models) ENSO phases should be used as input for assessment of watershed level nutrient loads based on models FAWN support and integration with our climate information system Standards of on-farm weather data collection for BMP documentation

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