Extreme Precipitation, NOAA Atlas 14, Other InFRM Initiatives What Can You Do?

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1 Extreme Precipitation, NOAA Atlas 14, Other InFRM Initiatives What Can You Do? Date: 19 September2018 Audience: TX Civil Engineering Conference, San Marcos, TX Jerry L. Cotter P.E., Chief Water Resources U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District BUILDING STRONG

Texas $850 million in 2015 48 fatalities in 2015 29 fatalities 2

2 Background on Flooding Nationally Flooding is leading cause of natural disasters $8 billion per year 82 fatalities per year Texas $850 million in fatalities in fatalities 2 nd quarter 2016 $190 B, Hurricane Harvey 60+ fatalities BUILDING STRONG

3 Many Tribes Many Impacts Lives 48 fatalities 2015 (TX) 29 fatalities April-June 2016 (TX) fatalities Houston, TX (Harvey) Transportation Water systems Cisco, Texas Water Treatment Plant Damaged Sanitary sewer systems Environmental BUILDING STRONG

4 Beginning in 2015,Texas Has Experienced a Growing Trend Toward Extreme Weather and Weather Anomalies Hurricane Harvey was One of the Largest Precipitation Events in the History of the United States! BUILDING STRONG

5 Hurricane Harvey Storm Rainfall totals up to 60 Approaching or exceeding what scientist believed was the maximum amounts of rainfall possible! 23,000 + mi 2 (CT, RI, DE, NJ) Houston Area One of the largest storms in continental US history OFF THE CHARTS! BUILDING STRONG

6 Harvey Weather Patterns Blocking Ridge H BUILDING STRONG

7 Tropical Storm Patricia - Corsican, TX October 2015 Legend Dallas - Fort Worth 22 Rainfall Center BUILDING STRONG

8 Brenham Storm, May 26-27, 2016 (Not Tropical) Dallas - Fort Worth Comparison of Annual Chance of Exceedance to College Station May 2016 Flood Waco Precipitation Depth (Inches) College Station Flood May Year 5 Year 10 Year 25 Year 50 Year 100 Year 250 Year Brenham, TX Year Time (Hours) Blocking Phenomena BUILDING STRONG

Central and East Texas, May-June 2015 2.

76 in 100 100 45 40 Rainfall Depths 100 AEP 35 30 25 20 15 10

Upper Bound of 90% ConfidenceInterval for 1/1000 AEP Curve

9 Central and East Texas, May-June Million ac-ft stored in the 6 projects Ray Roberts in Lewisville in 100 Lavon in Dallas - Fort Worth Grapevine in Rainfall Depths 100 AEP Rainfall (inches) NOAA Atlas 14 Rainfall Frequency Estimates Upper Bound of 90% ConfidenceInterval for 1/1000 AEP Curve Benbrook in 100 Joe Pool in 1/1000 1/500 1/200 1/100 1/ /25 1/10 1/5 1/2 5 0 Duration (days) BUILDING STRONG

10 Why InFRM - Storms Exceeding Infrastructure and NFIP Standards Regional observed storms USACE extreme storm database 24-hour rainfall for 10 mi 2 Plotted in descending order Grey band is current design standard (100- year) for all of TX Blue X s points are storms that exceed 100-year 18 events exceeded the 100-yr design standard 24-Hour 10 Sq. Mi. Rainfall Depth (in) TP40 - Maximum TP40 - Minumum Hour Precipitation for 10 Square Miles Year 24-hour Average 24-hour 10 sq. mi. Rainfall ( ) 24-hour 10 sq. mi. Rainfall ( ) BUILDING STRONG

11 BUILDING STRONG

12 Tropical Storm Hermine Arlington, Texas September Rain 7-8 Rain over Rush Creek 2010 Tropical Storm Hermine Extensive flooding No fatalities Buy-outs for 150 residences $17+ M

Need to Manage and Understand Uncertainty Better I m safe I thought I was safe Why have we had 3

13 Need to Manage and Understand Uncertainty Better I m safe I thought I was safe Why have we had year events in the last 10 years? Who is at risk during an extreme storm event? BUILDING STRONG

14 News Clips Recent Storm Events BUILDING STRONG

6)/Statewide/Basinwide approaches & support Supports common missions Collaboration

15 Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Established 2014 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) program Regional (FEMA Region 6)/Statewide/Basinwide approaches & support Supports common missions Collaboration Leveraging resources and information Limit duplication of effort InFRM Academic Council

16 New Technology How often does technology double? Pre years Post WWII 25 years TODAY 1.5 years FUTURE 12 HOURS Can we hold back technology? How will we retain you standing? Can we shift with technology? Saving graces Technology cannot replace wisdom and experience More data more finite analysis may not improve answers What role will we play in managing technology? How will our businesses be effected? Will you survive the next major paradigm shift? BUILDING STRONG

17 Technological Advances Who are these guys? So what? Played a song written by a computer Prior to this, creativity was the exclusive domain of the living Raymond Kurzweil and Steve Allen on I ve Got a Secret By the 2030s, the non-biological portion of our intelligence will predominate BUILDING STRONG

18 Technology Innovation Accelerators and Scenarios BUILDING STRONG

19 Matrix of Flood Impact Determinations Emergency Response/Recovery Emergency Preparedness Infrastructure Planning Meteorology How much precipitation Observed & Future Rainfall Historical Events W/in Region Design Standard 100yr Rainfall Watershed Hydrology How much runoff Real-time Runoff What-if Runoff Scenarios 100-year Runoff River Hydraulics How deep will the water get Real-time Inundations What-if Inundations 100-year Inundations Consequences Critical infrastructure Homes, Businesses, Hospitals Real-time Impacts Preparedness Impacts Planning Infrastructure BUILDING STRONG

Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Products and Services NOAA Atlas 14 (what is the 100- year rainfall) Flood Inundation Map Library & Scenario

20 Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Products and Services NOAA Atlas 14 (what is the 100- year rainfall) Flood Inundation Map Library & Scenario viewer Watershed Hydrology Assessments (what is the 100- year flow) Base Level Engineering BFE Viewer (what is the BFE at my location) WEB

precipitation events Infrastructure design, bridges, culverts, wastewater, water supply Floodplain mapping (NFIP), where

21 InFRM NOAA Atlas 14 Meteorology Research Initiative What is it: Precipitation frequency estimates Informs us of how much rain to expect in a 100-yr storm event Non-regulatory product Benefits Better understanding of the risk from extreme precipitation events Infrastructure design, bridges, culverts, wastewater, water supply Floodplain mapping (NFIP), where can we safely construct new neighborhoods Preparedness or mitigation planning Schedule NOAA Atlas 14 (September 2018) NOAA Atlas 14

22 What is NOAA Atlas 14? NOAA s Office of Water Prediction, Hydro-meteorological Design Studies Center National initiative which begun around 2000 Today s de facto national standard for precipitation frequency estimates 30 arc-second resolution, ~800 meter grid Durations from 5 minutes to 60 days for Average recurrence intervals (ARIs) from 1 to 1,000 years Electronically accessible Texas is Volume 11 Funded locally

Fort Worth City of Austin Tarrant County Brazos River

23 NOAA Atlas 14 Sponsors Max Strickler Program Manager TxDOT USACE Harris County Flood Control District City of Fort Worth City of Austin Tarrant County Brazos River Authority NCTCOG* * - Helped raise funds and promote NOAA Atlas 14

24 Why is NOAA Atlas 14 Right for Texas? Statistical analysis of precipitation gage data L-moment statistics calculated from annual maximum series (AMS) Regional frequency analysis approach All stations analyzed together as a set Looks at the appropriateness of different frequency distributions across the region Denser rain gauge networks Longer periods of record Upper and lower bounds of the 90% confidence Better quality control More and improved consistency checks Latest techniques for spatial interpolation Accounts for variations in terrain and coastal proximity

25 Precipitation Data Formatted 11,931 stations 15-min 1-hour 1-day Retained 3,900 stations Length of record Reliability of record Average record length ~60 yrs.

26 What Does NOAA Atlas 14 Look Like - 2-yr, 24-hr Precipitation Estimates NOAA Atlas 14 (2018) PRELIMNARY RESULTS

NOAA Atlas 14 - Access To access NOAA Atlas 14 data Navigate to: http://hdsc.

us Click on a study location Access tables, and other forms of data in

27 NOAA Atlas 14 - Access To access NOAA Atlas 14 data Navigate to: Or thru Click on a study location Access tables, and other forms of data in electronic format Utilize USACE applications that incorporate NOAA Atlas 14 data Use an updated NFIP map NOAA Atlas 14 (2018)

28 NOAA Atlas 14 How Does It Become Regulatory Communities update design manuals, incorporating NOAA Atlas 14 data TXDOT updates design manuals, incorporating NOAA Atlas 14 data New NFIP maps produced which incorporate NOAA Atlas 14 data City of Denton, NCTCOG 2014 NFIP Map City of Dallas (1993)

29 NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation Changes Coastal Region Hill Country Questions?

Dongjin Seo University of Texas at Arlington Steve Fitzgerald Harris County Flood Control District Daniel Huckaby NWS Paul McKee NWS

30 NOAA Atlas 14 - Peer Review Board Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon Texas A&M University/State Climatology Dr. William Asquith Texas Tech University/USGS Dr. Nick Fang University of Texas at Arlington Dr. Dongjin Seo University of Texas at Arlington Steve Fitzgerald Harris County Flood Control District Daniel Huckaby NWS Paul McKee NWS Maureen O Leary NWS Jon Zeitler - NWS Alan Johnson FEMA Saul Nuccitelli - TxDOT Jason Johnson NWS Simeon Benson USACE Jerry Cotter - USACE Craig Loftin USACE Helena Mosser USACE Steve Pilney USACE Max Strickler USACE

data set for 25-yr return interval Average around 60-years of record length 2-year and 25-year return interval maps matched

31 InFRM NOAA Atlas 14 Peer Review Integrated science team Scientist from federal, state and local governments, FEMA, USACE, USGS, NWS, Harris County, TXDOT University researchers, UTA, A&M State climatologist Map shape determinations Developed additional data set for 25-yr return interval Average around 60-years of record length 2-year and 25-year return interval maps matched reasonable well > 25-year less consistency of the map 2-year 24 hour 25-year 24 hour 100-year 24 hour Round year 24 hour Round 2

32 NOAA Atlas 14 (2018)

33 InFRM NOAA Atlas 14 PEER Review Appropriateness of selected distribution How many data points equaled or exceeded estimate Variability of estimates over time

35 Houston Area - Non-stationarity

36 InFRM NOAA Atlas 14, Are We Done? Should you be concerned about? Short period of observations? Climate variability, extreme weather, drought and climate change? Atlas assumes stationarity of AMS Estimates show significant non-stationarity How will we manage these phenomena? Do we understand what is happening with the weather and climate change? Point estimates need ARF s Geographic discontinuities Do we need additional studies? ($3 - $4 M) Other methods to estimate precipitation frequency (check) Trend analysis Storm studies (design storms) Responsibility? Who will update in yrs? How will we fund?

37 Area Reduction Factor (Depth-Area-Duration) Analysis Relate precipitation frequency estimates to average storm volume Important for creating Design Storms Develop fixed-area areal reduction factors for all of Texas Areas up to 1,300 km 2 Durations between 1-hour and 24-hours Budget: $420,000 Area Reduction Factors, U.S. Weather Bureau, 1957

Trend Analysis Are the precipitation rates/intensities

precipitation estimates suggest climate change?

38 Trend Analysis Are the precipitation rates/intensities changing? More rain associated with extreme events Seasonal changes Interaction with runoff processes Do the precipitation estimates suggest climate change? How will climate variability affect future results? How is our flood threat changing?

39 InFRM Watershed Hydrology Assessments sponsored by FEMA Region 6 Watershed level vs. community level Current Basins Guadalupe Trinity Neches Colorado Provides Frequency Flows for Design & NFIP 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-r, 25-yr, 50-yr, 100-yr, 250-yr, 500-yr Existing, future and climate change conditions Benefits FEMA NFIP Supports all infrastructure groups Independent non-political science based result using multiple methods Follow-up -> Increased resolution in urban areas What is the 100-year flood?

40 Matrix of Flood Impact Determinations Emergency Response/Recovery Emergency Preparedness Infrastructure Planning Meteorology How much precipitation Observed & Future Rainfall Historical Events W/in Region Design Standard 100yr Rainfall Watershed Hydrology How much runoff Real-time Runoff What-if Runoff Scenarios 100-year Runoff River Hydraulics How deep will the water get Real-time Inundations What-if Inundations 100-year Inundations Consequences Critical infrastructure Homes, Businesses, Hospitals Real-time Impacts Preparedness Impacts Planning Infrastructure

41 Why WHA s - Uncertainty Associated with Single Method Approach 100-Year Estimate Confidence Limit Depth (Feet) Demonstration of uncertainty (variability) associated with each method (actual location, actual records) Time (Years) Confidence Limit

42 InFRM Why WHA s, Non-Stationary Trends In Flood Flow Frequency Estimates, Guadalupe River, TX Additional non-stationarities Guadalupe River system Guadalupe River at Gonzales Guadalupe River at Victoria San Marcus River at Lulling

43 InFRM Why WHA s, Non-Stationary Trends In Flood Flow Frequency Estimates, Trinity River, TX Additional non-stationarities Trinity River system W. Fork Trinity at Grand Prairie Denton Creek at Justin Trinity River at Rosser Trinity River at Oakwood E. Fork Trinity River at Crandall

44 InFRM Inundation Map Server (What You Will See) 16

45 InFRM Web Based Mitigation Planning

46 Matrix of Flood Impact Determinations Emergency Response/Recovery Emergency Preparedness Infrastructure Planning Meteorology How much precipitation Observed & Future Rainfall Historical Events W/in Region Design Standard 100yr Rainfall Watershed Hydrology How much runoff Real-time Runoff What-if Runoff Scenarios 100-year Runoff River Hydraulics How deep will the water get Real-time Inundations What-if Inundations 100-year Inundations Consequences Critical infrastructure Homes, Businesses, Hospitals Real-time Impacts Preparedness Impacts Planning Infrastructure

47 Infrastructure Decision Pyramid DECISIONS - new policies, better performance, new methods Invest Invest CWMS Modeling GUIDANCE and POLICIES - criteria, methods, requirements, needs, safety ANALYSIS TOOLS - evaluation, performance FOUNDATIONAL - data, observations, reference materials Watershed Hydrology Assessments NOAA Atlas 14 Stream and Rainfall Observations QPE Data

Taylor Street Fort Worth, TX 76102 (817) 886-1549 TEL

48 Questions? Jerry L. Cotter, P.E. Chief Water Resources U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District (SWF) 819 Taylor Street Fort Worth, TX (817) TEL (817) CEL BUILDING STRONG

The Beleaguered Figure 15

The Beleaguered Figure 15 TFMA 2015 Fall Technical Summit After the Floods: Texas Rising Craig Loftin, PE, CFM US Weather Bureau Technical Paper No. 40, Figure 15 Village Creek Watershed 1 100-Year 30-Minute