Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Aucilla River; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana; Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach; west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass; Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas A Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas A Watch is in effect from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River; west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Surge Warning is in effect from Volusia/Brevard County line southward around the Florida peninsula to the Suwanee River; Florida Keys; Tampa Bay A Surge Watch is in effect from north of the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Isle of Palms, South Carolina; north of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 22.8 north, 79.8 west LOCATION: 175 miles (285 kilometers) southeast of Key West, Florida MOVEMENT: west at 9 mph (15 kph) WINDS: 125 mph (205 kph) with gusts to 155 mph (250 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 195 miles (315 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 70 miles (110 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 941 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 3 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 175 miles (285 kilometers) southeast of Key West, Florida, is currently tracking west at 9 mph (15 kph). The interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in some weakening of the hurricane. Data from an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum winds are now down to around 125 mph (205 kph) which is still a dangerous Category 3 storm. However, once the circulation moves away from Cuba, re-strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to remain a very significant hurricane for the next 2 days while moving very near the Florida peninsula. The NHC strengthens Irma back to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph (220 kph) winds. The eye has been moving toward the west at a slightly slower track. The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of the steering ridge of high pressure, and the expected turn to the northwest and north-northwest should begin soon. The forecast model track guidance is tightly packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the NHC track forecast is high. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

3 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, bringing lifethreatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. 3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Cape Sable to Captiva: 10 to 15 feet Captiva to Ana Maria Island: 6 to 10 feet Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 feet North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay: 4 to 6 feet Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 feet Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 feet Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach: 2 to 4 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Ragged Island in the Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Central and Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 feet Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3

4 WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the Hurricane Warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba: 10 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Southern Cuba: 5 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Western Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches (isolated 10 inches) The Florida Keys: 10 to 20 inches (isolated 25 inches) The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia: 8 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) The eastern Florida Panhandle: 3 to 6 inches (isolated 8 inches) Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, & western North Carolina: 4 to 8 inches Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, & southern Tennessee: 2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4

5 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5

6 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6

7 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7

8 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8

9 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9

10 NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10

11 NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11

12 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12

13 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: In order to capture the latest forecast projections for the Florida Keys and South Florida prior to any landfall, the next Cat Alert will be sent late Saturday evening after 10:00 PM Central Time (03:00 UTC Sunday). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13

14 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14

15 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 15