Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Indian Pass; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana; Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Warning is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County line A Surge Warning is in effect from South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet; North Miami Beach southward around the Florida Peninsula to the Ochlockonee River; Florida Keys; Tampa Bay Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 25.0 north, 81.5 west LOCATION: 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of Naples, Florida MOVEMENT: north at 9 mph (15 kph) WINDS: 130 mph (210 kph) with gusts to 160 mph (260 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 220 miles (350 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 80 miles (130 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4 Hurricane 1 st LANDFALL LOCATION: Cudjoe Key (Florida Keys) 1 st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 9:10 AM local time (13:10 UTC) 1 st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 130 mph (210 kph) Category 4 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (Florida West Coast) 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

3 Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of Naples, Florida, is currently tracking north at 9 mph (15 kph). Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds justifying the NHC maintaining Irma s intensity at 130 mph (210 kph) a Category 4 storm. Irma should maintain this intensity until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the Florida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level frontal boundary should also cause weakening of the hurricane during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma moves into the southeastern United States within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours (or sooner). The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the forecast model consensus. The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours. Irma is embedded within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The model track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered, with the ECMWF (Euro) track a little to the left and slower than the other models. The official NHC track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official forecast. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion. 2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United States. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour, will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3

4 Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Cape Sable to Captiva: 10 to 15 feet Captiva to Ana Maria Island: 6 to 10 feet Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 feet North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay: 3 to 5 feet South Santee River to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 feet Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 feet Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 2 to 4 feet North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the Hurricane Warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba: additional 1 to 3 inches (isolated 5 inches) Western Bahamas: additional 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6 inches) The Florida Keys: 15 to 20 inches (isolated 25 inches) Western Florida peninsula: 10 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 16 inches) The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern & western South Carolina, and western North Carolina: 3 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee: 2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4

5 THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5

6 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6

7 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7

8 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8

9 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9

10 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10

11 NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11

12 NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12

13 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13

14 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Sunday afternoon after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14

15 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 15

16 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 16