Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
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1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for U.S. Virgin Islands; British Virgin Islands; Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques; Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata; Turks and Caicos Islands; and the Southeastern Bahamas A Warning is in effect for Saba; St. Maarten; Dominican Republic, west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti; Dominican Republic, west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for St. Maarten; St. Martin and St. Barthelemy; Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 18.0 north, 65.9 west LOCATION: 30 miles (50 kilometers) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico MOVEMENT: northwest at 10 mph (17 kph) WINDS: 155 mph (250 kph) with gusts to 190 mph (305 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 150 miles (240 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 60 miles (95 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 917 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4 Hurricane 1 st LANDFALL LOCATION: Dominica 1 st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: 9:15 PM local time, September 18 (01:15 UTC, September 19) 1 st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 160 mph (260 kph) Category 5 2 nd LANDFALL LOCATION: Yabucoa, Puerto Rico 2 nd LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: 6:15 AM local time, September 20 (10:15 UTC) 2 nd LANDFALL INTENSITY: 155 mph (250 kph) Category 4 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Maria, located approximately 30 miles (50 kilometers) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, is currently tracking northwest at 10 mph (17 kph). Radar observations from San Juan and wind data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from 12 miles to 35 miles. This has likely contributed to some weakening, and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the intensity is set at 155 mph (250 kph) which is at the top of Category 4 range. Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next 5 days. The official NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above the model consensus. Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest. The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer the hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time, a break in the ridge, partially associated with Jose, should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by the end of the forecast period. The computer model track guidance remains tightly clustered through the next three days, giving fairly high confidence in the track forecast through that time. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 2
3 There is some increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest Euro (ECMWF) prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at the end of the period. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Maria's core has made landfall over Puerto Rico and is bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local officials to avoid lifethreatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Additional Information WIND: storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and are spreading over Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today. storm conditions are expected in the Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: 6 to 9 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 3
4 RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday: Central Leeward Islands: additional 1 to 2 inches Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla: additional 2 to 5 inches U.S. and British Virgin Islands: additional 8 to 12 inches (isolated 16 inches) Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches (isolated 25 inches) Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas: 2 to 4 inches Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 4
5 National Hurricane Center (NHC) Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 5
6 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 6
7 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 7
8 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 8
9 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 9
10 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Wednesday evening after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 10
11 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 11
12 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 12
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