Sierra Weather and Climate Update
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1 Sierra Weather and Climate Update Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9
2 Percent of Average Precipitation Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015
3 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015
4 Percent of Average Precipitation Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015
5 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015
6 May 2015 Precipitation Percent of Normal 01 May 2015 Thru 31 May 2015
7
8
9 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
10 thru Aug United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
11 Water Year Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011
12 Water Year Oct 2011 Thru 30 Sep 2012
13 Water Year Oct 2012 Thru 30 Sep 2013
14 Water Year Oct 2013 Thru 30 Sep 2014
15 Water Year to date 01 Oct 2014 Thru 30 Sep 2015
16 Water Year Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)
17 Water Year Precipitation Rank Oct 2014 Thru Sep 2015 Reference Period 1896 Thru 2014 Lowest 10 % Record Driest
18 Oct-Sep Temperature Rank Oct 2014 Thru Sep 2015 Reference Period Lowest 10 % Record Driest
19 Western US Temperature Percentiles Oct 2014 thru Mar 2015 Reference Period 120 Years WestWide Drought Tracker Updated Monthly WRCC
20 8-Station Index Precipitation Wettest ( ) Two driest years, ( , ) CA - DWR
21 5-Station Index Precipitation Wettest ( ) Two driest years, ( , ) CA - DWR
22 Northern Sierra Winter Season Snow Water Content wettest Average Central Sierra driest Southern Sierra Thru 01 Jun 2015 Cal DWR
23 15-Year Mean Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2015 March 29 Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL
24 Snotel Basin-Average Water Year Precipitation 2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Apr 12
25 Snotel Basin-Averaged Snow Water Equivalent 2015 April 12
26 The Great Snow Drought of Precipitation Snowpack
27 Elevation of Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City 2011 Oct 01-1 Jun 2015 Natural Rim
28 Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through October 2, 2015 (numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007) Average = thru Oct 2. Number of Fires Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center
29 Acres burned U.S. Fires through October 2, 2015 Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in Ave from = 6.25 M acres. Number of acres Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center
30 Several types of summaries And presentations available.
31 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Snow Season Oct-Mar thru California Climate Tracker
32 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru California Climate Tracker
33 Water Year Oct-Sep Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada thru
34 Tmax Tmin Water Year Oct-Sep Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895/96 thru 2014/15
35 Winter Temp Spring Temp Summer Temp Sierra Nevada thru Mar 2014 Fall Temp
36 Tmax Tmin Water Year Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895/96 thru 2014/15
37 Tmax Tmin Water Year Jun-Jul-Aug Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895 thru 2015
38 California Climate Tracker Summary Graph 12 Months Ending Sep 2015 Temperature Precipitation
39 Select: YOSE-SEKI area, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.
40 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Annual through 2013.
41 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Annual through 2014.
42 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Winter thru
43 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Spring thru 2015.
44 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Summer thru 2015.
45 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Autumn thru
46 Sierra Nevada Freezing Level vs Climatology Nov 2014 thru 10 Oct 2015
47 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Monthly. Jan 1948 thru 3 Oct January February March April May June July August September October (3 rd ) November December
48 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Water Years 1948/ /15. snow rain
49 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Winter (DJF) 1948/ /15. snow rain
50 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Spring (MAM) snow rain
51 Through September 2015 El Nino La Nina NOAA ESRL ( CDC ), Wolter and Timlin
52 Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03
53 Ocean Surface Temperature ( C ) 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03
54 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03
55 Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra
56
57
58
59
60
61 So far, so good...
62 So, what about the future???
63 Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Temperature & Precipitation Official Outlooks Three Month Winter Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of warmer / drier than usual Green / Blue - Higher likelihood of cooler / wetter than usual NOAA Climate Prediction Center
64 Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting Dec-Feb Precipitation. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi-Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2015 Sep 27
65 Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting Dec-Feb Temperature. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi-Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2015 Sep 27
66 Thank You!
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ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index