HURRICANE HARVEY. Economic Impact Analysis. Updated September 19, 2017 SpendTrend

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1 HURRICANE HARVEY Economic Impact Analysis Updated September 19, 217 SpendTrend

2 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Hurricane Harvey Economic Impact Analysis Harvey was a catastrophic flood disaster in southeast Texas Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 13 mph near Rockport, Texas on the evening of August 25 Harvey stalled over southeast Texas from August 26-3 as a weakening hurricane and tropical storm As a tropical storm, Harvey dropped 4-52" of rainfall in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana All-time continental U.S. tropical cyclone rain records were broken Harvey triggered flash flooding in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee from Aug. 31-Sept. 1 Record Rainfall Amounts Saturated Houston/Gulf Coast Location Highlands, Texas (eastern Houston area near the Houston Ship Channel) Rainfall in Inches Friendswood, TX (northern Houston suburb) In Beaumont/Port Arthur, Texas Near Pasadena, Texas (eastern Houston suburb) Near South Houston At League City (southeast of Houston) At Houston Hobby Airport 37.1 At Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport In Galveston In College Station (home of Texas A&M University) Near Victoria, TX 15.6 Near Lake Charles, Louisiana Source: 2

3 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Putting Houston/Gulf Coast and Hurricane Harvey into Perspective Often described as the energy capital of the world, Houston is the #1 gas-producing state, accounting for roughly 24% of total US output. The Houston Metropolitan area is the 4th Largest in the United States (based on GDP). Some initial estimates tally the damages associated with Harvey at $19 Billion. With a GDP of $53 Billion, the Houston economy is 31% of the total Texas GDP. % Oil production was reduced or interrupted entirely due to Harvey, resulting in an estimated loss of 2.3 Million barrels per day. As many as 5, vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Harvey, almost double the losses from Hurricane Sandy. 3

4 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Methodology & Topics Covered First Data Information & Analytics Solutions Team reviewed sales activity from 78,461 merchants across the 18 industries tracked by the US Department of Commerce. This population represents merchants who were open for business in both the date range of this analysis, and the corresponding comparison periods. (same-store-sales) Date range of this analysis of consumer purchasing activity is Aug 13, 217 September 4, 217 Where appropriate, changes in consumption during the time of the storm s impact on Houston are indexed against Monday Aug 14 ( typical Monday, normal conditions) High level review (ing, Total Retail, Total Non-Retail, Total Food, Gasoline Stations, etc.), flowing into smaller industries and categories Analysis measures growth within specific industries within surrounding cities in Texas which absorbed evacuees Analysis explores how consumers navigated through the storm, and the overall impact to consumption year over year Selected zipcodes are highlighted (based on the reported degree/duration of flooding, and based on concentration of commerce) to understand the economic impact [PRE DURING POST] 4

5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Key Takeaways In Houston, Hurricane Harvey created a -3% decline in overall spending Year over Year for the days it wrecked havoc. Sales eroded by -42.5% during the week of the storm when compared to the week prior. Other Hard Hit Areas As residents sought shelter away from the gulf coast and the storm, there is evidence they went to several different areas, not just Dallas/Ft Worth, San Antonio, or Austin. In most cases, there has been a sustained average ticket size increase not necessarily due to price gouging, but simply because overall needs have increased, and there s more to buy to get back to normalcy. Houston Year over Year Week over Week Beaumont -3% -4% Victoria -36% -62% Corpus Christi -23% -42% Looking across a full 2-week cycle (with Harvey s Houston landfall days at the halfway mark), we saw more spending before the storm (54%) than after the storm (42%) through Sept 4. Interestingly, consumers hit their fastest pace of spending overall at 1pm on the Friday Sept 1 after the storm. Zipcode performance was a function of how bad conditions were on the ground. Flooding was random and widespread. Depending on the category, Houston consumers took measures to prep for Hurricane Harvey, or spent heavily post-storm. Accelerated Prep Spending Recovery Spending Very lackluster Recovery Gas, Groceries General Merchandise Building Materials/DIY Sporting Goods Hotel Groceries, Building Materials/DIY Furniture General Merchandise Electronics Clothing & Accessories Travel 5

6 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The BIG Picture Houston Metropolitan Area The week that Hurricane Harvey hit the Houston Metro area, overall spending was -3% behind 216 results. Compared to the previous week, spending dropped -42.5% Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change Aug 11 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 All Spending.4% 2.8% -29.9% -4.4% -42.5% Total Retail 3.4% -3.7% -43.7% -6.8% -58.7% Food & Beverage Stores (Grocery Food Services (Restaurants) 3.% 14.6% -9.1% 6.4% -25.1% 1.4%.5% -43.7% -3.4% -54.2% Gasoline Stations 8.1% 13.4% -15.4% 2.% -24.9% Hotels -12.2% 2.4% -36.6% -7.1% -35.9% Leisure -1.% -7.9% -42.% -24.2% -51.8% Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers -3.2% 5.9% -49.4% 4.7% -54.1% Other Services -6.3% -1.6% -29.% -13.2% -38.9% Travel Air/Rail/Car/Ship -13.9% -16.7% -41.5% -1.4% -42.% Results based on First Data s SpendTrend reporting environment. Same store sales for both comparison periods. 6

7 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The BIG Picture Other Impacted Gulf Coast Cities Obviously, Metro Houston wasn t the only area impacted by Hurricane Harvey. Significant losses were experienced in port cities, particularly the Victoria Metro area. Beaumont and Port Arthur were of particular importance because of the oil refineries located near these cities. All Spending Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change Aug 11 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 Beaumont-Port Arthur 5.2% 1.% -29.3% -4.1% -39.4% Corpus Christi 1.1% 8.9% -23.3% -1.45% -42.3% Victoria -2.9% 1.7% -35.8% 6.31% % Total Retail Year Over Year Consumer Spending Change Week Over Week Consumer Spending Change Aug 11 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 Aug 18 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 31 Beaumont-Port Arthur.1% -11.8% -44.5% -7.62% % Corpus Christi -1.4% -.7% -32.9% -.2% % Victoria 3.% 4.1% -55.2% -3.97% % Results based on First Data s SpendTrend reporting environment. Same store sales for both comparison periods. 7

8 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Houstonians Devoted More Spending to Services and Hotel/Travel/Leisure Overall, spending dropped Distribution of Spend -42.5% during the storm, and how spending was allocated shifted too. Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Hotel/Travel/Leisure % SPENDING 3.3% 3.% 7.3% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% A bigger percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. Retail 24.9% 22.8% A smaller percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. Food (Grocery + Restaurants) 28.2% 27.6% Services (Professional, Business) 32.8% 36.6% 9/2 8

9 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Houstonians Devoted More Spending to Services and Hotel/Travel/Leisure Overall, spending dropped Distribution of Spend -42.5% during the storm, and how spending was allocated shifted too. Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Hotel/Travel/Leisure -42.5% SPENDING 3.3% 3.% 7.3% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% A bigger percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. A smaller percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. Retail 24.9% 22.8% Food (Grocery + Restaurants) 28.2% 27.6% Services (Professional, Business) 32.8% 36.6% 9/2 9

10 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Houstonians Devoted More Spending to Services and Hotel/Travel/Leisure Overall, spending dropped Distribution of Spend -42.5% during the storm, and how spending was allocated shifted too. Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Hotel/Travel/Leisure -42.5% SPENDING 3.3% 3.% 7.3% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% A bigger percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. A smaller percentage of the total dollars spent were allocated here. Retail 24.9% 22.8% Food (Grocery + Restaurants) 28.2% 27.6% Services (Professional, Business) 32.8% 36.6% 9/2 1

11 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Some Evacuees Were able to Shelter in Nearby Cities Texas is a big place, affording those escaping the storm plenty of options if they had the means to get there. Evacuees would have been fleeing from several areas along the Texas Gulf Coast. While there are no absolute figures available yet to determine how many people evacuated to each city, it s clear that during these critical days, smaller cities like McAllen, Killeen, Waco, and Laredo saw spend increases, while San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin each had comparatively less lift. Aug 25 Aug 31 Clothing & Acc. Stores Grocery Stores Restaurants Gasoline Stations General Merchandise Hotels Leisure Collective Growth of these Categories Houston Metro Area -65.5% -9.1% -43.7% -15.4% -37.9% -36.6% -42.% -23.9% Miles from Houston (Direction) Austin-Round Rock -24.% 9.3% -1.2% -2.4% -11.% -6.7% -25.% -.9% 165 (W) Brownsville-Harlingen -1.3% 1.7% -6.2% 19.7% 12.8% -39.% -12.7% 8.1% 35 (SW) College Station-Bryan -12.% 12.4% -4.8% 3.3% -9.1% -13.9% -17.1% 4.6% (NW) Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington -1.8% 6.1%.2% 13.8% 3.2% 2.9% -8.1% 4.2% 24 (N) Killeen-Temple 23.7% 1.8% -1.3% 5.5% 5.6% 2.8% 5.8% 3.1% 2 (NW) Laredo -1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 14.6% -2.7% 18.4% -15.1% 8.1% 31 (NW) Longview 28.5% 5.7% 2.9% 8.7% 14.8% 3.3% -2.3% 7.5% 21 (N) McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 2.5% 15.2% 5.9% 29.1% 6.3% 14.8% -12.8% 15.4% 35 (SW) San Antonio-New Braunfels -12.3% 8.9% -12.2% -1.% -1.9% -31.2% -3.2% -.1% 2 (W) Sherman-Denison -6.8% 3.7% 4.5% 13.4% 5.9% -2.9% -16.8% 7.8% 3 (N) Texarkana -8.8% 1.2%.9% 3.% -8.4% 9.1% -18.5%.6% 29 (NE) Tyler 11.7% 6.9% 1.8% 1.5% 9.8% -11.3% -8.8% 3.2% 2 (N) Waco 12.7% 6.8% -1.4% 2.8% -2.2% 39.4% -25.6% 4.7% 185 (NW) Results based on First Data s SpendTrend reporting environment. Same store sales for both comparison periods. 11

12 9/1 9/2 9/1 9/2 9/1 9/2 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Austin, Dallas/Ft Worth, and San Antonio Experienced Similar Dips in Spending Across Key Categories During Hurricane Harvey Gasoline Stations Building Materials Grocery Stores Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Austin-Round Rock San Antonio-New Braunfels 12

13 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Industry Level Insights 13

14 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston All Categories Combined Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Overall, on the worst day of the storm Houston saw total spending depressed almost 9% versus a typical Monday s activity. All Industries Typical Monday, normal conditions Index = Monday before the storm, activity was still normal Index = 95 Monday immediately after the storm. Severe flooding and rain paralyzes city for 2-3 days A week later, overall Monday spending is still underperforming $73.21 $68.25 $94.1 $55.36 The overall actual average ticket spiked immediately after the storm, but drifted lower by Labor Day 14

15 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Time Series Spending Patterns in Houston: Pre During Post Storm Hour of Day Hourly Contribution to Total 5:: AM 1.99% 6:: AM 1.99% 7:: AM 2.75% 8:: AM 4.23% 9:: AM 6.1% 1:: AM 7.54% 11:: AM 8.37% 12:: PM 8.81% 13:: PM 9.1% 14:: PM 8.53% 15:: PM 8.41% 16:: PM 7.76% 17:: PM 6.4% 18:: PM 5.33% 19:: PM 4.33% 2:: PM 3.56% 21:: PM 2.39% 22:: PM 1.52% 23:: PM 1.9% Daily Contribution to Total Post Storm spending reached maximum at 1pm Friday 9/1 5.71% 9.61% 8.47% 9.88% 11.44% 9.11% 2.54% 1.4% 3.8% 3.54% 6.49% 8.97% 11.32% 8.7%.% 5.71% 9.61% 8.47% 9.88% 11.44% 9.11% 2.54% 1.4% 3.8% 3.54% 6.49% 8.97% 11.32% 8.7% % of Pre: 54.2% During: 3.6% Post: 42.2% 15

16 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Retail vs Non Retail Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Total Retail 16 Total Non-Retail $ $111.8 $ $91.37 $28.48 $ $26.58 $

17 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Gasoline Stations/Convenience Stores Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Gasoline Stations includes traditional convenience stores with gas, as well as automated fuel pumps (pay with a card at the pump). Gasoline Stations Dozens of service stations were off-line, or simply unable to replenish gas after the storm Average ticket size took a hit, even though the price per gallon of gas shot up $.25 $.5 during the week the storm engulfed Houston Typical Mondays, normal conditions Consumer rush to top of their tanks on Thursday & Friday Due to infrastructure damage and road conditions, gas station activity stays depressed. $21.46 $21.48 $18.26 $

18 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Food (Grocery + Restaurants) Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Houstonians almost doubled their rate of spend from Monday to Thursday before Harvey hit. After the storm moved through the metro area, consumers steadily resumed purchasing. Average ticket size also sustained an increase of $7 $19. Food (Grocery + Restaurant) $27.97 $27.91 $47.4 $

19 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Grocery vs. Restaurants Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Total Grocery Total Restaurants $4.18 $38.88 $52.2 $45.47 $17.86 $17.57 $27.44 $21.88 Quite naturally, people stocked up on grocery items before the storm. Thursday and Friday saw indexes of 16-27, as consumers almost doubled their spend. Consumers came out after the storm, but groceries were scarce because stores could not adequately replenish, until Wed. An average ticket increase of $5 $12 has also been sustained post storm. Restaurant patronage was much more reserved ahead of the storm, with a slight uptick on Thursday. Recovery of spend after the storm has been very lethargic. There were far less restaurants open for business even 5 days after the event. Restaurant average ticket has shown a small, sustained increase post storm, but the overall spending is down. 19

20 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Hotels, Leisure Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Hotels Leisure $ $249.6 $185.7 $ $138.1 $ $ $62.51 Hotels didn t see any increase in spending in the days ahead of the storm, a strong indication that residents under-estimated the impact Harvey would have. But starting on Thursday, consumers rushed to book hotel rooms across Houston, and the spending in the category has remained high, achieving average tickets as high as $367, but settling somewhere near $5 higher than pre-storm average spending. The Leisure industry saw Houston area consumers spend aggressively both pre- and post- storm in categories like Recreational/Utility Trailers, Motor Homes, Timeshares, and Health/Beauty Spas. Average tickets steadily rose from through 9/1, but now have sharply fallen off as supply cannot meet the demand. 2

21 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Building Materials Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Building Materials (ie: DIY stores) Building Material & Garden Equip & Supply started seeing an increase in activity on the Monday before the 25 storm hit, but not as aggressively 2 might have been expected. After Harvey moved through the metro area, spending activity seemed to recover quickly. However, clearly the consumer needs changed. Transactions quickly outpaced the actual spending pace, a clear indication that consumers were spending less per ticket, likely buying smaller, less expensive items. $ $16.7 $23.29 $

22 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Clothing Stores, Electronics Stores Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Clothing & Acc. Stores Electronic & Appliances Back To School $ $78.64 $86.67 $77.46 $ $144.2 $ $

23 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Furniture, General Merchandise Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Furniture & Home Furnishings Gen l Merchandise Stores- Inc. Value Retail Back To School 137 Storm Prep $39.66 $31.32 $58.49 $456.5 $5.43 $57.31 $76.34 $47.87 Probably the most apparent behavioral spending evidence, consumers showed very little interest in spending money on Furniture and Home Furnishings.until after the storm passed. But as soon as they were able, consumers aggressively spent, and spared no expense based on the increase in average ticket size. Given the timing of the spike in spending, it is clear that consumers were preparing for the storm after Back-to-School spending was completed. After the storm passed, consumers quickly hit General Merchandise stores to get necessities, cleaning supplies, etc. Average tickets saw a short lived increase, but have since settled lower than pre-storm levels. 23

24 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Specialty Retailers, Car Parts Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Misc. Store Retailers Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers $168.2 $ $25.91 $82.44 $25.96 $2.22 $ $ This is an unfortunate reality of the aftermath of a storm like Harvey. Miscellaneous Store Retailers is primarily composed of independent SMB-type businesses. They are not destinations for storm prep, and will take longer to recover. Average ticket has seen decline through the storm, and even into the post storm period. Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers (ie: Retail auto parts, tires, etc not actual car sales/dealerships) seemed to be the least affected by Hurricane Harvey. Consumer spending follows a distinct pattern relative to weekend purchasing activity. The storm s timing played into that pattern. Average ticket size declined during the storm, but is rebounding. 24

25 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Spending Index in Houston Services, Travel, Sporting Goods Aug 14 Sep 4, Activity Indexed to Monday Aug 14 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Other Services BTS $71.88 $73.98 $32.52 $7.86 $ $ $26.83 $ Sporting Goods realized a spending spike due to back-to-school, as well as storm prep. Services (including professional, medical, and business services) have steadily declined in spend, even though we know it have become a bigger percentage of total spend post-storm. Travel Air/Rail/Car/Ship $ $15.13 $ $ Travel-related spend has steadily withered during and after the storm. 25

26 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Zip Code Level Insights 26

27 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Best and Worst Performing Zip Codes in the Houston Metro Area During Hurricane Harvey (based on total spending change week leading up to storm vs week of storm) BEST Performing: +1.8% week over week Location: Central Downtown Features: Sports Arenas, Convention Center (which served as primary evacuation shelter Minimal flooding WORST Performing: -44.8% week over week Location: West Central Houston, along Buffalo Bayou Features: Upscale, wealthy, established neighborhoods, significant retail (malls, restaurants, etc.) Historic, prolonged flooding in connection with reservoir controlled releases 27

28 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED How Did Spending Change Within Top Houston Zip Codes? If we consider the week of August as a typical benchmark week, how did spending change as consumers in the Houston Metro area braced for the storm? Gasoline Stations Top 1 Zipcodes Lead Up To Storm Week of Storm % 37% % 44% % 68% % 79% % 47% % 47% % 6% % 65% % 41% % 58% Total Houston 12% 58% Lead Up To Storm: Aug 2 Aug 26 Week Of Storm: Aug 27 Sep 2 Compared to the week of Aug 13, the Top 1 Zipcodes for Gas purchases in the Houston Metro area aggressively = Zip code is among the top 1 zipcodes for overall spend ramped up gas spending. Overall, Houston bought 2% more gas in preparation for Harvey s arrival. During the week of the storm, gas purchases fell by roughly half of the typical week s activity. Zipcodes are ranked based on their total spend in the industry 28

29 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED How Did Spending Change Within Top Houston Zip Codes? If we consider the week of August as a typical benchmark week, how did spending change as consumers in the Houston Metro area braced for the storm? Food (Grocery + Restaurants) Top 1 Zipcodes Lead Up To Storm Week of Storm % 11% % 72% Total Grocery Stores Top 1 Zipcodes Lead Up To Storm Week of Storm % 16% % 119% Total Restaurants Top 1 Zipcodes Lead Up To Storm Week of Storm % 39% % 34% % 93% % 16% % 66% % 111% % 74% % 27% % 89% % 11% % 68% % 8% % 117% % 52% % 68% % 88% % 55% % 81% % 95% % 4% % 16% % 78% % 64% % 77% % 9% % 5% Total Houston 11% 83% Total Houston 129% 11% Total Houston 82% 55% Top 1 Zipcodes Food Spend (Groceries + Restaurants) Top 1 Zipcodes Grocery Spend Top 1 Zipcodes Restaurant Spend Clearly, any solid performance in this area was driven by Groceries spending activity. Zipcodes are ranked based on their total spend in the industry The top zipcodes for Grocery spend really tried to pantry load ahead of the storm as did Houston as a whole. Restaurant spend suffered for two reasons significant destruction and displacement of workers, and consumers focused on pantry loading 29

30 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ecommerce Spending in Houston 3

31 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ecommerce Activity in Houston Suffered Through Harvey as Well Weeks Indexed to Week 8/11 ( Normal Week ) ecommerce dropped -41.4% during the week when Harvey hit Houston. By comparison, Total US ecommerce Business was down only -4.3% for the same week. Post-Storm, Houston continued to drag, while nationally ecom spending was up 6.8% Houston ecomm Sales ($) Normal Pre-storm Harvey Post-storm US ecomm Sales ($) Normal Pre-storm Harvey Post-storm Sales % Chg YoY 8/ /1-9/7 9/8-9/9-2.% -4.9% -41.4% -6.1% -7.9% Sales % Chg YoY 8/ /1-9/7 9/8-9/9 1.6% -1.4% -4.3% 6.8% -1.3% 31

32 8/1 8/11 8/12 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 31 Day Total -55.2% -47.3% -48.9% -43.7% -4.2% -22.8% -25.3% -14.3% -15.5% -11.9% -9.5% -1.7% -12.9% -4.5% -5.3% -6.3% -6.3% -7.2% -6.4% -2.7% -3.5% -3.3% -1.6% -2.8% -3.7%.3% 4.2% 2.4% 5.4% 3.7% 7.6% 7.3% HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Daily ecommerce Sales %Chg Year Over Year Show the Staggering Effect of Hurricane Harvey ecommerce activity in Houston started to plummet on Aug 24, and was at maximum freefall by Monday Aug 28 th. Activity gradually recovered, and posted positive year-over-year growth on Sunday Sep 3. But since then, sales have continued to struggle to achieve parity with 216 results. Daily Sales Volume % Chg Year Over ecommerce Activity Only Houston vs. Total 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Houston Total US -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% 32

33 8/1 8/11 8/12 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 31 Day Total -38.6% -38.7% -34.2% -35.2% -26.8% -17.7% -8.4% -6.6% -.9% -2.3% -1.9% -.6% -1.%.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.1% 9.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.2% 6.3% 11.4% 1.1% 14.8% 13.1% 12.7% 15.5% 19.2% 22.3% 22.% HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Though Sales Were Down Significantly, Transactions Were Not Down as Much, Indicating Houstonians Mix of Products Likely Changed Post-Storm, consumers immediate needs likely changed, producing an increase in transactions, albeit for lowerpriced goods. Daily Transaction Volume % Chg Year Over ecommerce Activity Only Houston vs. Total 3.% 2.% Houston Total US 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% 33

34 8/1 8/11 8/12 8/13 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 HURRICANE HARVEY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS SEPTEMBER 217 FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The Cyclical ecommerce Spending Pattern in Houston Was Disrupted by Harvey Against a 31-day spending average, we see daily spending indexes in a somewhat predictable pattern. Mondays typically see a spike in activity after low-indexing weekends. However, during the week that Harvey paralyzed Houston, spending activity was significantly below average. Daily Sales Index (Against 31 Day Average) ecommerce Activity Only Houston vs. Total As reference, the 216 line shows trends that mirror to the total US ecom spending behavior during these days in Aug/Sep Index Total US Houston 216 Index 64 Houston