What s s New for 2009

Transcription

1 What s s New for 2009 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook becomes operational Special Tropical Disturbance Statement replaced with Special Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Graphic becomes operational Change in Public Advisory Repeat section Monthly Weather Summary change in content Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probability products become operational, available in one foot increments from 2 to 25 feet Storm surge information and forecasts referenced as height above ground level (inundation) Storm surge removed from the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale Website additions Experimental products

2 3 and 5 Day Error Cones slight reduction in size due to lower track errors Forecast Period (h) 2008 Circle Radius ( errors) 2009 Circle Radius ( errors)

3 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook becomes operational threshold between Low and Medium modified chance statement added to text product New Thresholds: High > 50% Medium 30 50% Low < 30% AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

4 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Low probability of genesis less than 30% Medium probability of genesis between 30 50% High probability of genesis greater than 50% A Low Chance Does Not Mean NO CHANCE of Development Low means up to a 1 in 4 or 5 chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation

6 Special Tropical Weather Outlook replaces Special Tropical Disturbance Statement issued outside of hurricane season or between regularly scheduled TWOs when an update is needed ABNT20 KNHC TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1045 AM EDT WED JUL FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BEFORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BEINVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICALCYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZEDHEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFICTO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHEROFFICE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Special added to header Product time is variable Reason given for update Updated used to signify which paragraph has been updated

7 Tropical Cyclone Wind Field becomes operational Shows: Wind field Past track Current watches/ warnings

8 Public Advisory Repeat Section modified to a form that is easier to read for both humans and computers now called the Summary section Old Version: REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION N W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB. New Version:...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT INFORMATION... LOCATION N W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB

9 Monthly Weather Summary modified to a more abbreviated version Will now only include: 1.A table including storm name, dates, maximum sustained winds, and direct death total 2.Short narrative of records of interest Now excludes long narratives for each storm, will be found in each storm s Tropical Cyclone Report

10 Storm Surge Probability becomes operational available in 1 ft increments from 2 to 25 ft run when a Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect Chance of surge > 2 ft Chance of surge > 10 ft

11 Storm Surge Inundation forecasters can toggle SLOSH output between normal and inundation modes inundation referenced in Public Advisory Old Version: COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. New Version: STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 20 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ABOUT 30 MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.

12 Height Above Reference Ground Level (Inundation) Level Sabine Lake

13 Height Above Reference Height Above Ground Level Level (Inundation) Galveston Bay

14 Height Above Reference Height Above Ground Level Level (Inundation) Matagorda Bay

15 Storm Surge Warning Review of major storms (Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Gustav, Ike) since 2004 suggests the need to better convey the threat of storm surge 2009 implement inundation graphics and user selectable storm surge probability develop Storm Surge Warning 2012 implement Storm Surge Warning

16 Current product

17 Proposed Hurricane warning (wind) and storm surge warning graphic Storm Surge Warning

18 Possible change to advisory HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL PM CDT THU SEP IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER... (DETAILS ON THE STORM SURGE WARNING IN TEXT)

19 Storm Surge Removed from Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale storm surge is modulated by more than just the wind KATRINA (3) IKE (2) CHARLEY (4)

20 Housekeeping All references to Zulu, or Z, time will be changed to UTC, per World Meteorological Organization and National Weather Service guidelines The Tropical Cyclone Discussion and Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory for each storm will be referenced in the same time zone (discussion was always referenced in Eastern Time)

21 Website Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook RSS / XML feed

22 Website Improved PDA and Smartphone Version

23 Experimental Products Podcast RSS / XML feed when media pool is activated (usually when a hurricane watch or warning is issued)

24 Experimental Products GIS Products Forecast Cone/Track/Points/ Watches and Warnings Surface Wind Field Working Best Track Wind Swath Forecast Wind Radii Breakpoints Wind Speed Probability Probabilistic Storm Surge

25 NOAA Hurricane Outlook NOAA s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Season and May 2008 Aug 2008 Activity Type Outlook Outlook Observed Activity Climatology Chance Above Average 65% 85% Above Average 33% Chance Near Average 25% 10% 33% Chance Below Average 10% 5% 33% Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes Acc. Cyclone Energy % % 166% 100%

26 It only takes one What if the pre season forecast called for?... 6 named storms 4 hurricanes 1 major hurricane 1992 Hurricane Andrew in South Florida!! National Hurricane Preparedness Week