Climate Variability and El Niño
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1 Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017
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3 The El Niño /La Niña Cycle The El Niño /La Niña cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast.
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5 How El Niño/La Niña Affect the Atmospheric Circulation
6 Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise
7 El Niño/La Niña Jet Stream Patterns
8 Super El Niño 2015/16
9 Tropical Cyclone Pair
10 Strongest El Nino this Century? SST s slightly higher than previous record values from 1997 Coupled oceanatmosphere phenomenon, atmosphere and impacts important In same category as 1982/83 and 1997/98
11 May 2015 wettest month on record for TX, OK, and Cont. U.S. Texas Floods May 2015
12 El Niño and Tropical Cyclones 2015 Atlantic Summary Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and CSU among the lowest ever. Number of storms near average, ACE and landfalls well below. 10-year streak without major U.S. hurricane or any Florida landfall continues 2015 North Pacific Summary 24 Category 4-5 hurricanes in the North Pacific in 2015 ACE at or near record levels for all regions of the N. Pacific
13 Cold Season Precipitation Patterns 1997/ / / /1966
14 NOAA Winter Forecast Temperature Precipitation
15 Southeast Row Crops Frequent and heavy rain have hindered cotton, peanut harvest Losses of 30% to 40% already in SE Alabama Complete losses in South Carolina Decrease in quality compounded by low prices
16 El Nino on Track in 2016 Series of Gulf low pressure systems tracked across the area in January and February. 18 confirmed Tornadoes in 2016 (Including two EF-3 and three EF-2 Strong subtropical jet has been a consistent feature
17 Lake Okeechobee Releases
18 Typical El Nino versus 2016 Composite of winter rainfall (Nov. Mar.) for all previous El Nino s since 1950 (top). Observed winter rainfall for 2015/2016 (bottom) Much more rainfall than expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern Gulf Coast, and the Midwest Less rainfall than expected in Southern California, desert Southwest Record winter rainfall in South Florida
19 Transition to La Nina
20 Satellite Sea Surface Temperatures
21 Resurgent La Nina? Nino 3.4 index at -0.8 C, above or near the -0.5 C threshold since mid-july (17 weeks) Wolter s MEI now slightly negative SOI was strongly positive
22 Hurricane Impacts
23 November La Nina Impacts Typical La Nina November 2016
24 December drought status
25 Consecutive Days Without Measurable Rain Birmingham s record streak ended on 11/19 with 0.01 reported, Atlanta ended at 42 days Record streaks just ended at Albany (64), Dothan (71), and Chipley (62) Record warm fall (Sept. Nov.)
26 Rainfall Last 60 Days (11/28/2016)
27 Current State of the Pacific and Spring Outlook
28 2016 Temperature Ranking
29 La Nina Last Gasps? Nino 3.4 index at -0.5 C, rignt on the -0.5 C threshold Index above the threshold previous 3 weeks (-0.4, -0.3, - 0.3)
30 Over, or Not?
31 Rainfall Last 30 Days
32 Current drought status
33 La Nina Forecast La Nina advisory issued Nov. 10 (NOAA) 40% La Nina lasts through February Neutral strongly favored this spring and early summer Models hinting at a return of El Nino this fall, much uncertainty
34 La Nina Impacts on Winter Temp. and Precip
35 Precipitation Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook Temperature
36 Take Home Messages Summer of 2016 brought a transition from strong El Nino to weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina contributed to the rapid drought onset and historically dry Fall Active pattern over the last month or more has eliminated drought conditions in the Florida Panhandle. La Nina conditions fading in the Pacific, atmosphere still responding La Nina unlikely to persist past January, Neutral conditions through mid-summer NOAA forecast reflects La Nina influences, favors warm and dry winter season could change in next update
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38 1. Climate (Basics) 2. Cotton 3. Corn 4. Soybean 5. Wheat 6. Peanuts
39 Visit Us! climatecenter.fsu.edu Newsletter AgroClimate.org
40 Mallory Swamp Fire during the last La Niña
41 Typical Wildfire Season in Florida and the Southeast The peninsula experiences an extended dry season from Oct. through April. Unlike the Western U.S., Florida s wildfire season peaks in the spring/early summer. Winter wildfires are usually cause by human activities. Late spring and early summer fires are predominantly caused by lightning and can occur in remote/inaccessible locations.
42 Wildfire Activity
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