Current Details from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Transcription

1 Current Details from the Joint Warning Center COORDINATES: 25.0 north, east (previous location: 23.3 north, east) LOCATION: 245 kilometers (150 miles) west of Taipei, Taiwan MOVEMENT: northwestward at 20 kph (13 mph) (previous: west-northwestward at 20 kph (13 mph)) WINDS: 140 kph (85 mph) with gusts to 170 kph (105 mph) (previous: 230 kph (145 mph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 240 kilometers (150 miles) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 95 kilometers (60 miles) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 millibars (previous: 929 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 1 1 ST LANDFALL DETAILS 1 ST LANDFALL LOCATION: Near Nan ao Township, Yilin County, Taiwan 1 ST LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Approximately 05:40 PM local time, CST, September 28 (09:40 UTC) 1 ST LANDFALL INTENSITY: 220 kph (140 mph) - Category 4 2 ND LANDFALL DETAILS 2 ND LANDFALL LOCATION: Near Putian City, Fujian Province, China 2 ND LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Approximately 08:50 AM local time, CST, September 29 (00:50 UTC) 2 ND LANDFALL INTENSITY: 140 kph (85 mph) - Category 1 Latest Satellite Picture Source: University of Wisconsin (CIMSS) Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Discussion Dujuan, located approximately 245 kilometers (150 miles) west of Taipei, Taiwan, is currently tracking northwestward at 20 kph (13 mph). Dujuan made landfall over the southeastern coast of China within the past two hours and is now beginning to track inland. High-resolution, animated satellite and radar imagery shows decaying deep convection over the western semi-circle however deep convection remains tightly wrapped over water. Based on the aforementioned imagery, there is good confidence in the initial position. Dujuan remains a strong system and the current intensity is assessed at 140 kph (85 mph) based on Dvorak intensity estimates. Dujuan is currently tracking along the southwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure and is forecast to re-curve poleward ahead of an approaching midlatitude trough. The system will rapidly weaken as it tracks poleward and should dissipate completely by Wednesday evening (local time). Forecast model guidance is in tight agreement throughout the forecast period lending high confidence to the JTWC forecast. Since yesterday, numerous localities in Taiwan have accumulated more than millimeters (19.69 inches) of rainfall including: Fushan (686.5 millimeters (27.03 inches)); Tonghou (596.0 millimeters (23.46 inches)); and Fenqihu (582.0 millimeters (22.91 inches)). Wind gusts of up to 246 kph (153 mph) were reported at Su ao; 176 kph (110 mph) gusts were recorded at Yilin; while at Taipei, 130 kph (81 mph) gusts were clocked. Some 7,125 residents were evacuated in Taiwan as Dujuan made landfall and were taking refuge in 72 shelters. So far, there are no reports of any fatalities as a result of Dujuan however there were at least 50 reports of injured persons. As the typhoon passed, more than 1.2 million customers were without power and 168,500 were without water supplies. Thousands of telecommunication base stations were destroyed by the storm knocking out communications for nearly 4,000 individuals. Repairs were not expected to be completed until early next week. Transportation was severely disrupted as numerous highways were closed, high speed rail and ordinary rail services were suspended, and ferry services were cancelled. A total of 536 domestic and international flights were cancelled and a further 294 were subject to long delays. As of this writing, damage assessments were still on-going in Taiwan. In China, more than 260,000 residents were evacuated from coastal regions of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces prior to the arrival of Dujuan. More than 57,000 fishing boats and vessels were ordered to return to shore while numerous ferry and rail services and flights were cancelled. Schools and businesses in the affected provinces were expected to remain closed on Tuesday. Further information on losses/damages incurred in both Taiwan and China will be included in this Friday s Weekly Cat Report from Impact Forecasting. Cat Alert: Dujuan 2

3 Joint Warning Center Forecast Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the Joint Warning Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: This will be the final Cat Alert for Dujuan as the system has just made its final landfall in Fujian Province, China. It is now expected to dissipate rapidly as it tracks inland. Further details on damages/losses incurred in Taiwan and China as a result of the system will be included in this Friday s Weekly Cat Report from Impact Forecasting. Cat Alert: Dujuan 3

4 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE, Atlantic National Center (NHC) NW Joint Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Japan Agency (JMA) SW Fiji Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Department (IMD) Deep Moderate Intense Very Cat. 5 >140 >160 >260 Super Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cat Alert: Dujuan 4

5 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Dujuan 5