Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Anguilla; Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten; Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy; British Virgin Islands; U.S. Virgin Islands; Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra; Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti; Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas; Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province; Central Bahamas A Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti; Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 18.2 north, 64.0 west LOCATION: 140 miles (225 kilometers) east of San Juan, Puerto Rico MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph) WINDS: 185 mph (295 kph) with gusts to 225 mph (360 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 50 miles (85 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 918 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 5 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 140 miles (225 kilometers) east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, is currently tracking west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph). The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 119 mph (191 kph) with a gust to 155 mph (250 kph) earlier this morning before the anemometer failed. The station also reported a minimum pressure of mb. A minimum pressure of mb was reported on St. Barthelemy. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye this morning reported surface-adjusted winds of 175 mph (282 kph) in the northwestern eyewall. Assuming there are stronger winds in the northeastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 185 mph (295 kph) for this advisory. Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the storm. Irma is moving west-northwestward. A strong high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in best agreement with a suite of models, including the ECMWF (Euro). After that time, a trough moving southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in better agreement with the latest model guidance. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

3 However, it should be noted that there are numerous ensemble members of the best performing models (GEFS and ECMWF) members that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. Irma is forecast to remain within favorable atmospheric conditions and over warm waters during the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, Irma is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory through Day 4. Since the Day 5 forecast point is now offshore, the intensity forecast at that time has been adjusted accordingly. Now that Irma's eye is clearly visible in radar imagery from San Juan, Updates with hourly position estimates will be issued starting at 1200 PM AST (1600 UTC). Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and portions of Haiti, with a Hurricane Watch in effect for the central Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to some of these areas tonight through Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. Direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and rainfall are possible in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula beginning later this week and this weekend. However, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges, it is too soon to specify the location and magnitude of these impacts. Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands: 7 to 11 feet Turks and Caicos Islands: 15 to 20 feet Southeastern Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3

4 British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix: 7 to 11 feet Northern coast of Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix: 2 to 4 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue today within the Hurricane Warning area in the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic and and Haiti on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northern Leeward Islands: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix: 2 to 4 inches Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, eastern & central Cuba: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southwest Haiti: 1 to 4 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4

5 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5

6 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6

7 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7

8 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8

9 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9

10 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: This afternoon after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10

11 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11

12 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12