RSMC-Miami Update Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Transcription

1 RSMC-Miami Update 2016 Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist

2 L-0324 Emergency Management Hurricane Preparedness Training Course Funding provided by FEMA s National Hurricane Program - partnership between FEMA, NHC, and USACE First offered in ½ day in-residence course at NHC that is hands-on, exercise focused Tailored to each region s participants (Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Northeast U.S.) Focuses on the storm surge hazard since that is what drives hurricane evacuations

3 L-0324 EM Course Objectives Describe the NHC forecast process and products Explain the uncertainties of NHC forecasts that must be considered in emergency management decision making Describe how to use NHC storm surge information Explain the components of Hurricane Evacuation Studies and how to plan for a hurricane threat Identify the resources available for evacuation decision making

4 L-0324 Breakout Sessions and Exercises NHC products and wind speed probabilities Storm surge build-a-storm Break-out round robin sessions Hurricane Evacuation Studies HURREVAC Training NHC Operations Build-a-hurricane evacuation zone exercise Hurricane decision making exercise

5 Online Training New storm surge and tropical cyclone related COMET modules online Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Storm Surge and Datums Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Determining the Onset and Risk of Tropical Cyclone Winds Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty Real-Time Storm Surge Products (Spring 2016)

6 Spanish-language Website Florida International University huracanes.fiu.edu

7 Real-time NHC Storm Surge Products Watch/Warning Graphic Primary audience is the general public. Highlights areas that have a significant risk of lifethreatening surge, but does not provide any quantitative inundation levels. Although driven by objective guidance, W/W areas also based on subjective factors such as forecaster confidence, continuity with previous issuances, wind trigger, smoothing, isolated areas, etc. Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map Intended for decision makers. Objective guidance on where inundation from surge couldoccur and height above ground the water could reach. Based solely on the latest NHC forecast and historical error characteristics. No guaranteed continuity from cycle to cycle, or consistency with W/W graphic.

8 Enhanced Messaging Key messages added to the NHC Tropical Cyclone Discussion Hurricane Joaquin Hurricane Patricia

9 Enhanced Messaging Shared on Social Media

10 Enhanced Messaging NHC Special Messages Example of special messages that are posted to the NHC website and Twitter simultaneously to indicate NHC advisory intentions.

11 Prototype Time of Arrival Graphic Uses timing information from the NHC wind speed probabilities Accounts for typical track, intensity, and size forecast uncertainty Provides graphical depiction of potential arrival times of tropicalstorm-force winds

12 Social Science Testing Continues Colors vs. Grey Scale

13 Forecast Challenges 2015 Bill s Development Near the Coast Tropical Storm Bill made landfall along the coast of Texas less than 18 hours after formation.

14 Need For Watches and Warnings Before Formation Tropical cyclone development close to the coast highlights a current limitation in the NWS tropical cyclone watch/warning program. Humberto 2007 Not a new issue, but one that has been discussed within the NWS tropical cyclone program several times during the past couple of decades. Tomas 2010 What has changed is NHC s ability to anticipate and forecast tropical cyclone formation.

15 Forecasts and Warnings for Potential Tropical Cyclones Broaden the definition of tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings to allow their use for disturbances Regular watch/warning criteria would apply Watch possible within 48 h Warning expected within 36 h Issued through the standard suite of NHC advisory products Potential Tropical Cyclone Current numbering system (for depressions) would apply Possible implementation in 2017

16 Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories Advisories would issued for disturbances requiring watches and/or warnings Same general criteria for international land areas system expected to produce tropicalstorm-force winds or greater over land areas 5-day track and intensity forecast Issued through standard NHC advisory products at typical advisory times Public Advisory Forecast Advisory Discussion Wind Speed Probabilities Cone graphic POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL PM CDT WED JUN TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM......TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION N 86.5W ABOUT 310 MI KM SW OF TAMPA ABOUT 320 MI KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued fro the west coast of Florida from Boca Grande to Ochlockonee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... The west coast of Florida from Boca Grande to Ochlocknee River

17 Naming and Numbering System for Potential Tropical Cyclones Similar naming/numbering rules that are currently in place to designate tropical depressions. Both depression and potential tropical cyclones would draw designations sequentially from the list One, Two, Three, etc. The designation would match the number of systems within a basin that advisories had been written on in a given year. When a potential tropical cyclone becomes a depression the number would not change.

18 Benefits to Issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories Increase public awareness of the hazards associated with tropical cyclones that form near land. Allows the issuance of timely tropical storm and/or hurricane watches and warnings. Issuance through already established NHC product suite and numbering system maintains a unified set of products and time frame for all NHC advisory products. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Sunday June 14, PM CDT Advisory Pre-Bill (2015) forecast with recommended tropical storm warning area highlighted

19 Concerns of Issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories and Warnings Earlier NHC advisories for disturbances that could pose a long-range threat to other land areas Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Monday August 1, AM EDT Advisory Pre-Emily (2011) forecast as it was entering the Caribbean with the 5-day cone showing a threat to Florida. This forecast was created about 18 hour prior to the first NHC advisory.

20 Concerns of Issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories and Warnings Forecasts are likely to have greater uncertainty Would likely be represented by a larger cone False alarms and minimal impacts could reduce the longterm effectiveness of watches & warnings False alarms and increased uncertainty could affect the reputation & trust of current NWS/NHC tropical cyclone forecasts. Average NHC track errors by initial intensity. Note the much larger 4- and 5-day track errors for tropical depression and weak (<50 kt) tropical storms.

21 Questions/Comments