Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting. Weekly Cat Report. October 31, Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Transcription

1 Weekly Cat Report October 31, 2014 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 This Week s Natural Disaster Events Event & Region Fatalities Structures/ Claims Severe Weather/Flooding - United States 2 Unknown - Africa Economic Loss (USD) 10s of millions Unknown Specific Areas Northwest Congo Ex-HU Gonzalo - Europe Millions+ Greece Landslide - Asia Unknown Sri Lanka Severe Weather: Ex-HU Gonzalo: Landslide: A strong storm system, including the remnants of Hurricane Ana, brought torrential rains and gusty winds to the U.S. Northwest. At least two people were killed. Also, four days of heavy rains led to significant flooding in Congo. As many as 100 people are feared to have perished. Details are on page 3. The post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo brought heavy rain to Greece last Friday and Saturday, causing widespread flooding. Some of the most notable impacts were felt in the city of Athens, though no serious injuries or fatalities were immediately reported. Details begin on page 3. A massive landslide struck a tea plantation in Sri Lanka s Badulla district on Wednesday morning, destroying dozens of homes. Local officials feared the death toll was likely to exceed 100 people. Details are on page 4. Weekly Cat Report 2

3 Storm brings high winds and rain to the U.S. Northwest A strong autumn storm rolled into Oregon and Washington last Saturday, killing two people in separate incidents and causing several injuries. The deep low pressure system, which included the remnants of Hurricane Ana in the Eastern Pacific Basin, brought strong winds and heavy rains to the Northwest. Event Details Oregon and Washington were affected by strong winds and heavy rains throughout Saturday as an intense autumn storm moved across the states from the Pacific. Wind gusts of 63 mph (101 kph) were recorded at Newport, Oregon, and in Washington, gusts of 61 mph (98 kph) were recorded at Alki Beach and 520 Bridge. Both states reported one fatality each as a result of the storm: in Washington, an individual was killed as the vessel he was on capsized in rough conditions in the Budd Inlet; and in Oregon, an individual was killed as a tree fell on a tent he was sleeping in. Several injuries were reported as the result of falling trees or braches, particularly in Oregon. Power outages as a result of downed power lines and trees were widespread across the region with more than 300,000 customers without power at the peak of the inclement weather on Saturday afternoon. Specific reports included Portland General Energy (140,000), Puget Sound Energy (97,000), Seattle City Light (52,000), Snohomish PUD (12,000), and Peninsula Light (2,000). A representative from PGE was quoted as saying that it PGE s worst outage since the winter storm of There were still October 25 Surface Map (Source: NOAA) significant numbers of customers without power services 24 hours later. Downed trees were also responsible for disruption to transport across the states with the Portland Metro Area being particularly badly affected: downed trees there blocked several roads and even interstates for a time on Saturday. Total economic losses to Portland General Energy s electrical grid were listed at USD11 million. Another USD1.0 million in damage occurred to port facilities at Port Oxford. Floods affect Congo; Up to 100 feared dead Local media reports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) suggest that more than 100 people may have been killed as a result of flash floods and landslides triggered by four days of torrential rainfall. The deluge started last Saturday and caused widespread damage throughout South Kivu Province in eastern DRC. As of this writing, reports suggested that 30 bodies had been recovered from collapsed buildings and landslides while many local fishermen were scouring Lake Kivu in the hope of finding more victims. Approximately 750 homes, as well as a school and a church, were destroyed in the village of Bushushu which is located on the western shore of Lake Kivu. Damage was also sustained to roads and bridges in the region. Weekly Cat Report 3

4 Remnants of HU Gonzalo bring flooding rains to Greece The post-tropical remnant system of Hurricane Gonzalo brought heavy rain to Greece on Friday and Saturday causing widespread flooding, especially around the city of Athens. Tatoi, to the northeast of Athens, recorded 63.8 millimeters (2.51 inches) of rainfall on Saturday while Elefsis, to the northwest of the capital, recorded 63.0 millimeters (2.48 inches). The system became detached from the steering influence of the jet stream as it tracked across Europe and slowed as it moved over Greece and into the Aegean Sea. The rain caused flood damage to Floods in Athens. (Source: The Associated Press) 580 properties and 168 vehicles in 25 municipalities according to the Greek Fire Department. The municipality of Acharnes was placed under a state of emergency as a result of the damage incurred there. Shopkeepers in one suburb of Athens estimated that damage to their stores would exceed EUR100,000 (USD127,000); while the Greek Government has pledged compensation payouts ranging from EUR585 (USD744) to EUR5,850 (USD7,436) for victims of the floods. Monsoon rains trigger deadly landslide in Sri Lanka At the time of this writing, rescuers had recovered 18 bodies from a landslide which tore down a Sri Lankan hillside destroying a row of 63 houses linked to a nearby tea plantation. The landslide covered the properties with more than 9.0 meters (30 feet) of mud and debris as it struck the village in Central Sri Lanka around 07:30 AM local time (02:00 UTC) on Wednesday morning. Estimates of the number of people still buried in the mud range from 100 (government officials) to 250 (local media outlets). The difficulty in obtaining an accurate number of those missing stemmed from the fact that the office where local records were held was also destroyed in the slide. The Rescue and recovery efforts (Source: Alertnet) landslide was triggered following torrential monsoon rainfalls in Central Sri Lanka: Elkaduwa recorded millimeters (5.55 inches) of rain and Ratnapura recorded millimeters (4.76 inches) in the 24 hours prior to the slide. Weekly Cat Report 4

5 Current Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Select Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp ( C) Departure from Last Year ( C) Eastern Pacific Ocean (555 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 28.4 N/A Tropical Atlantic Ocean (1,590 miles ESE of Trinidad) Western Gulf of Mexico (60 miles SE of Corpus Christi, TX) Eastern Gulf of Mexico (130 miles ESE of Pensacola, FL) Carolinas Coastline (45 miles SE of Charleston, SC) 24.8 N/A Northeastern United States (15 miles SE of Portland, ME) Sources: NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center Weekly Cat Report 5

6 Current Tropical Systems Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** TS Vance 11.0 N, W 40 mph 415 miles (665 kilometers) S of Acapulco, Mexico W at 5 mph CY Nilofar 20.7 N, 65.1 E 40 mph 525 kilometers (325 miles) SSW of Karachi, Pakistan ENE at 6 mph * TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center Weekly Cat Report 6

7 Global Tropics Outlook Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 7

8 Earthquake Activity: October 24 October 30 Significant EQ Location and Magnitude ( M6.0) Information Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 10/27/ S W km 129 kilometers (80 miles) NW of Hihifo, Tonga Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 8

9 U.S. Weather Threat Outlook Potential Threats High pressure is forecast to build across the eastern half of the United States through early next week, ushering in well below normal temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Southeast. A deepening area of low pressure off the Atlantic Seaboard will also interact with the strong ridge to trigger very breezy conditions from coastal Georgia to Maine. Moisture associated with a stalled frontal boundary and developing surface low will bring heavy rain chances to portions of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Midwest through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, heavy snow and mixed precipitation chances will be found in northern New England, Montana and the Cascades. A strong surface low near Alaska s Aleutian Islands will bring several days of high winds and significant waves to western sections of the state. Severe drought conditions linger across much of the West and Plains, though beneficial moisture will help alleviate the severity of the drought in some areas. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 9

10 Current U.S. Watches, Warnings and Advisories Source: NOAA Weekly Cat Report 10

11 Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage Current Stage % of Full Capacity Muddy River near Glendale, Nevada % Skokomish River near Potlatch, Washington % Withlacoochee River at Dunnellon, Florida % Missouri River at Greenwood, South Dakota % Missouri River at Niobrara, Nebraska % Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 11

12 Source Information Storm brings high winds and rain to the U.S. Northwest & Flooding in DRC: Power outages from windstorm to linger into Monday for some, The Seattle Times Strong winds knock out power to over 150,000, KATU News South Kivu: nearly a hundred dead and missing after a rain Kalehe, Radio Okapi Torrential rain in Kalehe: search operations continue, Radio Okapi United States National Weather Service Relief Web Remnants of HU Gonzalo bring flooding rains to Greece: 580 houses and 168 vehicles found flood-stricken in 25 municipalities, Athens-Macedonian News Agency Govt' declares Acharnes under state of emergency after flooding, Athens-Macedonian News Agency World Meteorological Organization Monsoon rains trigger deadly landslide in Sri Lanka: Over 250 buried alive; more mountains likely to collapse, The Island Sri Lanka s Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka Disaster Management Centre Weekly Cat Report 12

13 Contact Information Steve Bowen Associate Director (Meteorologist) Analytics Impact Forecasting Claire Kennedy Senior Analyst (Meteorologist) Analytics Impact Forecasting Weekly Cat Report 13

14 About, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Weekly Cat Report 14