Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting. Weekly Cat Report. February 16, Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

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1 Weekly Cat Report February 16, 2018 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 This Week s Natural Disaster Events Event & Region CY Gita - Oceania Fatalities Damaged Structures or Filed Claims Est. Economic Loss (USD) Specific Areas Page 1+ Thousands Millions Tonga 3 The Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight: 2017 Annual Report has been released. The full report can be downloaded here: Click here to watch our short film highlighting findings in the report Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting s Catastrophe Insight website: Weekly Cat Report 2

3 CY Gita strikes Tonga; strongest storm of SPAC season Cyclone Gita, the second named storm of the Southern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and the strongest global cyclone of the year to date, impacted several island nations in the Pacific Ocean. While maintaining Category 4 intensity, the storm caused major damage in Tonga and became the strongest storm to ever impact the country since the modern records began 60 years ago. A few days prior it prompted damage and disruption in Samoa and American Samoa. At least one person was killed and damage to thousands of properties were reported. Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) first began initiating advisories on a tropical disturbance in the southern Pacific Ocean near the Solomon Islands on February 9 after first erratically traversing south of the Solomon Islands. Shifting steering currents prompted the storm officially deemed Tropical Cyclone Gita to initially track due eastward before later changing direction and moving towards the west and in the general direction of Tonga and Fiji. During this timeframe on February 9, 10, and 11, Gita underwent rapid intensification while traversing extremely warm ocean waters and was enhanced by favorable upper level atmospheric conditions. In less than 48 hours time, Gita strengthened from a Category 1 storm to a Category 4 with 230 kph (145 mph) winds on February 11/12. During the intensification process, Gita tracked very near Samoa and American Samoa before later heading directly towards the Tonga archipelago. As the primary steering mechanism, a strengthening ridge of high pressure located to the northeast, continued to strengthen, this allowed the storm to take a more westerly trajectory towards the island chain. A state of emergency was declared as Gita passed within 30 kilometers (20 miles) of Tongatapu the main island of the Kingdom of Tonga on February 11 while at peak intensity. This officially made Gita the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Tonga in the 60 years that records have been kept at this location. Gita on visible satellite image on February 12, 05:00 UTC (left) and on thermal image at 09:00 UTC (right). (Source: NOAA & CSU) As of this writing on February 15, Gita continues to track generally towards the west. The storm has weakened from its peak intensity, but continues to maintain Category 2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The JTWC anticipated further weakening in the coming days as Gita tracks over cooler ocean waters. However, changing steering currents were expected to take the cyclone very near New Caledonia before shifting south in the next three days. By the middle of next week, it was possible that Gita s extratropical remnants could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to New Zealand. Weekly Cat Report 3

4 Event Details Samoa, American Samoa Heavy rainfall associated with Gita caused flooding and landslides in Samoa, as the 24-hour precipitation totals reached 600 millimeters (23.6 inches). Further damage was reported from American Samoa, where Gita prompted the authorities to declare the state of emergency. At least 700 people remained temporarily accommodated in shelters several days after the storm brushed off the islands and deprived a significant portion of the population of electricity and running water. Tonga Cyclone Gita became the strongest tropical cyclone to impact Tonga in modern history. Tonga is a small Polynesian nation that lies approximately 750 kilometers (465 miles) to the southeast of the Fiji s main island. Tonga is a home for approximately 107,000 people and majority of those live on two main islands Tongatapu and Eua. Tonga has a low nominal GDP, with the World Bank officially citing a GDP of USD402 million in 2016 though other estimates suggest a GDP of up to 440 million. Prior to Gita s passage, necessary preparations were made by authorities given fears that the storm might further intensify to Category 5 intensity prior to reaching the islands. Thus, a curfew was declared in the evening of February 12. Gita would eventually strike the islands at Category 4 intensity with sustained winds reaching 230 kph (143 mph). At least 30 people were injured, three of them seriously, and one direct fatality was reported. According to initial reports from the islands, widespread damage occurred in the capital Nuku alofa and elsewhere. Preliminary reports suggested that as much as 40 percent of buildings in Tonga were damaged. Early tallies indicated that 1,064 structures were damaged (969) or destroyed (95) on the main island of Tongatapu alone. A preliminary assessment derived from satellite images, conducted by the Pacific Disaster Center, suggested a higher number of damaged houses (2,760), of which 217 were destroyed, 1,528 were damaged and 571 possibly sustained some degree of damage. Roofs were torn off buildings and large amounts of debris filled the streets. The 100-year old parliament building was completely destroyed. Further damage was sustained by the electricity grid and agricultural sector; however it is too early to estimate the full impact. Source: Australia Broadcasting Corporation At least 5,000 people remained in shelters immediately after the passage of the storm. According to UNICEF, 80,000 people (approximately 75 percent of the population) might be in need of assistance. Oxfam estimated the number of affected people at 50,000. On Tuesday, February 13, foreign aid started to pour to the country, notably from New Zealand and Australia Weekly Cat Report 4

5 Financial Loss It remains too preliminary to provide an economic loss estimate of the damage at this time. However, given the relatively low GDP of Tonga and the expected costly impact from Gita on the islands, it is expected that the financial impact could represent a notable portion of the annual economy. Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Tropical Storm (Philippines) Tropical Storm Sanba became the second named storm of the 2018 Western Pacific Typhoon Season and made an official landfall in the Philippines Mindanao on February 13. The system prompted flooding rains across central and southern sections of the country that led to at least 350 homes reporting varying levels of inundation. At least 114 barangays indicated flood impacts, with more than 150,000 residents impacted by the storm. Dozens of roads were closed due to high water levels, debris from landslides, or sections were washed away. Total economic losses were expected to be less than USD10 million. Winter Weather (United States) A series of winter storms developed and impacted parts of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast from February 7-10 in the United States. Significant snowfall aggregated at nearly 20 inches (51 centimeters) was recorded in major metro areas such as Chicago, IL, where the city tied a record with nine consecutive days of measurable snowfall, and Detroit, MI. Widespread damage in the affected areas was not reported, though there was notable disruption on the roads and at airports. Thousands of flights were cancelled or delayed. Flooding (Malawi) Heavy rainfall affected Malawi from February 7-9, leading to widespread flooding in the Northern, Central and Southern regions. No fatalities were reported, though the floods inundated nearly 1,000 homes and other structures in the hardest-hit districts of Salima, Phalombe, and Karonga. Most of the flooding resulted from overflowing rivers given an active weather pattern that has resulted in several bouts of heavy rainfall. Weekly Cat Report 5

6 Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface air temperatures (2 meters above the surface). Probabilities indicate the percent of ensemble members that predict temperatures significantly above normal, near normal, or significantly below normal. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 6

7 Global Precipitation Anomaly Forecast This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of accumulated precipitation. Probabilities are derived from the fraction of ensemble precipitation forecasts exceeding various thresholds. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 7

8 Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies ( C) The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS' operational daily global 5 km Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer. Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp ( C) Departure from Last Year ( C) Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) Niño3.4 region (2 N latitude, 155 W longitude) Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center Weekly Cat Report 8

9 Probability (%) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Niña conditions are currently present. 100% Early February IRI/CPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast 100% 90% 80% 90% 80% El Niño 70% 70% Neutral 60% 50% 40% 30% 60% 50% 40% 30% La Niña El Niño Neutral Climatological 20% 10% 20% 10% La Niña 0% JFM 2018 FMA 2018 MAM 2018 AMJ 2018 MJJ JJA Time period JAS 2018 ASO 2018 SON % El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5 C) that periodically develop across the eastcentral equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5 C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3- month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5 C (-0.5 C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Source: NOAA Weekly Cat Report 9

10 Global Tropics Outlook Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 10

11 Current Tropical Systems Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** CY Gita 21.8 S, E 120 mph 405 miles (650 kilometers) E of Nouméa, New Caledonia W at 10 mph * TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center Weekly Cat Report 11

12 Global Earthquake Activity ( M4.0): February 9-15 Significant EQ Location and Magnitude ( M6.0) Information Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 02/11/ N E km 136 kilometers (85 miles) ESE of Northern Mariana Islands Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 12

13 U.S. Weather Threat Outlook Potential Threats An active period through the middle of next week is poised to bring periods of heavy precipitation (rain, snow, and a wintry mix) to central and eastern sections of the U.S. Elsewhere, a Pacific storm system will trigger heavy snow and gusty winds in the Northwest and gusty winds extending into Southern California. Building high pressure will allow cold air to sink southward into the northern Rockies next week. Daytime temperatures are expected to be well below normal levels. Conversely, southerly winds will allow temperatures to reach well above normal values in Alaska. Recent heavy precipitation has led to elevated river levels in parts of the Southeast, and forecast precipitation could exacerbate the flood potential. Severe drought conditions continue to intensify for parts of the West, Rockies, Plains, Midwest and Southeast. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 13

14 Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity Belle Fourche River near Sturgis, South Dakota % Marsh River near Shelly, Minnesota % Skunk Creek near Hartford, South Dakota % Foot Creek near Aberdeen, South Dakota % Niobrara River near Sparks, Nebraska % Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 14

15 Source Information CY Gita strikes Tonga; strongest storm of SPAC season: Tonga parliament building flattened by Cyclone Gita. BBC Fiji escapes direct hit by Tropical Cyclone Gita, Radio New Zealand Paific Disaster Center xx Natural Catastrophes: In Brief: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Philippines Weekly Cat Report 15

16 Contact Information Steve Bowen Director (Meteorologist) Analytics Impact Forecasting Michal Lörinc Catastrophe Analyst Analytics Impact Forecasting Weekly Cat Report 16

17 About, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Weekly Cat Report 17