Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas; Northwestern Bahamas (including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence); The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bimini; Andros Island A Warning is in effect for the remainder of the southeastern Bahamas (including the Turks and Caicos Islands); Andros Island Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 23.0 north, 73.9 west (previous location: 24.7 north, 72.6 west) LOCATION: 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of San Salvador MOVEMENT: southwest at 6 mph (9 kph) (previous: southwest at 6 mph (9 kph)) WINDS: 125 mph (205 kph) with gusts to 155 mph (250 kph) (previous: 80 mph (130 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 140 miles (220 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 45 miles (75 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 millibars (previous: 971 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 3 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (crossing Bahaman islands) 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: MEDIUM Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Discussion Major Hurricane Joaquin, located approximately 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of San Salvador, is currently tracking southwest at 6 mph (9 kph). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 135 mph (215 kph) surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall this morning and a central pressure of 942 millibars. Based on these data, the NHC advisory intensity has been increased to 125 mph (205 kph). Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast feature, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical wind shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48 to 96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing wind shear. However, several of the forecast models predict the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure (which indicate more favorable atmospheric conditions for intensification). The new NHC forecast continues to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion remains towards the southwest. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge of high pressure located to the north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The forecast models show this trough evolving into a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours, and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent and spread. One cluster of models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States. Another model (the ECMWF) continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. Yet another cluster (including the GFS) are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the large spread and the possibility that the next round of model guidance could show additional changes, the NHC forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. The NHC notes that further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. Key Messages from the NHC 1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is still low, since there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely not occur until at least Friday morning. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 2

3 4. It remains too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. Additional Details Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight. Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 3

4 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 4

5 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 5

6 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 6

7 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 7

8 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 8

9 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: This afternoon after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 9

10 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) NW Pacific Joint Typhoon W arning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 10

11 About, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be us ed to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Major Hurricane Joaquin 11