Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border A Warning is in effect from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico; Pinar del Rio; metropolitan New Orleans; Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas; west of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Surge Warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border; northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico; metropolitan New Orleans; Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas; east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line; west of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Watch is in effect from east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida; west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana; Isle of Youth A Surge Watch is in effect from east of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 18.7 north, 85.0 west LOCATION: 175 miles (280 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico MOVEMENT: north-northwest at 21 mph (33 kph) WINDS: 50 mph (85 kph) with gusts to 65 mph (100 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 115 miles (185 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (Yucatan Peninsula) 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: LOW Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Nate, located approximately 175 miles (280 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, is currently tracking north-northwest at 21 mph (33 kph). Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nate lacks a strong inner core at this time, with the maximum winds located away from the center. The central pressure is fluctuating near 996 millibars, and the aircraftreported winds support the NHC setting an initial intensity of 50 mph (85 kph). Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Nate has been increasing during the past several hours, and that the storm has good outflow in the western semicircle. The center has moved generally northward during the past 12 hours. However, the latest aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that a north-northwestward motion is resuming. Nate is between a complex low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. This combination should steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 36 hours. After that time, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it wraps around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. While the model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, there has been a rightward shift to the latest output, likely due to the recent northward motion. The new NHC forecast track is thus also shifted to the east of the previous forecast, and it now calls for the center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 hours, followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast in the next 36 to 48 hours. Cat Alert: Nate 2

3 Conditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as a hurricane. The new NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. It should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid intensification. However, the current structure of the cyclone does not favor rapid development. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials. 3. A Hurricane Warning has been has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas. 4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these areas. 5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through tonight. Additional Information RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches (maximum 15 inches) Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches (maximum 8 inches) Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches (maximum 8 inches) Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches (maximum 12 inches) Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Cat Alert: Nate 3

4 WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border: 4 to 7 feet Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida: 2 to 4 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Nate 4

5 National Hurricane Center (NHC) Forecast Cat Alert: Nate 5

6 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Nate 6

7 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 39 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Nate 7

8 Wind Probabilities ( 58 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Nate 8

9 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 74 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Nate 9

10 NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Nate 10

11 NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Nate 11

12 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Nate 12

13 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Saturday morning after 8:00 AM Central Time (13:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Nate 13

14 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Nate 14

15 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Nate 15